混合性心脏瓣膜病相关年龄校正合并症指数的构建及其对患者预后的预测价值

目的构建混合性心脏瓣膜病（MVHD）相关年龄校正合并症指数（MVACI）模型，明确其在MVHD患者预后预测中的价值。方法纳入China-VHD研究中4080例中重度MVHD患者。以2年全因死亡率为主要终点，基于多因素Cox回归分析中P&lt;0.05的年龄和合并症变量构建MVACI模型。绘制限制性立方样条曲线评估MVACI评分与2年全因死亡率的关系。以受试者操作特征（ROC）曲线分析约登指数最大点为阈值对患者进行分层，构建Kaplan-Meier曲线，采用Log-rank检验进行比较。通过单因素和多因素Cox比例风险模型计算风险比（HR）及95%置信区间（CI），评估MVACI评分与死亡率之间的关联。采用配对ROC曲线比较MVACI评分与欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统Ⅱ（EuroSCORE Ⅱ）或年龄校正Charlson合并症指数（ACCI）预测2年临床结局的区分度的优劣性，校准曲线评估这些模型的校准度；并采用Bootstrap方法进行内部验证。根据病因、治疗策略和疾病严重程度对患者进行亚组分析。结果多因素分析确定与患者2年全因死亡率独立相关的合并症/年龄变量，包括肺动脉高压、心肌病、心力衰竭、低体重、贫血、低蛋白血症、肾功能不全、恶性肿瘤、纽约心脏协会（NYHA）心功能分级和年龄。基于这些变量构建的MVACI模型评分与MVHD患者全因死亡风险独立相关（均P&lt;0.01），且具有较好的区分度［曲线下面积（AUC）=0.777，95%CI：0.755~0.799］和校准度（Brier评分为0.062），其预测价值明显优于EuroSCORE Ⅱ或ACCI（均P&lt;0.01）。内部验证结果显示，MVACI模型对中重度MVHD患者2年全因死亡风险的预测概率与实际概率基本一致，且对不同时间点全因死亡风险预测的AUC均在0.750以上，对不良事件预测的AUC在0.630以上。亚组分析结果证实，无论患者病因、治疗方案和MVHD分期如何，MVACI评分均具有较高的预后预测价值。结论基于年龄和合并症变量构建的MVACI模型可用于MVHD患者的死亡风险预测和危险分层，该评分算法简单，便于临床应用。</sec

Prediction of Energy Resolution in the JUNO Experiment

International audienceThis paper presents the energy resolution study in the JUNO experiment, incorporating the latest knowledge acquired during the detector construction phase. The determination of neutrino mass ordering in JUNO requires an exceptional energy resolution better than 3% at 1 MeV. To achieve this ambitious goal, significant efforts have been undertaken in the design and production of the key components of the JUNO detector. Various factors affecting the detection of inverse beta decay signals have an impact on the energy resolution, extending beyond the statistical fluctuations of the detected number of photons, such as the properties of liquid scintillator, performance of photomultiplier tubes, and the energy reconstruction algorithm. To account for these effects, a full JUNO simulation and reconstruction approach is employed. This enables the modeling of all relevant effects and the evaluation of associated inputs to accurately estimate the energy resolution. The study reveals an energy resolution of 2.95% at 1 MeV. Furthermore, the study assesses the contribution of major effects to the overall energy resolution budget. This analysis serves as a reference for interpreting future measurements of energy resolution during JUNO data taking. Moreover, it provides a guideline in comprehending the energy resolution characteristics of liquid scintillator-based detectors

Determination of the number of ψ(3686) events taken at BESIII

The number of ψ(3686) events collected by the BESIII detector during the 2021 run period is determined to be (2259.3±11.1)×106 by counting inclusive ψ(3686) hadronic events. The uncertainty is systematic and the statistical uncertainty is negligible. Meanwhile, the numbers of ψ(3686) events collected during the 2009 and 2012 run periods are updated to be (107.7±0.6)×106 and (345.4±2.6)×106, respectively. Both numbers are consistent with the previous measurements within one standard deviation. The total number of ψ(3686) events in the three data samples is (2712.4±14.3)×10^

JUNO Sensitivity on Proton Decay p→νˉK+p\to \bar\nu K^+ Searches

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits to suppress the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ is 36.9% with a background level of 0.2 events after 10 years of data taking. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel

JUNO sensitivity on proton decay p → ν K + searches*

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this study, the potential of searching for proton decay in the $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated. The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits suppression of the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ is 36.9% ± 4.9% with a background level of $0.2\pm 0.05({\rm syst})\pm$$0.2({\rm stat})$ events after 10 years of data collection. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years of exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, which is competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel and complements the use of different detection technologies