Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page

Migration energy aware reconfigurations of virtual network function instances in NFV architectures

Network function virtualization (NFV) is a new network architecture framework that implements network functions in software running on a pool of shared commodity servers. NFV can provide the infrastructure flexibility and agility needed to successfully compete in today's evolving communications landscape. Any service is represented by a service function chain (SFC) that is a set of VNFs to be executed according to a given order. The running of VNFs needs the instantiation of VNF instances (VNFIs) that are software modules executed on virtual machines. This paper deals with the migration problem of the VNFIs needed in the low traffic periods to turn OFF servers and consequently to save energy consumption. Though the consolidation allows for energy saving, it has also negative effects as the quality of service degradation or the energy consumption needed for moving the memories associated to the VNFI to be migrated. We focus on cold migration in which virtual machines are redundant and suspended before performing migration. We propose a migration policy that determines when and where to migrate VNFI in response to changes to SFC request intensity. The objective is to minimize the total energy consumption given by the sum of the consolidation and migration energies. We formulate the energy aware VNFI migration problem and after proving that it is NP-hard, we propose a heuristic based on the Viterbi algorithm able to determine the migration policy with low computational complexity. The results obtained by the proposed heuristic show how the introduced policy allows for a reduction of the migration energy and consequently lower total energy consumption with respect to the traditional policies. The energy saving can be on the order of 40% with respect to a policy in which migration is not performed

Applications of Trajectory Data From the Perspective of a Road Transportation Agency: Literature Review and Maryland Case Study

Transportation agencies have an opportunity to leverage increasingly-available trajectory datasets to improve their analyses and decision-making processes. However, this data is typically purchased from vendors, which means agencies must understand its potential benefits beforehand in order to properly assess its value relative to the cost of acquisition. While the literature concerned with trajectory data is rich, it is naturally fragmented and focused on technical contributions in niche areas, which makes it difficult for government agencies to assess its value across different transportation domains. To overcome this issue, the current paper explores trajectory data from the perspective of a road transportation agency interested in acquiring trajectories to enhance its analyses. The paper provides a literature review illustrating applications of trajectory data in six areas of road transportation systems analysis: demand estimation, modeling human behavior, designing public transit, traffic performance measurement and prediction, environment and safety. In addition, it visually explores 20 million GPS traces in Maryland, illustrating existing and suggesting new applications of trajectory data

Opportunities and challenges of geospatial analysis for promoting urban livability in the era of big data and machine learning

Urban systems involve a multitude of closely intertwined components, which are more measurable than before due to new sensors, data collection, and spatio-temporal analysis methods. Turning these data into knowledge to facilitate planning efforts in addressing current challenges of urban complex systems requires advanced interdisciplinary analysis methods, such as urban informatics or urban data science. Yet, by applying a purely data-driven approach, it is too easy to get lost in the ‘forest’ of data, and to miss the ‘trees’ of successful, livable cities that are the ultimate aim of urban planning. This paper assesses how geospatial data, and urban analysis, using a mixed methods approach, can help to better understand urban dynamics and human behavior, and how it can assist planning efforts to improve livability. Based on reviewing state-of-the-art research the paper goes one step further and also addresses the potential as well as limitations of new data sources in urban analytics to get a better overview of the whole ‘forest’ of these new data sources and analysis methods. The main discussion revolves around the reliability of using big data from social media platforms or sensors, and how information can be extracted from massive amounts of data through novel analysis methods, such as machine learning, for better-informed decision making aiming at urban livability improvement

A survey of online data-driven proactive 5G network optimisation using machine learning

In the fifth-generation (5G) mobile networks, proactive network optimisation plays an important role in meeting the exponential traffic growth, more stringent service requirements, and to reduce capitaland operational expenditure. Proactive network optimisation is widely acknowledged as on e of the most promising ways to transform the 5G network based on big data analysis and cloud-fog-edge computing, but there are many challenges. Proactive algorithms will require accurate forecasting of highly contextualised traffic demand and quantifying the uncertainty to drive decision making with performance guarantees. Context in Cyber-Physical-Social Systems (CPSS) is often challenging to uncover, unfolds over time, and even more difficult to quantify and integrate into decision making. The first part of the review focuses on mining and inferring CPSS context from heterogeneous data sources, such as online user-generated-content. It will examine the state-of-the-art methods currently employed to infer location, social behaviour, and traffic demand through a cloud-edge computing framework; combining them to form the input to proactive algorithms. The second part of the review focuses on exploiting and integrating the demand knowledge for a range of proactive optimisation techniques, including the key aspects of load balancing, mobile edge caching, and interference management. In both parts, appropriate state-of-the-art machine learning techniques (including probabilistic uncertainty cascades in proactive optimisation), complexity-performance trade-offs, and demonstrative examples are presented to inspire readers. This survey couples the potential of online big data analytics, cloud-edge computing, statistical machine learning, and proactive network optimisation in a common cross-layer wireless framework. The wider impact of this survey includes better cross-fertilising the academic fields of data analytics, mobile edge computing, AI, CPSS, and wireless communications, as well as informing the industry of the promising potentials in this area

Human mobility:Models and applications

Recent years have witnessed an explosion of extensive geolocated datasets related to human movement, enabling scientists to quantitatively study individual and collective mobility patterns, and to generate models that can capture and reproduce the spatiotemporal structures and regularities in human trajectories. The study of human mobility is especially important for applications such as estimating migratory flows, traffic forecasting, urban planning, and epidemic modeling. In this survey, we review the approaches developed to reproduce various mobility patterns, with the main focus on recent developments. This review can be used both as an introduction to the fundamental modeling principles of human mobility, and as a collection of technical methods applicable to specific mobility-related problems. The review organizes the subject by differentiating between individual and population mobility and also between short-range and long-range mobility. Throughout the text the description of the theory is intertwined with real-world applications.Comment: 126 pages, 45+ figure

Human mobility: Models and applications

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordRecent years have witnessed an explosion of extensive geolocated datasets related to human movement, enabling scientists to quantitatively study individual and collective mobility patterns, and to generate models that can capture and reproduce the spatiotemporal structures and regularities in human trajectories. The study of human mobility is especially important for applications such as estimating migratory flows, traffic forecasting, urban planning, and epidemic modeling. In this survey, we review the approaches developed to reproduce various mobility patterns, with the main focus on recent developments. This review can be used both as an introduction to the fundamental modeling principles of human mobility, and as a collection of technical methods applicable to specific mobility-related problems. The review organizes the subject by differentiating between individual and population mobility and also between short-range and long-range mobility. Throughout the text the description of the theory is intertwined with real-world applications.US Army Research Offic

Agricultural land systems : modelling past, present and future regional dynamics

This thesis arises from the understanding of how the integration of concepts, tools, techniques, and methods from geographic information science (GIS) can provide a formalised knowledge base for agricultural land systems in response to future agricultural and food system challenges. To that end, this thesis focuses on understanding the potential application of GIS-based approaches and available spatial data sources for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics in Portugal. The specific objectives of this thesis are addressed in seven chapters in Parts II through V, each corresponding to one scientific article that was either published or is being considered for publication in peer-reviewed international scientific journals. In Part II, Chapter 2 summarises the body of knowledge and provides the context for the contribution of this thesis within the scientific domain of agricultural land systems. In Part III, Chapters 3 and 4 explore remotely sensed and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) data, multitemporal and multisensory approaches, and a variety of statistical methods for mapping, quantifying, and assessing regional agricultural land dynamics in the Beja district. In Part IV, Chapters 5–7 explore the CA-Markov model, Markov chain model, machine learning, and model-agnostic approach, as well as a set of spatial metrics and statistical methods for modelling the factors and spatiotemporal changes of agricultural land use in the Beja district. In Part V, Chapter 8 explores an area-weighting GIS-based technique, a spatiotemporal data cube, and statistical methods to model the spatial distribution across time for regional agricultural production in Portugal. The case studies in the thesis contribute practical and theoretical knowledge by demonstrating the strengths and limitations of several GIS-based approaches. Together, the case studies demonstrate the underlying principles that underpin each approach in a way that allows us to infer their potentiality and appropriateness for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics, stimulating further research along this line. Generally, this thesis partly reflects the state-of-art of land-use modelling and contribute significantly to the introduction of advances in agricultural system modelling research and land-system science

Mapping Emotional Attachment as a Measure of Sense of Place to Identify Coastal Restoration Priority Areas

Our applied case study demonstrates how knowledge from community stakeholders about emotional attachment (as a key component of sense of place) can inform and influence future coastal restoration priorities at various scales in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida (USA). We map aggregate measures of emotional attachment from community stakeholders using Geographic Information Systems. We then analyze this human systems level data with kernel density estimation measures at the broader lagoon scale and with inverse distance weighted measures at more localized scales. By connecting these mapped results back to the primary reasons that participants provided for having high or low emotional attachment in a location, we show how varying spatial patterns of emotional attachment as a primary component of sense of place within and across broader geographic regions can be represented, mapped, and visualized to enhance future restoration priorities. We demonstrate how aggregate results gained from community stakeholders can help restoration teams prioritize their science communication and education strategies to align human systems level data with natural systems level data