User Acquisition and Engagement in Digital News Media

Generating revenue has been a major issue for the news industry and journalism over the past decade. In fact, vast availability of free online news sources causes online news media agencies to face user acquisition and engagement as pressing issues more than before. Although digital news media agencies are seeking sustainable relationships with their users, their current business models do not satisfy this demand. As a matter of fact, they need to understand and predict how much an article can engage a reader as a crucial step in attracting readers, and then maximize the engagement using some strategies. Moreover, news media companies need effective algorithmic tools to identify users who are prone to subscription. Last but not least, online news agencies need to make smarter decisions in the way that they deliver articles to users to maximize the potential benefits. In this dissertation, we take the first steps towards achieving these goals and investigate these challenges from data mining /machine learning perspectives. First, we investigate the problem of understanding and predicting article engagement in terms of dwell time as one of the most important factors in digital news media. In particular, we design data exploratory models studying the textual elements (e.g., events, emotions) involved in article stories, and find their relationships with the engagement patterns. In the prediction task, we design a framework to predict the article dwell time based on a deep neural network architecture which exploits the interactions among important elements (i.e., augmented features) in the article content as well as the neural representation of the content to achieve the better performance. In the second part of the dissertation, we address the problem of identifying valuable visitors who are likely to subscribe in the future. We suggest that the decision for subscription is not a sudden, instantaneous action, but it is the informed decision based on positive experience with the newspaper. As such, we propose effective engagement measures and show that they are effective in building the predictive model for subscription. We design a model that predicts not only the potential subscribers but also the time that a user would subscribe. In the last part of this thesis, we consider the paywall problem in online newspapers. The traditional paywall method offers a non-subscribed reader a fixed number of free articles in a period of time (e.g., a month), and then directs the user to the subscription page for further reading. We argue that there is no direct relationship between the number of paywalls presented to readers and the number of subscriptions, and that this artificial barrier, if not used well, may disengage potential subscribers and thus may not well serve its purpose of increasing revenue. We propose an adaptive paywall mechanism to balance the benefit of showing an article against that of displaying the paywall (i.e., terminating the session). We first define the notion of cost and utility that are used to define an objective function for optimal paywall decision making. Then, we model the problem as a stochastic sequential decision process. Finally, we propose an efficient policy function for paywall decision making. All the proposed models are evaluated on real datasets from The Globe and Mail which is a major newspaper in Canada. However, the proposed techniques are not limited to any particular dataset or strict requirement. Alternatively, they are designed based on the datasets and settings which are available and common to most of newspapers. Therefore, the models are general and can be applied by any online newspaper to improve user engagement and acquisition

Web usage mining for click fraud detection

Estágio realizado na AuditMark e orientado pelo Eng.º Pedro FortunaTese de mestrado integrado. Engenharia Informática e Computação. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201

Recommender Systems for Scientific and Technical Information Providers

Providers of scientific and technical information are a promising application area of recommender systems due to high search costs for their goods and the general problem of assessing the quality of information products. Nevertheless, the usage of recommendation services in this market is still in its infancy. This book presents economical concepts, statistical methods and algorithms, technical architectures, as well as experiences from case studies on how recommender systems can be integrated

Analysis of Clickstream Data

This thesis is concerned with providing further statistical development in the area of web usage analysis to explore web browsing behaviour patterns. We received two data sources: web log files and operational data files for the websites, which contained information on online purchases. There are many research question regarding web browsing behaviour. Specifically, we focused on the depth-of-visit metric and implemented an exploratory analysis of this feature using clickstream data. Due to the large volume of data available in this context, we chose to present effect size measures along with all statistical analysis of data. We introduced two new robust measures of effect size for two-sample comparison studies for Non-normal situations, specifically where the difference of two populations is due to the shape parameter. The proposed effect sizes perform adequately for non-normal data, as well as when two distributions differ from shape parameters. We will focus on conversion analysis, to investigate the causal relationship between the general clickstream information and online purchasing using a logistic regression approach. The aim is to find a classifier by assigning the probability of the event of online shopping in an e-commerce website. We also develop the application of a mixture of hidden Markov models (MixHMM) to model web browsing behaviour using sequences of web pages viewed by users of an e-commerce website. The mixture of hidden Markov model will be performed in the Bayesian context using Gibbs sampling. We address the slow mixing problem of using Gibbs sampling in high dimensional models, and use the over-relaxed Gibbs sampling, as well as forward-backward EM algorithm to obtain an adequate sample of the posterior distributions of the parameters. The MixHMM provides an advantage of clustering users based on their browsing behaviour, and also gives an automatic classification of web pages based on the probability of observing web page by visitors in the website

A multi-tier framework for dynamic data collection, analysis, and visualization

Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 52-53).This thesis describes a framework for collecting, analyzing, and visualizing dynamic data, particularly data gathered through Web questionnaires. The framework addresses challenges such as promoting user participation, handling missing or invalid data, and streamlining the data interpretation process. Tools in the framework provide an intuitive way to build robust questionnaires on the Web and perform on-the-fly analysis and visualization of results. A novel 2.5-dimensional dynamic response-distribution visualization allows subjects to compare their results against others immediately after they have submitted their response, thereby encouraging active participation in ongoing research studies. Other modules offer the capability to quickly gain insight and discover patterns in user data. The framework has been implemented in a multi-tier architecture within an open-source, Java-based platform. It is incorporated into Risk Psychology Network, a research and educational project at MIT's Laboratory for Financial Engineering.by Xian Ke.M.Eng

Analyzing Granger causality in climate data with time series classification methods

Attribution studies in climate science aim for scientifically ascertaining the influence of climatic variations on natural or anthropogenic factors. Many of those studies adopt the concept of Granger causality to infer statistical cause-effect relationships, while utilizing traditional autoregressive models. In this article, we investigate the potential of state-of-the-art time series classification techniques to enhance causal inference in climate science. We conduct a comparative experimental study of different types of algorithms on a large test suite that comprises a unique collection of datasets from the area of climate-vegetation dynamics. The results indicate that specialized time series classification methods are able to improve existing inference procedures. Substantial differences are observed among the methods that were tested

Kolmogorov Complexity in perspective. Part II: Classification, Information Processing and Duality

We survey diverse approaches to the notion of information: from Shannon entropy to Kolmogorov complexity. Two of the main applications of Kolmogorov complexity are presented: randomness and classification. The survey is divided in two parts published in a same volume. Part II is dedicated to the relation between logic and information system, within the scope of Kolmogorov algorithmic information theory. We present a recent application of Kolmogorov complexity: classification using compression, an idea with provocative implementation by authors such as Bennett, Vitanyi and Cilibrasi. This stresses how Kolmogorov complexity, besides being a foundation to randomness, is also related to classification. Another approach to classification is also considered: the so-called "Google classification". It uses another original and attractive idea which is connected to the classification using compression and to Kolmogorov complexity from a conceptual point of view. We present and unify these different approaches to classification in terms of Bottom-Up versus Top-Down operational modes, of which we point the fundamental principles and the underlying duality. We look at the way these two dual modes are used in different approaches to information system, particularly the relational model for database introduced by Codd in the 70's. This allows to point out diverse forms of a fundamental duality. These operational modes are also reinterpreted in the context of the comprehension schema of axiomatic set theory ZF. This leads us to develop how Kolmogorov's complexity is linked to intensionality, abstraction, classification and information system.Comment: 43 page