Rapid response to abalone virus depletion in western Victoria: information acquisition and reef code assessment

Future management of disease-affected abalone must adapt to the changing circumstances, and adopting a precautionary approach will allow maximum potential for stock recovery. This approach is mandated by the observation that no documented examples are known of abalone populations recovering from catastrophic impacts such as have occurred in the abalone fisheries of Victoria's Western and Central zones. Indeed the balance of international evidence points towards the contrary, so these fisheries are in dangerous territory. This need not mean that recovery cannot occur. However, the modelling results from this project confirm the above precautionary view and suggest that unless it is known with certainty that disease-induced mortalities have been moderate (less than 40%), then any resumption of fishing in the near term risks the future of the fishery. Acquisition of accurate mortality data is the only basis upon which fishing can recommence in the short term (within 5 years) and in many instances, such as for some among those reefs considered in our study, the opportunity has passed. The simulation results provide guidance, but their validity is conditional on myriad assumptions as well as on the accuracy of data employed. We already know that catches early in the fishery’s history were higher than reported officially, but how much higher is conjecture. Growth is highly variable over small spatial scales and feedback effects from reduced abundance together with changed size structure and persistence of habitat will play roles in determining the rate, if any, of recovery. The extent of the contemporary illegal catch is uncertain, particularly given the unprecedented closure of the fisheries. The results show that even small illegal catches can significantly degrade recovery where the viral impact is high, with clear implications for the enforcement aspects of managing these fisheries

The effectiveness of policies to control a human influenza pandemic : a literature review

The studies reviewed in this paper indicate that with adequate preparedness planning and execution it is possible to contain pandemic influenza outbreaks where they occur, for viral strains of moderate infectiousness. For viral strains of higher infectiousness, containment may be difficult, but it may be possible to mitigate the effects of the spread of pandemic influenza within a country and/or internationally with a combination of policies suited to the origins and nature of the initial outbreak. These results indicate the likelihood of containment success in'frontline risk'countries, given specific resource availability and level of infectiousness; as well as mitigation success in'secondary'risk countries, given the assumption of inevitable international transmission through air travel networks. However, from the analysis of the modeling results on interventions in the U.S. and U.K. after a global pandemic starts, there is a basis for arguing that the emphasis in the secondary risk countries could shift from mitigation towards containment. This follows since a mitigation-focused strategy in such developed countries presupposes that initial outbreak containment in these countries will necessarily fail. This is paradoxical if containment success at similar infectiousness of the virus is likely in developing countries with lower public health resources, based on results using similar modeling methodologies. Such a shift in emphasis could have major implications for global risk management for diseases of international concern such as pandemic influenza or a SARS-like disease.Avian Flu,Disease Control&Prevention,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population Policies,HIV AIDS

Exploring the integration of traditional and molecular epidemiological methods for infectious disease outbreaks

BACKGROUND: Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious pathogens is critical to developing effective public health strategies. Traditionally, time consuming epidemiological methods were used, often limited by incomplete or inaccurate datasets. Novel phylogenetic techniques can determine transmission events, but have rarely been used in real-time outbreak settings to inform interventions and limit the impact of outbreaks. METHODS: I undertook a series of novel studies to explore the utility of combining phylogenetics with traditional epidemiological analysis to enhance the understanding of transmission dynamics. I investigated HIV in an endemic South African setting and Ebola in an acute outbreak in Sierra Leone. The strengths and limitations of this combined approach are explored, ethical issues investigated and recommendations made regarding the implications of this work for public health. RESULTS: Phylogenetics provides an exciting and synergistic tool to epidemiological analysis in outbreak investigation and control. These combined methods enable a more detailed understanding than is possible through either discipline alone. My key findings include: • Identification of infection source: Phylogenetics gives new insight into the role of external introductions (e.g. migrators) in driving and sustaining the high incidence of HIV. • Earlier identification of new emerging clusters: I identified a new cluster of HIV from around a mining community. This is one of the first examples of molecular methods detecting a previously unknown outbreak. • Identification of novel mechanisms of transmission: This work suggests that children may have been infected by playing in puddles contaminated with Ebola, a previously unrecognised route of transmission. CONCLUSION: The integration of these two methods facilitate sophisticated real-time techniques to maximise understanding of transmission dynamics, allowing faster and more effectively targeted interventions. Moving forwards, sequence data should be incorporated into standard outbreak investigation. This is critical at a time when infectious disease outbreaks have led to the some of the most significant global health threats of the recent past

The origins of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Ecuador following increased migration from Venezuela and Colombia

This work was funded by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch (AFHSB) and its Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (GEIS) Section, FY2018 ProMIS ID P0108_18_WR.Background: In recent years, Ecuador and other South American countries have experienced an increase in arboviral diseases. A rise in dengue infections was followed by introductions of chikungunya and Zika, two viruses never before seen in many of these areas. Furthermore, the latest socioeconomic and political instability in Venezuela and the mass migration of its population into the neighboring countries has given rise to concerns of infectious disease spillover and escalation of arboviral spread in the region. Results: We performed phylogeographic analyses of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus genomes sampled from a surveillance site in Ecuador in 2014-2015, along with genomes from the surrounding countries. Our results revealed at least two introductions of DENV, in 2011 and late 2013, that initially originated from Venezuela and/or Colombia. The introductions were subsequent to increases in the influx of Venezuelan and Colombian citizens into Ecuador, which in 2013 were 343% and 214% higher than in 2009, respectively. However, we show that Venezuela has historically been an important source of DENV dispersal in this region, even before the massive exodus of its population, suggesting already established paths of viral distribution. Like DENV, CHIKV was introduced into Ecuador at multiple time points in 2013-2014, but unlike DENV, these introductions were associated with the Caribbean. Our findings indicated no direct CHIKV connection between Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela as of 2015, suggesting that CHIKV was, at this point, not following the paths of DENV spread. Conclusion: Our results reveal that Ecuador is vulnerable to arbovirus import from many geographic locations, emphasizing the need of continued surveillance and more diversified prevention strategies. Importantly, increase in human movement along established paths of viral dissemination, combined with regional outbreaks and epidemics, may facilitate viral spread and lead to novel virus introductions. Thus, strengthening infectious disease surveillance and control along migration routes and improving access to healthcare for the vulnerable populations is of utmost importance.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases

The term “pathogen emergence” encompasses everything from previously unidentified viruses entering the human population to established pathogens invading new populations and the evolution of drug resistance. Mathematical models of emergent pathogens allow forecasts of case numbers, investigation of transmission mechanisms, and evaluation of control options. Yet, there are numerous limitations and pitfalls to their use, often driven by data scarcity. Growing availability of data on pathogen genetics and human ecology, coupled with computational and methodological innovations, is amplifying the power of models to inform the public health response to emergence events. Tighter integration of infectious disease models with public health practice and development of resources at the ready has the potential to increase the timeliness and quality of responses

Progress in human picornavirus research : New findings from the AIROPico consortium

Several research groups in Europe are active on different aspects of human picornavirus research. The AIROPico (Academia-Industry R&D Opportunities for Picornaviruses) consortium combined the disciplines of pathogenesis, diagnostics and therapy development in order to fill the gaps in our understanding of how picornaviruses cause human disease and how to combat them. AIROPico was the first EU consortium dedicated to human picornavirus research and development, and has largely accelerated and improved R&D on picornavirus biology, diagnostics and therapy. In this article, we present the progress on pathogenesis, diagnostics and treatment strategy developments for human picornaviruses resulting from the structured, translational research approach of the AIROPico consortium. We here summarize new insights in protection against infection by maternal or cross-protective antibodies, the visualisation of interactions between virus and neutralizing antibodies by cryoEM structural imaging, and the outcomes from a picornavirus-infected human 3D organoid. Progress in molecular detection and a fast typing assay for rhinovirus species are presented, as well as the identification of new compounds potentially interesting as therapeutic compounds.Peer reviewe

Epidemics and control strategies for diseases of farmed salmonids: A parameter study

AbstractThe susceptibility of the English and Welsh fish farming and fisheries industry to emergent diseases is assessed using a stochastic simulation model. The model dynamics operate on a network comprising directed transport and river contacts, as well as undirected local and fomite transmissions. The directed connections cause outward transmission risk to be geographically more confined than inward risk. We consider reactive, proactive, and hybrid methods of control which correspond to a mixture of policy and the ease of disease detection. An explicit investigation of the impact of laboratory capacity is made. General quantified guidelines are derived to mitigate future epidemics

Unwarranted variation in health care

On cover: "Unwarranted variation in health care; Keynote speaker: John E. Wennberg."Includes lists of: Publication Award Nominees mominated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (CDC/ATSDR) for the 2013 Charles C. Shepard Science Awards (p. 7-32), Lifetime Scientific Achievement Award winners (p. 33-38), previous winners (p. 39-58), previous keynote speakers (p. 55-58).The ceremony consisted of: Introductory remarks / Arlene Greenspan -- Introduction of keynote speaker / Thomas R. Frieden -- Unwarranted Variation of Health Care/ John E. Wennberg -- Presentation of the 2013 Charles C. Shepard Science Awards / Tanja Popovic -- Closing / Tanja Popovic.2013686