Use and Improvement of Remote Sensing and Geospatial Technologies in Support of Crop Area and Yield Estimations in the West African Sahel

In arid and semi-arid West Africa, agricultural production and regional food security depend largely on small-scale subsistence farming and rainfed crops, both of which are vulnerable to climate variability and drought. Efforts made to improve crop monitoring and our ability to estimate crop production (areas planted and yield estimations by crop type) in the major agricultural zones of the region are critical paths for minimizing climate risks and to support food security planning. The main objective of this dissertation research was to contribute to these efforts using remote sensing technologies. In this regard, the first analysis documented the low reliability of existing land cover products for cropland area estimation (Chapter 2). Then two satellite remote sensing-based datasets were developed that 1) accurately map cropland areas in the five countries of Sahelian West Africa (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger; Chapter 3), and 2) focus on the country of Mali to identify the location and prevalence of the major subsistence crops (millet, sorghum, maize and non-irrigated rice; Chapter 4). The regional cropland area product is distributed as the West African Sahel Cropland area at 30 m (WASC30). The development of the new dataset involved high density training data (380,000 samples) developed by USGS in collaboration with CILSS for training about 200 locally optimized random forest (RF) classifiers using Landsat 8 surface reflectances and vegetation indices and the Google Earth Engine platform. WASC30 greatly improves earlier estimates through inclusion of cropland information for both rainfed and irrigated areas mapped with a class-specific accuracy of 79% across the West Africa Sahel. Used as a mask in crop monitoring systems, the new cropland area data could bring critical insights by reducing uncertainties in xv identification of croplands as crop growth condition metrics are extracted. WASC30 allowed us to derive detailed statistics on cultivated areas in the Sahel, at country and agroclimatic scales. Intensive agricultural zones were highlighted as well. The second dataset, mapping crop types for the country of Mali, is meant to separate signals of different crop types for improved crop yield estimation. The crop type map was used to derive detailed agricultural statistics (e.g. acreage by crop types, spatial distribution) at finer administrative scales than has previously been possible. The crop fraction information by crop type extracted from the map, gives additional details on farmers preferences by regions, and the natural adaptability of different crop types. The final analysis of this dissertation explores the use of ensemble machine learning techniques to predict maize yield in Mali (Chapter 5). Climate data (precipitation and temperature), and vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI, the Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI, and the Normalized Difference Water Index, NDWI) are used as predictors, while actual yields collected in 2017 by the Malian Ministry of Agriculture are the reference data. Random forest presented better predictive performance as compared to boosted regression trees (BRT). Results showed that climate variables have more predictive power for maize yield compared to vegetation indices. Among vegetation indices, the NDWI appeared to be the most influential predictor, maybe because of water requirement of maize and the sensitivity of this index to water in semi-arid regions. Tested with two different independent datasets, one constituted by 20% of the reference information, and another including observed yields for year 2018 (a one-year-left analysis), maize yield predictions were promising for year 2017 (RMSE = 362 kg/ha), but showed higher error for 2018 (RMSE = 707 kg/ha). That is, the fitted model may not capture accurately year to year variabilities in predicted maize yield. In this analysis, predictions were limited to field samples (~600 fields) across the country of Mali. It would be valuable in the future to predict maize yield for each pixel of the new developed crop type map. That will lead to a detailed spatial analysis of maize yield, allowing identification of low yielding regions for targeted interventions which could improve food security. Keywords: Agricultural identification of croplands as crop growth condition metrics are extracted. WASC30 allowed us to derive detailed statistics on cultivated areas in the Sahel, at country and agroclimatic scales. Intensive agricultural zones were highlighted as well. The second dataset, mapping crop types for the country of Mali, is meant to separate signals of different crop types for improved crop yield estimation. The crop type map was used to derive detailed agricultural statistics (e.g. acreage by crop types, spatial distribution) at finer administrative scales than has previously been possible. The crop fraction information by crop type extracted from the map, gives additional details on farmers preferences by regions, and the natural adaptability of different crop types. The final analysis of this dissertation explores the use of ensemble machine learning techniques to predict maize yield in Mali (Chapter 5). Climate data (precipitation and temperature), and vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI, the Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI, and the Normalized Difference Water Index, NDWI) are used as predictors, while actual yields collected in 2017 by the Malian Ministry of Agriculture are the reference data. Random forest presented better predictive performance as compared to boosted regression trees (BRT). Results showed that climate variables have more predictive power for maize yield compared to vegetation indices. Among vegetation indices, the NDWI appeared to be the most influential predictor, maybe because of water requirement of maize and the sensitivity of this index to water in semi-arid regions. Tested with two different independent datasets, one constituted by 20% of the reference information, and another including observed yields for year 2018 (a one-year-left analysis), maize yield predictions were promising for year 2017 (RMSE = 362 kg/ha), but showed higher error for 2018 (RMSE = 707 kg/ha). That is, the fitted model may not capture accurately year to year variabilities in predicted maize yield. In this analysis, predictions were limited to field samples (~600 fields) across the country of Mali. It would be valuable in the future to predict maize yield for each pixel of the new developed crop type map. That will lead to a detailed spatial analysis of maize yield, allowing identification of low yielding regions for targeted interventions which could improve food security

Remote Sensing Based Yield Estimation of Rice (Oryza Sativa L.) Using Gradient Boosted Regression in India

Accurate and spatially explicit yield information is required to ensure farmers’ income and food security at local and national levels. Current approaches based on crop cutting experiments are expensive and usually too late for timely income stabilization measures like crop insurances. We, therefore, utilized a Gradient Boosted Regression (GBR), a machine learning technique, to estimate rice yields at ~500 m spatial resolution for rice-producing areas in India with potential application for near real-time estimates. We used resampled intermediate resolution (~5 km) images of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and observed yields at the district level in India for calibrating GBR models. These GBRs were then used to downscale district yields to 500 m resolution. Downscaled yields were re-aggregated for validation against out-of-sample district yields not used for model training and an additional independent data set of block-level (below district-level) yields. Our downscaled and re-aggregated yields agree well with reported district-level observations from 2003 to 2015 (r = 0.85 & MAE = 0.15 t/ha). The model performance improved further when estimating separate models for different rice cropping densities (up to r = 0.93). An additional out-of-sample validation for the years 2016 and 2017, proved successful with r = 0.84 and r = 0.77, respectively. Simulated yield accuracy was higher in water-limited, rainfed agricultural systems. We conclude that this downscaling approach of rice yield estimation using GBR is feasible across India and may complement current approaches for timely rice yield estimation required by insurance companies and government agencies

Farming and earth observation: sentinel-2 data to estimate within-field wheat grain yield

Wheat grain yield (GY) is a crop feature of central importance affecting agricultural, environmental, and socioeconomic sustainability worldwide. Hence, the estimation of within-field variability of GY is pivotal for the agricultural management, especially in the current global change context. In this sense, Earth Observation Systems (EOS) are key technologies that use satellite data to monitor crop yield, which can guide the application of precision farming. Yet, novel research is required to improve the multiplatform integration of data, including data processing, and the application of this discipline in agricultural management. This article provides a novel methodological analysis and assessment of its applications in precision farming. It presents an integration of wheat GY, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), combine harvester data, and EOS Sentinel-2 multispectral bands. Moreover, it compares several indices and machine learning (ML) approaches to map within-field wheat GY. It also analyses the importance of multi-date remote sensing imagery and explores its potential applications in precision agriculture. The study was conducted in Spain, a major European wheat producer. Within-field GY data was obtained from a GPS combine harvester machine for 8 fields over three seasons (2017-2019) and consecutively processed to match Sentinel-2 10 m pixel size. Seven vegetation indices (NDVI, GNDVI, EVI, RVI, TGI, CVI and NGRDI) as well as the biophysical parameter LAI (leaf area index) retrieved with radiative transfer models (RTM) were calculated from Sentinel-2 bands. Sentinel-2 10 m resolution bands alone were also used as variables. Random forest, support vector machine and boosted regressions were used as modelling approaches, and multilinear regression was calculated as baseline. Different combinations of dates of measurement were tested to find the most suitable model feeding data. LAI retrieved from RTM had a slightly improved performance in estimating within-field GY in comparison with vegetation indices or Sentinel-2 bands alone. At validation, the use of multi-date Sentinel-2 data was found to be the most suitable in comparison with single date images. Thus, the model developed with random forest regression (e.g. R-2 = 0.89, and RSME = 0.74 t/ha when using LAI) outperformed support vector machine (R-2 = 0.84 and RSME = 0.92 t/ha), boosting regression (R-2 = 0.85 and RSME = 0.88 t/ha) and multilinear regression (R-2 = 0.69 and RSME = 1.29 t/ha). However, single date images at specific phenological stages (e.g. R-2 = 0.84, and RSME = 0.88 t/ha using random forest at stem elongation) also posed relatively high R-2 and low RMSE, with potential for precision farming management before harvest.A & nbsp;We acknowledge the support of the project PID2019-106650RB-C21 from the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion, Spain. J.S. is a recipient of a FPI doctoral fellowship from the same institution (grant: PRE2020-091907) . J.L.A. acknowledges support from the Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA) , Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain) . S. C.K. is supported by the Ramon y Cajal RYC-2019-027818-I research fellowship from the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion, Spain. We acknowledge the support of Cerealto Siro Group, together with Cristina de Diego and Javier Velasco, technical staff from the company, by providing the wheat yield data. This research was also supported by the COST Action CA17134 SENSECO (Optical synergies for spatiotemporal sensing of scalable ecophysiological traits) funded by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology, www.cost.eu)

Densification of spatially-sparse legacy soil data at a national scale: a digital mapping approach

Digital soil mapping (DSM) is a viable approach to providing spatial soil information but its adoption at the national scale, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, is limited by low spread of data. Therefore, the focus of this thesis is on optimizing DSM techniques for densification of sparse legacy soil data using Nigeria as a case study. First, the robustness of Random Forest model (RFM) was tested in predicting soil particle-size fractions as a compositional data using additive log-ratio technique. Results indicated good prediction accuracy with RFM while soils are largely coarse-textured especially in the northern region. Second, soil organic carbon (SOC) and bulk density (BD) were predicted from which SOC density and stock were calculated. These were overlaid with land use/land cover (LULC), agro-ecological zone (AEZ) and soil maps to quantify the carbon sequestration of soils and their variation across different AEZs. Results showed that 6.5 Pg C with an average of 71.60 Mg C ha–1 abound in the top 1 m soil depth. Furthermore, to improve the performance of BD and effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) pedotransfer functions (PTFs), the inclusion of environmental data was explored using multiple linear regression (MLR) and RFM. Results showed an increase in performance of PTFs with the use of soil and environmental data. Finally, the application of Choquet fuzzy integral (CI) technique in irrigation suitability assessment was assessed. This was achieved through multi-criteria analysis of soil, climatic, landscape and socio-economic indices. Results showed that CI is a better aggregation operator compared to weighted mean technique. A total of 3.34 x 106 ha is suitable for surface irrigation in Nigeria while major limitations are due to topographic and soil attributes. Research findings will provide quantitative basis for framing appropriate policies on sustainable food production and environmental management, especially in resource-poor countries of the world

Climate change and agriculture in Burkina Faso

The impacts of climate change (CC) are expected to be higher in developing countries (e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa). However, these impacts will depend on agriculture development and resilience. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted relationships between CC and agriculture in Burkina Faso (BF). A search performed in March 2020 on the Web of Science yielded 1,820 documents and 217 of them were included in the systematic review. The paper provides an overview on both bibliometrics (e.g. journals, authors, institutions) and topics addressed in the literature viz. agriculture subsectors, climate trends in BF, agriculture and CC mitigation (e.g. agriculture-related emissions, soil carbon sequestration), impacts of CC on agriculture (e.g. natural resources, crop suitability, yields, food security) as well as adaptation strategies. BF is experiencing CC as evidenced by warming and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The literature focuses on crops, while animal husbandry and, especially, fisheries are often overlooked. Moreover, most of the documents deal with CC adaptation by the Burkinabe farmers, pastoralists and rural populations. Analysed adaptation options include conservation agriculture and climate-smart agriculture, irrigation, crop diversification, intensification, livelihoods diversification and migration. However, the focus is mainly on agricultural and individual responses, while livelihoods strategies such as diversification and migration are less frequently addressed. Further research is needed on the dual relation between agriculture and CC to contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Research results are crucial to inform policies aimed at CC mitigation and/or adaptation in rural BF

Book of abstracts, 4th World Congress on Agroforestry

International audienc

Risk-Informed Sustainable Development in the Rural Tropics

Many people live in rural areas in tropical regions. Rural development is not merely a contribution to the growth of individual countries. It can be a way to reduce poverty and to increase access to water, health care, and education. Sustainable rural development can also help stop deforestation and reduce live-stock, which generate most of the greenhouse gas emissions. However, eorts to achieve a sustainable rural development are often thwarted by oods, drought, heat waves, and hurricanes, which local communities are not very prepared to tackle. Agricultural practices and local planning are still not very risk-informed. These deciencies are particularly acute in tropical regions, where many Least Developed Countries are located and where there is, however, great potential for rural development. This Special Issue contains 22 studies on best practices for risk awareness; on local risk reduction; on several cases of soil depletion, water pollution, and sustainable access to safe water; and on agronomy, earth sciences, ecology, economy, environmental engineering, geomatics, materials science, and spatial and regional planning in 12 tropical countries