Analyzing Periurban Fringe with Rough Set

The distinction among urban, periurban and rural areas represents a classical example of uncertainty in land classification. Satellite images, geostatistical analysis and all kinds of spatial data are very useful in urban sprawl studies, but it is important to define precise rules in combining great amounts of data to build complex knowledge about territory. Rough Set theory may be a useful method to employ in this field. It represents a different mathematical approach to uncertainty by capturing the indiscernibility. Two different phenomena can be indiscernible in some contexts and classified in the same way when combining available information about them. This approach has been applied in a case of study, comparing the results achieved with both Map Algebra technique and Spatial Rough Set. The study case area, Potenza Province, is particularly suitable for the application of this theory, because it includes 100 municipalities with different number of inhabitants and morphologic features

Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis for New FUA Inner Strategic Asset: A Case Study of the Metropolitan City of Milan, Italy

Functional urban areas represent integrated urban contexts whose territories are economically interconnected. They, therefore, include a central city and all the municipalities that make up the commuting area for work reasons. The economic energies and settlement transformations that characterize these territories have been consolidated over time. The current geographic conformation, as defined today, does not provide information on each municipality's rank (role) in the overall functioning. In this perspective, the work presented examines the demographic and urban dynamics that have affected the FUA of Milan in the last 60 years and then evaluates the presence of possible homogeneous geographic clusters (hot and cold spots) through spatial correlation techniques. Statistic validation was performed through the ANOVA and subsequent posthoc analysis (Tukey-Kramer method). Results show a new configurational asset within the FUA of Milan, which could provide a new key to interpreting the territory, aimed at identifying homogeneous areas to adopt new and more effective forms of strategic planning

Cityscape, poverty and crime: a quantitative assessment using VHR imagery

[EN] The first part of this work reviews the potential applications of satellite remote sensing to regional science research in urban settings. The availability of satellite remote sensing data has increased significantly in the last two decades. The increasing spatial resolution of commercial satellite imagery has influenced the emergence of new research and applications of regional science in urban settlements because it is now possible to identify individual objects of the urban fabric. The most common applications found in the literature are the detection of urban deprivation hot spots, quality of life index assessment, urban growth analysis, house value estimation, urban population estimation, urban social vulnerability assessment, and the variability of intra-urban crime rates. The satellite remote sensing imagery used in these applications has medium, high or very high spatial resolution (Landsat MSS, Landsat TM and ETM+, SPOT, ASTER, IRS, Ikonos and QuickBird). Consistent relationships between socio-economic variables derived from censuses and field surveys and proxy variables of vegetation coverage measured from satellite remote sensing data have been found in several cities in the US. Different approaches and techniques have been applied successfully around the world, but local research is always needed to account for the unique elements of each place. Spectral mixture analysis, object-oriented classifications and image texture measures are some of the techniques of image processing that have been implemented with good results. This work contributes empirical evidence about the usefulness of remote sensing imagery to quantify the degree of poverty at the intra-urban scale. This concept is based on two premises: first, that the physical appearance of an urban settlement is a reflection of the society; and second, that the people who reside in urban areas with similar physical housing conditions have similar social and demo- graphic characteristics. We evaluate the potential of the image-derived urban fabric descriptors to explain a measure of poverty known as the Slum Index. We found that these variables explain up to 59% of the variability in the Slum Index. Similar approaches could be used to lower the cost of socioeconomic surveys by developing an econometric model from a sample and applying that model to the rest of the city and to perform intercensal or intersurvey estimates of intra-urban Slum Index maps. The last part of this work analyzes the relation between the urban layout and crime. The link between place and crime is at the base of social ecology theories of crime that focus in the relationship of the characteristics of geographical areas and crime rates. The broken windows theory states that visible cues of physical and social disorder in a neighborhood can lead to an increase in more serious crime. Based on the premise that a settlement's appearance is a reflection of the society, we ask whether a neighbor- hood's design has a quantifiable imprint when seen from space using urban fabric descriptors computed from VHR imagery. The percentage of impervious surfaces other than clay roofs, the fraction of clay roofs to impervious surfaces, two structure descriptors related to the homogeneity of the urban layout, and the uniformity texture descriptor were all statistically significant. Areas with higher homicide rates tended to have higher local variation and less general homogeneity; that is, the urban layouts were more crowded and cluttered, with small dwellings with different roofing materials located in close proximity to one another, and these regions often lacked other homogeneous surfaces such as open green spaces, wide roads, or large facilities. These results seem to be in agreement with the broken windows theory and CPTED in the sense that more heterogeneous and disordered urban layouts are associated with higher homicide rates.[ES] La primera parte aporta una revisión de las aplicaciones de la teledetección satelital en la investigación de ciencia regional en entornos urbanos. La disponibilidad de imágenes satelitales se ha incrementado significativamente en las dos últimas décadas, al tiempo que la resolución espacial ha venido aumentando, lo que ha influenciado el surgimiento de investigaciones y aplicaciones de ciencia regional en zonas urbanas. Las aplicaciones más comunes son la detección de hot spots de pobreza urbana, la evaluación de índices de calidad de vida, el análisis del crecimiento urbano, la estimación de valores de vivienda, la estimación de población urbana, la evaluación de la vulnerabilidad social y las variaciones intra-urbanas en tasas de crimen. Las imágenes satelitales usadas tienen resolución espacial media, alta o muy alta (Landsat MSS, Landsat TM y ETM+, SPOT, ASTER, IRS, Ikonos y Quickbird). Se han encontrado relaciones consistentes entre variables socio-económicas obtenidas de censos y encuestas y variables de la cobertura de vegetación en varias ciudades de Estados Unidos. Algunas de las técnicas que se han implementado y obtenido buenos resultados son el análisis de mezcla espectral, las clasificaciones orientadas a objetos y las medidas de textura de la imagen. Se aporta evidencia empírica acerca de la utilidad de las imágenes satelitales para cuantificar el grado de pobreza a escala intra-urbana. Se basa en dos premisas: primero, que la apariencia física de un asentamiento urbano es un reflejo de la sociedad que lo habita; y segundo, que la población de áreas urbanas con condiciones físicas de vivienda parecidas tiene características sociales y demográficas similares. Evaluamos el potencial de los descriptores del tejido urbano extraídos de la imagen para explicar una medida de pobreza conocida como el índice Slum. Encontramos que esas variables explican hasta un 59% de la variabilidad en el índice Slum. Aproximaciones similares a esta podrían usarse para disminuir el costo de encuestas socioeconómicas por medio del desarrollo de un modelo econométrico usando una muestra y luego aplicando el modelo al resto de la ciudad, y para elaborar estimaciones inter-censales o inter-encuestas de mapas intra-urbanos del índice Slum. La última parte analiza la relación entre el trazado urbano y crimen. El enlace entre el lugar y el crimen está en la base de las teorías socio-ecológicas de crimen que se enfocan en la relación de las características de las áreas geográficas y las tasas de crimen. La teoría de las ventanas rotas afirma que las evidencias visibles de desorden físico y social en un barrio pueden llevar al incremento de crímenes más serios. Con base en la premisa de que la apariencia de un asentamiento es un reflejo de la sociedad, nos preguntamos si el diseño del barrio tiene un impacto cuantificable cuando se observa desde el espacio usando descriptores del tejido urbano obtenidos de imágenes de muy alta resolución. El porcentaje de superficies impermeables diferentes a los techos de arcilla, la fracción de techos de arcilla sobre las superficies impermeables, dos variables de estructura relacionadas con la homogeneidad del trazado urbano y la variable de textura uniformidad resultaron estadísticamente significativas. Las áreas con tasas de homicidio más altas tienden a tener mayor variación local y menor homogeneidad general; esto es, los trazados urbanos son más desordenados y hacinados, con pequeñas viviendas que tienen materiales diferentes en sus techos localizadas muy cerca unas de otras, y estas áreas carecen a menudo de otras superficies homogéneas tales como espacios verdes abiertos, vías amplias y grandes construcciones industriales o institucionales. Estos resultados parecen estar en acuerdo con la teoría de las ventanas rotas y CPTED en el sentido de que los trazados urbanos más desordenados y heterogéneos están asociados con tasas de homicid[CA] La primera part aporta una revisió de les potencials aplicacions de la teledetecció espacial a la investigació en ciència regional en entorns urbans. La disponibilitat de dades de percepció remota des de satèl·lits s'ha incrementat significativament a les dues últimes dècades. La resolució espacial de les imatges de satèl·lit comercials també han anat augmentant i això, ha influït en l'aparició de investigacions i aplicacions a la ciència regional en assentaments urbans. Les aplicacions més comunes trobades a la literatura són la detecció de punts calents de pobresa urbana, l'avaluació dels índex de qualitat de vida, les anàlisis de creixement urbà, l'avaluació de la vulnerabilitat social i les variacions intraurbanes de les taxes de crims. Les imatges de satèl·lit emprades tenen resolució espacial mitjana, alta o molt alta (Landsat MSS, Landsat TM i ETM+, SPOT, ASTER, IRS, Ikonos y Quickbird). S'han torbat relacions consistents entre variables socioeconòmiques obtingudes de censos i enquestes i variables de la cobertura de vegetació en varies ciutats del Estats Units. Algunes de les tècniques que s'han implementat i han donat bons resultats són l'anàlisi de mescla espectral, les classificacions orientades a objecte i les mesures de textura de les imatges. Es aporta evidència empírica sobre la utilitat de les imatges de satèl·lit per quantificar el grau de pobresa a escala intraurbana. Es bassa en dues premisses: primer, que l'aparença física d'un assentament urbà n'és un reflex de la societat que l'habita; i segon, que les persones que resideixen en àrees urbanes amb condicions físiques de vivenda paregudes tenen també característiques socials i demogràfiques similars. Avaluem el potencial dels descriptors del teixit urbà extrets de la imatge per explicar una mesura de pobresa coneguda com index Slum. Trobem que aquestes variables expliquen fins un 59% de la variabilitat de l'índex Slum. Aproximacions semblants a aquesta es podrien emprar per a disminuir el cost de les enquestes socioeconòmiques mitjançant el desenvolupament d'un model economètric utilitzant una mostra i després aplicant el model a la resta de la ciutat, i per elaborar estimacions inter-censals o inter-enquestes de mapes intraurbans de l'índex Slum. La darrera part analitza la relació entre el traçat urbà i el crim. L'enllaç entre el lloc i el crim està a la base de les teories socio-ecològiques del crim que es centren en la relació de les característiques de les àrees geogràfiques i les taxes de crims. La teoria de les finestres trencades afirma que les evidències visibles de desordre físic i social d'un barri pot portar a l'augment de crims més greus. Basant-se en la premissa de que l'aparença d'un assentament n'és el reflex de la societat, ens hi preguntem si el disseny del barri té un impacte quantificable quan s'observa des de el espai, utilitzant descriptors del teixit urbà obtinguts de imatges de molt alta resolució. Han resultat estadísticament significatius el percentatge de superfícies impermeables diferents a les teulades de argila, la fracció de teulades d'argila sobre les superfícies impermeables, dues variables d'estructura relacionades amb la homogeneïtat del traçat urbà i la variable de textura de uniformitat. Les àrees amb taxes d'homicidi més altes tendeixen a presentar una major variació local i una menor homogeneïtat general; és a dir, el traçats urbans són més desordenats i amuntonats, amb petites vivendes que tenen materials diferents a les seues teulades localitzades molt prop unes d'altres, i aquestes àrees manquen sovint d'altres superfícies homogènies, com ara espais verds oberts, vies amplies i grans construccions industrials o institucionals. Aquests resultats pareixen estar-hi d'acord amb la teoria de les finestres trencades i CPTED en el sentit de que els traçats urbans més desordenats i heterogenis estan associats amb taxes d'homicides mPatiño Quinchía, JE. (2015). Cityscape, poverty and crime: a quantitative assessment using VHR imagery [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/59453TESI

Relationship between densification and NDVI loss: A study using the Google Earth Engine at local scale

Latin American cities are amongst those with the highest rates of urbanization in the world. This process has involved their territorial expansion as well as the densification of some of its neighborhoods, in mainly central areas. This is the case of the city of Santiago del Estero (Argentina) that increased its population by 33% between 1991 and 2010 with the consequent transformations of the local space. In this context, this study analyzes the evolution of vegetated areas and densification of the central area of the city using satellite data. We analyzed two indices: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and Urban Index (UI) time-series data, for the 1992–2011 year period, using the Google Earth Engine for processing Landsat 5 TM images. We found that the NDVI showed a decreasing trend in the timelapse under consideration, while the UI performance registered the opposite trend. The mean NDVI decreased from 0.161 (1992) to 0.103 (2011) while the UI mean increased from 0.003 to 0.036 in the same timelapse. Further, the NDVI has a strong negative correlation with UI (R-squared = -0.862). The results are consistent with the census information that recorded an important demographic and housing growth for the entire city in this period.Fil: Celemin, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tandil. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales; ArgentinaFil: Arias, Maria Eugenia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tandil. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales; Argentin

Urban sprawl in the state of Missouri : current trends, driving forces, and predicted growth on Missouri's natural landscape

Title from PDF of title page (University of Missouri--Columbia, viewed on March 5, 2013).The entire thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file; a non-technical public abstract appears in the public.pdf file.Dissertation advisor: Dr. Hong S. HeIncludes bibliographical references.Vita.Ph.D. University of Missouri--Columbia 2012."December 2012"Missouri reflects a full range of sprawl characteristics that include large metropolitan centers, which led growth in 1980s, and smaller metropolitan and rural areas, which led growth in 1990s. In order to study the historical patterns of sprawl, there is a need to quantitatively and geographically depict the extent and density of impervious surface for three time periods of 1980, 1990, and 2000 for the entire state of Missouri. Mapped impervious surface is the best candidate of ancillary data for dasymetric mapping of population in several comparison studies. The current research examines the performances of dasymetric mapping of population with imperviousness as ancillary data and regression analysis of population using imperviousness as a predictor Results from this work can be aggregated to any geographical unit (hydrologic boundaries, administrative boundaries, etc.). A pilot future urban growth study for the two decades of 1980s and 1990s was done in Missouri. The historical urban growth of the two decades were analyzed then coupled with various predictor variables to investigate the influence of each predictor variables towards the process of urban growth. The knowledge learned from the process is then used to build an urban growth simulation model that is GIS-based with open framework for ease of management and improvement. Pixel level urban growth was simulated for year 2010, 2020 and 2030. This model framework is developed with the ultimate goal of simulating urban growth for the entire state of Missouri.Includes bibliographical reference

SPATIAL ANALYSES AND REMOTE SENSING FOR LAND COVER CHANGE DYNAMICS: ASSESSING IN A SPATIAL PLANNING

ABSTRACT (EN) Spatial planning is a crucial discipline for the identification and implementation of sustainable development strategies that take into account the environmental impacts on the soil. In recent years, the significant development of technology, like remote sensing and GIS software, has significantly increased the understanding of environmental components, highlighting their peculiarities and criticalities. Geographically referenced information on environmental and socio-economic components represents a fundamental database for identifying and monitoring vulnerable areas, also distinguishing different levels of vulnerability. This is even more relevant considering the increasingly significant impact of land transformation processes, consisting of rapid and frequent changes in land use patterns. In order to achieve some of the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda, the role of environmental planning is crucial in addressing spatial problems, such as agricultural land abandonment and land take, which cause negative impacts on ecosystems. Remote sensing, and in general all Earth Observation techniques, play a key role in achieving SDG 11.3 and 15.3 of Agenda 2030. Through a series of applications and investigations in different areas of Basilicata, it has been demonstrated how the extensive use of remote sensing and spatial analysis in a GIS environment provide a substantial contribution to the results of the SDGs, enabling an informed decisionmaking process and enabling monitoring of the results expected, ensuring data reliability and directly contributing to the calculation of SDG objectives and indicators by facilitating local administrations approaches to work in different development and sustainability sectors. In this thesis have been analyse the dynamics of land transformation in terms of land take and soil erosion in sample areas of the Basilicata Region, which represents an interesting case example for the study of land use land cover change (LULCC). The socio-demographic evolutionary trends and the study of marginality and territorial fragility are fundamental aspects in the context of territorial planning, since they are important drivers of the LULCC and territorial transformation processes. In fact, in Basilicata, settlement dynamics over the years have occurred in an uncontrolled and unregulated manner, leading to a constant consumption of land not accompanied by adequate demographic and economic growth. To better understand the evolution and dynamics of the LULCCs and provide useful tools for formulating territorial planning policies and strategies aimed at a sustainable use of the territory, the socio-economic aspects of the Region were investigated. A first phase involved the creation of a database and the study and identification of essential services in the area as a fundamental parameter against which to evaluate the quality of life in a specific area. The supply of essential services can be understood as an assessment of the lack of minimum requirements with reference to the urban functions exercised by each territorial unit. From a territorial point of view, the level of peripherality of the territories with respect to the network of urban centres profoundly influences the quality of life of citizens and the level of social inclusion. In these, the presence of essential services can act as an attractor capable of generating discrete catchment areas. The purpose of this first part of the work was above all to create a dataset of data useful for the calculation of various socio-economic indicators, in order to frame the demographic evolution and the evolution of the stock of public and private services. The first methodological approach was to reconstruct the offer of essential services through the use of open data in a GIS environment and subsequently estimate the peripherality of each municipality by estimating the accessibility to essential services. The study envisaged the use of territorial analysis techniques aimed at describing the distribution of essential services on the regional territory. It is essential to understand the role of demographic dynamics as a driver of urban land use change such as, for example, the increase in demand for artificial surfaces that occurs locally. Social and economic analyses are important in the spatial planning process. Comparison of socio-economic analyses with land use and land cover change can highlight the need to modify existing policies or implement new ones. A particular land use can degrade and thereby destroy other land resources. If the economic analysis shows that the use is beneficial from the point of view of the land user, it is likely to continue, regardless of whether the process is environmentally friendly. It is important to understand and investigate which drivers have been and will be in the future the most decisive in these dynamics that intrinsically contribute to land take, agricultural abandonment and the consequent processes of land degradation and to define policies or thresholds to mitigate and monitor the effects of these processes. Subsequently, the issues of land take and abandonment of agricultural land were analysed by applying models and techniques of remote sensing, GIS and territorial analysis for the identification and monitoring of abandoned agricultural areas and sealed areas. The classic remote sensing methods have also been integrated by some geostatistical analyses which have provided more information on the investigated phenomenon. The aim was the creation of a quick methodology that would allow to describe the monitoring and analysis activities of the development trends of soil consumption and the monitoring and identification of degraded areas. The first methodology proposed allowed the automatic and rapid detection of detailed LULCC and Land Take maps with an overall accuracy of more than 90%, reducing costs and processing times. The identification of abandoned agricultural areas in degradation is among the most complicated LULCC and Land Degradation processes to identify and monitor as it is driven by a multiplicity of anthropic and natural factors. The model used to estimate soil erosion as a degradation phenomenon is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). To identify potentially degraded areas, two factors of the RUSLE have been correlated: Factor C which describes the vegetation cover of the soil and Factor A which represents the amount of potential soil erosion. Through statistical correlation analysis with the RUSLE factors, on the basis of the deviations from the average RUSLE values and mapping of the areas of vegetation degradation, relating to arable land, through statistical correlation with the vegetation factor C, the areas were identified and mapped that are susceptible to soil degradation. The results obtained allowed the creation of a database and a map of the degraded areas to be paid attention to

Monitoring urban sustainability based on an integrated indicator model using geospatial technique and multiple data sources: a case study in the city of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

A comprehensive understanding of urban development is critical for moving towards the goal of sustainability. Despite a collection of urban sustainability indicator (USI) conceptual frameworks proposed and explored in practical urban sustainability assessment, establishing an integrated, well-quantified, spatially characterized USI model is still a challenging task. Therefore, based on a manuscript-style format this thesis develops a subjectively weighted integrated USI model and then applies it to the city of Saskatoon, SK, Canada, as a case study, based on quantifying a hierarchical index system. In addition, urban environmental sustainability is spatiotemporally investigated for an improved understanding of Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Results show that the proposed integrated USI model improved urban sustainability measurement by overcoming the shortages in existing USI models. Geospatial statistics demonstrated disparity in urban sustainability across residential neighbourhoods for Saskatoon in 2006 based on the significant clusters and outliers. It also found that population increases can possibly improve intellectual and economic well-being and promote urbanization, but may cause environmental degradation and lead to a decline in overall urban sustainability. This research also demonstrates that satellite imagery can be used to study environmental sustainability at different spatiotemporal scales. This research reveals that both urban water and green spaces had significant cooling effects on the surrounding urban LST within specific ranges. Urban surface temperature can be estimated based on a multiple linear regression model with sustainable traveling mode index and land use information as input variables. The overall significance of this research has three folds. First, it lays a preliminary theoretical foundation for a comprehensive understanding of urban sustainability based on a well-quantified integrated USI model. Second, it is relatively original with respect to improving urban sustainability measurements through the incorporation of subjective information into objective data. Third, this research has explored spatiotemporal analysis to detect urban sustainability patterns based on compiling multiple data sources using geospatial techniques. The proposed USI model is highly suitable for comparison analysis at different spatial scales as well as continuously tracking the dynamic changes. Therefore, this research can be a good practice of applying the spatiotemporal philosophy to urban geographical problems

Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis for Land-Take Assessment in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)

Land use is one of the drivers of land-cover change (LCC) and represents the conversion of natural to artificial land cover. This work aims to describe the land-take-monitoring activities and analyze the development trend in test areas of the Basilicata region. Remote sensing is the primary technique for extracting land-use/land-cover (LULC) data. In this study, a new methodology of classification of Landsat data (TM-OLI) is proposed to detect land-cover information automatically and identify land take to perform a multi-temporal analysis. Moreover, within the defined model, it is crucial to use the territorial information layers of geotopographic database (GTDB) for the detailed definition of the land take. All stages of the classification process were developed using the supervised classification algorithm support vector machine (SVM) change-detection analysis, thus integrating the geographic information system (GIS) remote sensing data and adopting free and open-source software and data. The application of the proposed method allowed us to quickly extract detailed land-take maps with an overall accuracy greater than 90%, reducing the cost and processing time

Case study greater Cairo Region Egypt

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively

Current Assessment and Future Prediction of Forest Cover Change in Cumberland and Morgan Counties, Tennessee: A Modeling Technique

Determining the relationship between human disturbance of the environment and natural forest change is critical for sound natural resource planning. Improved land cover modeling techniques that incorporate geographic information systems and statistical models are needed to assist in this analysis. Continued forest fragmentation due to increasing population and urbanization has created a growing interest in forest protection for the Cumberland Plateau of Tennessee. Specifically, Cumberland and Morgan Counties have seen unprecedented population growth over the last two decades, resulting in fragmentation of forestland. This study developed a model to determine the probability of exurbia development and its resulting forest fragmentation. Geographic data used in the research included satellite imagery from 1992 and 2000, U.S. Census population and demographic estimates, and road and water coverages for the two counties. The first objective of this study was to develop an accurate and efficient procedure for the development of a land cover map for use in a forest change detection system for Cumberland and Morgan Counties, Tennessee. A unique method was developed to generate this procedure by combining post-classification and image differencing. The second objective of the study was to determine the relationship between urbanization and forest loss in Cumberland and Morgan Counties, Tennessee, and to predict current and future land cover patterns. Logistic regression analysis suggested that demographic variables such as education and population along with spatial factors such as slope, distance to water, distance to interstate junctions, and gravity index factors of nearby urban retail centers, significantly influenced the transition of forest to urban cover. Of these parameters, a high gravity index, a suburban designation, and unsloped terrain had the greatest impact on forest to urban conversion. In addition, spatial factors such as parcel distance to water, and parcel distance to interstate junctions significantly influenced the probability of development. Finally, using population density predictions, the model identified the probability that forest land would be urbanized by 2010