Uncovering the spatial structure of mobility networks

The extraction of a clear and simple footprint of the structure of large, weighted and directed networks is a general problem that has many applications. An important example is given by origin-destination matrices which contain the complete information on commuting flows, but are difficult to analyze and compare. We propose here a versatile method which extracts a coarse-grained signature of mobility networks, under the form of a $2\times 2$ matrix that separates the flows into four categories. We apply this method to origin-destination matrices extracted from mobile phone data recorded in thirty-one Spanish cities. We show that these cities essentially differ by their proportion of two types of flows: integrated (between residential and employment hotspots) and random flows, whose importance increases with city size. Finally the method allows to determine categories of networks, and in the mobility case to classify cities according to their commuting structure.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures +Supplementary informatio

Sequences of purchases in credit card data reveal life styles in urban populations

Zipf-like distributions characterize a wide set of phenomena in physics, biology, economics and social sciences. In human activities, Zipf-laws describe for example the frequency of words appearance in a text or the purchases types in shopping patterns. In the latter, the uneven distribution of transaction types is bound with the temporal sequences of purchases of individual choices. In this work, we define a framework using a text compression technique on the sequences of credit card purchases to detect ubiquitous patterns of collective behavior. Clustering the consumers by their similarity in purchases sequences, we detect five consumer groups. Remarkably, post checking, individuals in each group are also similar in their age, total expenditure, gender, and the diversity of their social and mobility networks extracted by their mobile phone records. By properly deconstructing transaction data with Zipf-like distributions, this method uncovers sets of significant sequences that reveal insights on collective human behavior.Comment: 30 pages, 26 figure

Causal Inference in Disease Spread across a Heterogeneous Social System

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is challenging due to invisible causality between events and their time-evolving intensity. We infer causal relationships between infections and quantify the reflexivity of a meta-population, the level of feedback on event occurrences by its internal dynamics (likelihood of a regional outbreak triggered by previous cases). These are enabled by our new proposed model, the Latent Influence Point Process (LIPP) which models disease spread by incorporating macro-level internal dynamics of meta-populations based on human mobility. We analyse 15-year dengue cases in Queensland, Australia. From our causal inference, outbreaks are more likely driven by statewide global diffusion over time, leading to complex behavior of disease spread. In terms of reflexivity, precursory growth and symmetric decline in populous regions is attributed to slow but persistent feedback on preceding outbreaks via inter-group dynamics, while abrupt growth but sharp decline in peripheral areas is led by rapid but inconstant feedback via intra-group dynamics. Our proposed model reveals probabilistic causal relationships between discrete events based on intra- and inter-group dynamics and also covers direct and indirect diffusion processes (contact-based and vector-borne disease transmissions).Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1711.0635

Mapping road network communities for guiding disease surveillance and control strategies

Human mobility is increasing in its volume, speed and reach, leading to the movement and introduction of pathogens through infected travelers. An understanding of how areas are connected, the strength of these connections and how this translates into disease spread is valuable for planning surveillance and designing control and elimination strategies. While analyses have been undertaken to identify and map connectivity in global air, shipping and migration networks, such analyses have yet to be undertaken on the road networks that carry the vast majority of travellers in low and middle income settings. Here we present methods for identifying road connectivity communities, as well as mapping bridge areas between communities and key linkage routes. We apply these to Africa, and show how many highly-connected communities straddle national borders and when integrating malaria prevalence and population data as an example, the communities change, highlighting regions most strongly connected to areas of high burden. The approaches and results presented provide a flexible tool for supporting the design of disease surveillance and control strategies through mapping areas of high connectivity that form coherent units of intervention and key link routes between communities for targeting surveillance.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, research pape

A stochastic model of randomly accelerated walkers for human mobility

The recent availability of large databases allows to study macroscopic properties of many complex systems. However, inferring a model from a fit of empirical data without any knowledge of the dynamics might lead to erroneous interpretations [6]. We illustrate this in the case of human mobility [1-3] and foraging human patterns [4] where empirical long-tailed distributions of jump sizes have been associated to scale-free super-diffusive random walks called L\'evy flights [5]. Here, we introduce a new class of accelerated random walks where the velocity changes due to acceleration kicks at random times, which combined with a peaked distribution of travel times [7], displays a jump length distribution that could easily be misinterpreted as a truncated power law, but that is not governed by large fluctuations. This stochastic model allows us to explain empirical observations about the movements of 780,000 private vehicles in Italy, and more generally, to get a deeper quantitative understanding of human mobility.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures + Supplementary informatio

Identifying spatial invasion of pandemics on metapopulation networks via anatomizing arrival history

Spatial spread of infectious diseases among populations via the mobility of humans is highly stochastic and heterogeneous. Accurate forecast/mining of the spread process is often hard to be achieved by using statistical or mechanical models. Here we propose a new reverse problem, which aims to identify the stochastically spatial spread process itself from observable information regarding the arrival history of infectious cases in each subpopulation. We solved the problem by developing an efficient optimization algorithm based on dynamical programming, which comprises three procedures: i, anatomizing the whole spread process among all subpopulations into disjoint componential patches; ii, inferring the most probable invasion pathways underlying each patch via maximum likelihood estimation; iii, recovering the whole process by assembling the invasion pathways in each patch iteratively, without burdens in parameter calibrations and computer simulations. Based on the entropy theory, we introduced an identifiability measure to assess the difficulty level that an invasion pathway can be identified. Results on both artificial and empirical metapopulation networks show the robust performance in identifying actual invasion pathways driving pandemic spread.Comment: 14pages, 8 figures; Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic

Dynamical Patterns of Cattle Trade Movements

Despite their importance for the spread of zoonotic diseases, our understanding of the dynamical aspects characterizing the movements of farmed animal populations remains limited as these systems are traditionally studied as static objects and through simplified approximations. By leveraging on the network science approach, here we are able for the first time to fully analyze the longitudinal dataset of Italian cattle movements that reports the mobility of individual animals among farms on a daily basis. The complexity and inter-relations between topology, function and dynamical nature of the system are characterized at different spatial and time resolutions, in order to uncover patterns and vulnerabilities fundamental for the definition of targeted prevention and control measures for zoonotic diseases. Results show how the stationarity of statistical distributions coexists with a strong and non-trivial evolutionary dynamics at the node and link levels, on all timescales. Traditional static views of the displacement network hide important patterns of structural changes affecting nodes' centrality and farms' spreading potential, thus limiting the efficiency of interventions based on partial longitudinal information. By fully taking into account the longitudinal dimension, we propose a novel definition of dynamical motifs that is able to uncover the presence of a temporal arrow describing the evolution of the system and the causality patterns of its displacements, shedding light on mechanisms that may play a crucial role in the definition of preventive actions

Tracking Topology Dynamicity for Link Prediction in Intermittently Connected Wireless Networks

Through several studies, it has been highlighted that mobility patterns in mobile networks are driven by human behaviors. This effect has been particularly observed in intermittently connected networks like DTN (Delay Tolerant Networks). Given that common social intentions generate similar human behavior, it is relevant to exploit this knowledge in the network protocols design, e.g. to identify the closeness degree between two nodes. In this paper, we propose a temporal link prediction technique for DTN which quantifies the behavior similarity between each pair of nodes and makes use of it to predict future links. We attest that the tensor-based technique is effective for temporal link prediction applied to the intermittently connected networks. The validity of this method is proved when the prediction is made in a distributed way (i.e. with local information) and its performance is compared to well-known link prediction metrics proposed in the literature.Comment: Published in the proceedings of the 8th International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing Conference (IWCMC), Limassol, Cyprus, 201