ForChaos: Real Time Application DDoS detection using Forecasting and Chaos Theory in Smart Home IoT Network

Recently, D/DoS attacks have been launched by zombie IoT devices in smart home networks. They pose a great threat to to network systems with Application Layer DDoS attacks being especially hard to detect due to their stealth and seemingly legitimacy. In this paper, we propose we propose ForChaos, a lightweight detection algorithm for IoT devices, that is based on forecasting and chaos theory to identify flooding and DDoS attacks. For every time-series behaviour collected, a forecasting-technique prediction is generated, based on a number of features, and the error between the two values is calcualted. In order to assess the error of the forecasting from the actual value, the lyapunov exponent is used to detect potential malicious behaviour. In NS-3 we evaluate our detection algorithm through a series of experiments in Flooding and Slow-Rate DDoS attacks. The results are presented and discussed in detail and compared with related studies, demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness

Artificial neural network methods applied to forecasting river levels

The use of data-driven models may be an important alternative in several scientific fields, especially when the available data do not allow utilizing physical hydrologic models because these data must be measured in the basin. This paper explores important aspects of ANN use: initial training conditions, performance assessment, partitioning of the strong seasonal component in short-term samples and ranking results by a weighted score. Sequential partitioning of the sample was shown to be adequate for cases where the data series has a strong seasonal component and short time response. The nonexceeded error was associated with its frequency, giving a measure of performance that is easily understood and which does not depend on the long familiarity required by traditional methods to evaluate results. A weighted score calculated from several indices removed the difficulty of how to reconcile several statistical measures of performance. The need for repeated artificial neural network training using random starting conditions is established, and the ideal number of repetitions to ensure good training was investigated. A straightforward approach to visualization of forecasting errors is presented, and a pseudo-extrapolation region at the domain extremes is identified. The methods were explored using the Quaraí river basin, whose specific characteristics include a rapid response to precipitation events. It therefore provides a good test of artificial neural network methods, including the use of rainfall forecasts which, to be combined with existing data resources, required novel methodological approaches.A utilização de modelos orientados pelos dados (“data-driven models”) pode ser uma alternativa importante, principalmente quando não se dispõe de dados que permitam a utilização de modelos de base física, providos de parâmetros estabelecidos em função das propriedades medidas no sistema. O presente trabalho explora aspectos importantes na utilização das redes neurais artificiais: Condições iniciais aleatórias do treinamento, a avaliação do desempenho, o particionamento dos dados para amostras pequenas com forte sazonalidade e o ordenamento dos resultados por meio de um índice ponderador de diversas estatísticas. Uma técnica de particionamento seqüencial mostrou-se adequada para casos em que a série de dados apresenta forte sazonalidade e rápida resposta temporal. Os quantis das amostras dos erros, utilizados como índices de não-excedência associados à frequência de ocorrência fornecem uma estatística de desempenho de fácil percepção, cujo significado, em termos absolutos, permite interpretação direta, independentemente da experiência prévia, como acontece com os tradicionais métodos de avaliação de desempenho de resultados. Um índice ponderado calculado com base em vários índices de desempenho removeu a dificuldade de como conciliar a contradição entre diversas estatísticas de medição de desempenho. A necessidade de repetir o treinamento da rede neural artificial usando condições iniciais aleatórias é confirmada, e foi investigado o número ideal de repetições necessárias para garantir um bom treinamento. Uma visualização dos erros em função do nível d’água em ordem crescente é apresentada, e uma região de pseudo-extrapolação para os valores extremos é identificada. Os métodos foram explorados em uma aplicação para a bacia do rio Quaraí, que apresenta uma rápida resposta para eventos de precipitação. As dificuldades resultantes da rapidez das respostas, por um lado, limitam o desempenho que é possível alcançar, porém, por outro, constitui uma oportunidade para avaliar as metodologias aplicadas, incluindo o uso de previsões de precipitação, que, combinada com os dados de monitoramento existentes, acabam por requerer uma nova metodologia de abordagem

Identifying major drivers of daily streamflow from large-scale atmospheric circulation with machine learning

Previous studies linking large-scale atmospheric circulation and river flow with traditional machine learning techniques have predominantly explored monthly, seasonal or annual streamflow modelling for applications in direct downscaling or hydrological climate-impact studies. This paper identifies major drivers of daily streamflow from large-scale atmospheric circulation using two reanalysis datasets for six catchments in Norway representing various Köppen-Geiger climate types and flood-generating processes. A nested loop of roughly pruned random forests is used for feature extraction, demonstrating the potential for automated retrieval of physically consistent and interpretable input variables. Random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) for regression and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks are compared to multiple-linear regression to assess the role of model complexity in utilizing the identified major drivers to reconstruct streamflow. The machine learning models were trained on 31 years of aggregated atmospheric data with distinct moving windows for each catchment, reflecting catchment-specific forcing-response relationships between the atmosphere and the rivers. The results show that accuracy improves to some extent with model complexity. In all but the smallest, rainfall-driven catchment, the most complex model, MLP, gives a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ranging from 0.71 to 0.81 on testing data spanning five years. The poorer performance by all models in the smallest catchment is discussed in relation to catchment characteristics, sub-grid topography and local variability. The intra-model differences are also viewed in relation to the consistency between the automatically retrieved feature selections from the two reanalysis datasets. This study provides a benchmark for future development of deep learning models for direct downscaling from large-scale atmospheric variables to daily streamflow in Norway.publishedVersio

Improved streamflow forecasting using self-organizing radial basis function artificial neural networks

Streamflow forecasting has always been a challenging task for water resources engineers and managers and a major component of water resources system control. In this study, we explore the applicability of a Self Organizing Radial Basis (SORB) function to one-step ahead forecasting of daily streamflow. SORB uses a Gaussian Radial Basis Function architecture in conjunction with the Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) used in data classification. SORB outperforms the two other ANN algorithms, the well known Multi-layer Feedforward Network (MFN) and Self-Organizing Linear Output map (SOLO) neural network for simulation of daily streamflow in the semi-arid Salt River basin. The applicability of the linear regression model was also investigated and concluded that the regression model is not reliable for this study. To generalize the model and derive a robust parameter set, cross-validation is applied and its outcome is compared with the split sample test. Cross-validation justifies the validity of the nonlinear relationship set up between input and output data. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

AI Foundation Models for Weather and Climate: Applications, Design, and Implementation

Machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored in understanding the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere and furthering weather forecasting. There has been increasing interest from technology companies, government institutions, and meteorological agencies in building digital twins of the Earth. Recent approaches using transformers, physics-informed machine learning, and graph neural networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on relatively narrow spatiotemporal scales and specific tasks. With the recent success of generative artificial intelligence (AI) using pre-trained transformers for language modeling and vision with prompt engineering and fine-tuning, we are now moving towards generalizable AI. In particular, we are witnessing the rise of AI foundation models that can perform competitively on multiple domain-specific downstream tasks. Despite this progress, we are still in the nascent stages of a generalizable AI model for global Earth system models, regional climate models, and mesoscale weather models. Here, we review current state-of-the-art AI approaches, primarily from transformer and operator learning literature in the context of meteorology. We provide our perspective on criteria for success towards a family of foundation models for nowcasting and forecasting weather and climate predictions. We also discuss how such models can perform competitively on downstream tasks such as downscaling (super-resolution), identifying conditions conducive to the occurrence of wildfires, and predicting consequential meteorological phenomena across various spatiotemporal scales such as hurricanes and atmospheric rivers. In particular, we examine current AI methodologies and contend they have matured enough to design and implement a weather foundation model.Comment: 44 pages, 1 figure, updated Fig.

Predicting complex system behavior using hybrid modeling and computational intelligence

“Modeling and prediction of complex systems is a challenging problem due to the sub-system interactions and dependencies. This research examines combining various computational intelligence algorithms and modeling techniques to provide insights into these complex processes and allow for better decision making. This hybrid methodology provided additional capabilities to analyze and predict the overall system behavior where a single model cannot be used to understand the complex problem. The systems analyzed here are flooding events and fetal health care. The impact of floods on road infrastructure is investigated using graph theory, agent-based traffic simulation, and Long Short-Term Memory deep learning to predict water level rise from river gauge height. Combined with existing infrastructure models, these techniques provide a 15-minute interval for making closure decisions rather than the current 6-hour interval. The second system explored is fetal monitoring, which is essential to diagnose severe fetal conditions such as acidosis. Support Vector Machine and Random Forest were compared to identify the best model for classification of fetal state. This model provided a more accurate classification than existing research on the CTG. A deep learning forecasting model was developed to predict the future values for fetal heart rate and uterine contractions. The forecasting and classification algorithms are then integrated to evaluate the future condition of the fetus. The final model can predict the fetal state 4 minutes ahead to help the obstetricians to plan necessary interventions for preventing acidosis and asphyxiation. In both cases, time series predictions using hybrid modeling provided superior results to existing methods to predict complex behaviors”--Abstract, page iv

Multi-step Ahead Inflow Forecasting for a Norwegian Hydro-Power Use-Case, Based on Spatial-Temporal Attention Mechanism

Hydrological forecasting has been an ongoing area of research due to its importance to improve decision making on water resource management, flood management, and climate change mitigation. With the increasing availability of hydrological data, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have started to play an important role, enabling us to better understand and predict complex hydrological events. However, some challenges remain. Hydrological processes have spatial and temporal dependencies that are not always easy to capture with traditional ML models, and a thorough understanding of these dependencies is essential when developing accurate predictive models. This thesis explores the use of ML techniques in hydrological forecasting and consists of an introduction, two papers, and an application developed alongside the case study. The motivation for this research is to enhance our understanding of the spatial and temporal dependencies in hydrological processes and to explore how ML techniques, particularly those incorporating attention mechanisms, can aid in hydrological forecasting. The first paper is a chronological literature review that explores the development of data-driven forecasting in hydrology, and highlighting the potential application of attention mechanisms in hydrological forecasting. These attention mechanisms have proven to be successful in various domains, allowing models to focus on the most relevant parts of the input for making predictions, which is particularly useful when dealing with spatial and temporal data. The second paper is a case study of a specific ML model incorporating these attention mechanisms. The focus is to illustrate the influence of spatial and temporal dependencies in a real-world hydrological forecasting scenario, thereby showcasing the practical application of these techniques. In parallel with the case study, an application has been developed, employing the principles and techniques discovered throughout the course of this research. The application aims to provide a practical demonstration of the concepts explored in the thesis, contributing to the field of hydrological forecasting by introducing a tool for hydropower suppliers.Masteroppgave i Programvareutvikling samarbeid med HVLPROG399MAMN-PRO