Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: Is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?

In this comment we discuss the problem of reconciling the linear efficiency of price returns with the long-memory of supply and demand. We present new evidence that shows that efficiency is maintained by a liquidity imbalance that co-moves with the imbalance of buyer vs. seller initiated transactions. For example, during a period where there is an excess of buyer initiated transactions, there is also more liquidity for buy orders than sell orders, so that buy orders generate smaller and less frequent price responses than sell orders. At the moment a buy order is placed the transaction sign imbalance tends to dominate, generating a price impact. However, the liquidity imbalance rapidly increases with time, so that after a small number of time steps it cancels all the inefficiency caused by the transaction sign imbalance, bounding the price impact. While the view presented by Bouchaud et al. of a fixed and temporary bare price impact is self-consistent and formally correct, we argue that viewing this in terms of a variable but permanent price impact provides a simpler and more natural view. This is in the spirit of the original conjecture of Lillo and Farmer, but generalized to allow for finite time lags in the build up of the liquidity imbalance after a transaction. We discuss the possible strategic motivations that give rise to the liquidity imbalance and offer an alternative hypothesis. We also present some results that call into question the statistical significance of large swings in expected price impact at long times.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

The impact of financial restatements on financial markets: A systematic review of the literature

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss the most relevant issues related to the impact of financial restatements in the dynamics of financial markets and identify several research gaps to be investigated in future research. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology is based on a systematic review of the literature described by Tranfield et al. (2003). The final sample includes 47 academic papers published from 1996 to 2019. Findings: Papers in this domain discuss three main topics: how the market prices the announcement of a financial restatement; how financial restatements affect the announcing firm’s cost of capital and how financial restatements affect firms’ reputation. There are several issues to explore in future research, including whether financial restatements affect the dynamics of financial markets in Europe, whether the market fully and promptly assimilates the information content of a restatement, the role of financial analysts’ information disclosures in this process or how regulators may improve the way they provide investors with timely information about firms’ restating problems. Research limitations/implications: There is always some degree of subjectivity in the definition of the keywords, search strings and selection criteria in a systematic review. These are all important aspects, as they delimitate the scope of the study and define the sample of papers to be reviewed. Practical implications: The answers to the research questions identified in this paper may provide regulators with information to improve financial accounting and reporting standards and strengthen investors’ confidence in accounting information and the dynamics of financial markets. Originality/value: This paper systematically reviews the relevant literature exploring the connection between financial restatements and the dynamics of financial markets. It contributes to the academic community by identifying several research questions that may impact the theory and practice related to accounting quality and capital markets.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Naked short selling: The emperor`s new clothes?

Regulatory and media concern has focused heavily on the potentially manipulative distortion of market prices associated with naked short selling. However, naked shorting can also have beneficial effects for liquidity and pricing efficiency. We empirically investigate the impact of naked short-selling on market quality, and find that naked shorting leads to significant reduction in positive pricing errors, the volatility of stock price returns, bid-ask spreads, and pricing error volatility. We study naked shorting surrounding the demise of financial institutions hardest hit by the financial crisis in 2008 and find no evidence that stock price declines were caused by naked shorting. We also find that naked short-selling intensifies after rather than before credit downgrade announcements during the 2008 financial crisis. In general, we find that naked short sellers respond to public news and intensify their activity after price declines rather than triggering these price declines. We study the impact of the SEC ban on naked short selling of financial securities during July and August 2008, and find that the ban did not slow the price decline of those securities and had a negative impact on liquidity and pricing efficiency. Finally, after examining the speeds of mean reversion of pricing errors and order imbalances, we infer that Regulation SHO was successful in curbing the impact of manipulative naked short selling, and this reduction in the impact of manipulative naked shorting has continued through the 2008 financial crisis. Overall, our empirical results are in sharp contrast with the extremely negative preconceptions that appear to exist among media commentators and market regulators in relation to naked shortselling. --Naked Short Selling,Short Selling,Pricing Efficiency

How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand

In this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in supply and demand are slowly incorporated into prices. Because revealed market liquidity is extremely low, large orders to buy or sell can only be traded incrementally, over periods of time as long as months. As a result order flow is a highly persistent long-memory process. Maintaining compatibility with market efficiency has profound consequences on price formation, on the dynamics of liquidity, and on the nature of impact. We review a body of theory that makes detailed quantitative predictions about the volume and time dependence of market impact, the bid-ask spread, order book dynamics, and volatility. Comparisons to data yield some encouraging successes. This framework suggests a novel interpretation of financial information, in which agents are at best only weakly informed and all have a similar and extremely noisy impact on prices. Most of the processed information appears to come from supply and demand itself, rather than from external news. The ideas reviewed here are relevant to market microstructure regulation, agent-based models, cost-optimal execution strategies, and understanding market ecologies.Comment: 111 pages, 24 figure

Wisdom of Experts and Crowds: Different Impacts of Analyst Recommendation and Online Search on the Stock Market

Sell-side analysts are professional experts while crowds are usually unsophisticated individual investors in the stock market. Understanding the different roles of experts and crowds in the stock market is a fundamental issue for both academia and industry. This empirical study tries to investigate their influences on the stock market by figuring out the following two questions: (1) Will experts and crowds have different impacts on stock prices? (2) Will experts and crowds discriminatively affect stock trading volumes? Adopting the fixed-effect model with panel data from Sogou and CSMAR, we find that experts and crowds have different impacts on the stock market. The wisdom of experts (i.e., analyst recommendation) has a more durable effect on stock prices but a smaller impact on stock turnover compared to the wisdom of crowds (i.e., abnormal search volume index)

Three Essays on Informed Trading

This thesis consists of three essays examining the behavior of informed traders in financial markets and how they affect asset pricing. It examines informed traders’ role in shaping securities prices in three ways. It examines whether on a macro and micro basis insider traders move prices to a different degree than non-insiders. In addition, it uses econometric methods to determine what exchange generates permanent price trends in UK shares. Lastly, it looks at another side effect of fragmentation – how a ‘best execution’ mandate and related market structure changes affect transactions costs in liquid UK, French, and German shares. These studies expand on current literature in various ways – extant insider trading literature has either primarily focused on daily price movement and volume or had consisted of case studies, the conclusions of which may be idiosyncratic and therefore unrepresentative of typical insider behavior. The new phenomenon of multilateral trading facilities (also known as electronic communications networks) and the proliferation of algorithmic or computer-mediated trading had not been examined in price discovery papers, due to their relative novelty. In addition, despite a bevy of literature offering informed insight into the impact of the European Union’s Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), there has been a dearth of empirical studies assessing its impact on European securities markets. Chapters 2 and 3 examine MiFID and computerized trading from two different perspectives: that of which trades lead to permanent prices, and that of transactions costs. The conclusions drawn in this thesis will be of interest to regulators, market operators, and traders, as they offer insight into the impact of market structure and how it impacts informed traders who participate in them

The Rise and Fall of the dot com Entrepreneurs

This paper looks at the dot com phenomenon drawing mainly on examples from the USA where the boom started and was most pronounced, but also from the UK which had a number of high profile dot coms. It starts by asking the question, ‘Who were the dot coms?’. it then goes on to consider the factors which led to the emergence of the dot coms such as the emergence of the commercial Internet, the lowering of entry barriers which followed from this and the funding available for new businesses through venture capital. The article also looks at the reasons why it was believed that the dot coms represented a threat to established businesses. The article then looks at the booming IPO market for dot coms and the opportunities this provided for exit by venture capital investors. The crash of 2000 is considered, lessons are drawn for entrepreneurs and investors and finally the article will look at future prospects for the dot com sector

Toward a process theory of entrepreneurship: revisiting opportunity identification and entrepreneurial actions

This dissertation studies the early development of new ventures and small business and the entrepreneurship process from initial ideas to viable ventures. I unpack the micro-foundations of entrepreneurial actions and new ventures’ investor communications through quality signals to finance their growth path. This dissertation includes two qualitative papers and one quantitative study. The qualitative papers employ an inductive multiple-case approach and include seven medical equipment manufacturers (new ventures) in a nascent market context (the mobile health industry) across six U.S. states and a secondary data analysis to understand the emergence of opportunities and the early development of new ventures. The quantitative research chapter includes 770 IPOs in the manufacturing industries in the U.S. and investigates the legitimation strategies of young ventures to gain resources from targeted resource-holders.Open Acces

Effects of Search Volume Index On Return Of Hospitality Industry Stock

This study proposes a new indicator of stock price in hospitality industry by using the search volume index from search engine. The search volume index of a hotel is calculated by the customer’s search frequencies and can be treated as a proxy of customers’ attentions on the hotel. Therefore, search volume index is proposed to be used to predict the returns of the hotel’s stock. Monthly returns of all the stocks of hospitality industry in America market has been collected. A panel data model has been applied to analyze the effect of the search volume index of these hotels from Google Trends on their stocks returns. The result indicates that the hotel’s stocks will have excessive returns when it has gotten an abnormal search volume inde