4 research outputs found
The application of componentised modelling techniques to catastrophe model generation
In this paper we show that integrated environmental modelling (IEM) techniques can be used to
generate a catastrophe model for groundwater flooding. Catastrophe models are probabilistic models
based upon sets of events representing the hazard and weights their likelihood with the impact of such
an event happening which is then used to estimate future financial losses. These probabilistic loss estimates
often underpin re-insurance transactions. Modelled loss estimates can vary significantly, because
of the assumptions used within the models. A rudimentary insurance-style catastrophe model for
groundwater flooding has been created by linking seven individual components together. Each component is linked to the next using an open modelling framework (i.e. an implementation of OpenMI). Finally, we discuss how a flexible model integration methodology, such as described in this paper, facilitates a better understanding of the assumptions used within the catastrophe model by enabling the interchange of model components created using different, yet appropriate, assumptions