The Impact of HIV/AIDS in the Context of Socioeconomic Stressors: an Evidence-Driven Approach

In this paper, we present an agent-based simulation model of the social impacts of HIV/AIDS in villages in the Sekhukhune district of the Limpopo province in South Africa. AIDS is a major concern in South Africa, not just in terms of disease spread but also in term of its impact on society and economic development. The impact of the disease cannot however be considered in isolation from other stresses, such as food insecurity, high climate variability, market fluctuations and variations in support from government and non-government sources. The model described in this paper focuses on decisions made at the individual and household level, based upon evidence from detailed case studies, and the different types of networks between these players that influence their decision making. Key to the model is that these networks are dynamic and co-evolving, something that has rarely been considered in social network analysis. The results presented here demonstrate how this type of simulation can aid better understanding of this complex interplay of issues. In turn, we hope that this will prove to be a powerful tool for policy development.Agent-Based Social Simulation, Evidence-Driven Modeling, Socioeconomic Stressors, HIV/AIDS Impact

Implementation Of Fuzzy Logic Control Into An Equivalent Minimization Strategy For Adaptive Energy Management Of A Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicle

As government agencies continue to tighten emissions regulations due to the continued increase in greenhouse gas production, automotive industries are seeking to produce increasingly efficient vehicle technology. Electric vehicles have been introduced by the industry, showing promising signs of reducing emissions production in the automotive sector. However, many consumers may be hesitant to purchase fully electric vehicles due to several uncertainty variables including available charging stations. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been introduced to reduce problems while improving fuel economy. HEVs have led to the demand of creating more advanced controls software to consider multiple components for propulsive power in a vehicle. A large section in the software development process is the implementation of an optimal energy management strategy meant to improve the overall fuel efficiency of the vehicle. Optimal strategies can be implemented when driving conditions are known a prior. The Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (ECMS) is an optimal control strategy that uses an equivalence factor to equate electrical to mechanical power when performing torque split determination between the internal combustion engine and electric motor for propulsive and regenerative torque. This equivalence factor is determined from offline vehicle simulations using a sensitivity analysis to provide optimal fuel economy results while maintaining predetermined high voltage battery state of charge (SOC) constraints. When the control hierarchy is modified or different driving styles are applied, the analysis must be redone to update the equivalence factor. The goal of this work is to implement a fuzzy logic controller that dynamically updates the equivalence factor to improve fuel economy, maintain a strict charge sustaining window of operation for the high voltage battery, and reduce computational time required during algorithm development. The adaptive algorithm is validated against global optimum fuel economy and charge sustaining results from a sensitivity analysis performed for multiple drive cycles. Results show a maximum fuel economy improvement of 9.82% when using a mild driving style and a 95% success rate when maintaining an ending SOC within 5% regardless of starting SOC. Recommendations for modification of the fuzzy logic controller are made to produce additional fuel economy and charge sustaining benefits from the parallel hybrid vehicle model

Real-time sensor data development for smart truck drivetrains

Heavy articulated transport vehicles have a poor reputation associated with dramatic road accidents with frequent fatalities for those in automobiles. The result of this work is a formal data flow structure to enhance real-time decision-making in complex mechanical systems to increase performance capability and responsiveness to human commands. This structure recognizes the multiple layers of highly non-linear mechanical components (actuators, wheel tire & ground surfaces, controllers, power supplies, human/machine interfaces, etc.) that must operate in unison (i.e., reduce conflicts) in real-time (in milli-seconds) to enhance operator (driver) control to maximize human choice. This work contains a discussion on dependable sensor data is vital in complex systems that rely on a suite of sensors for both control as well as condition monitoring purposes as well as discussion on real-time energy distribution analysis in high momentum mechanical systems. The focus will be on tractor trucks of class 7 & 8 that are outfitted with an array of low-cost redundant sensors leveraging advances in intelligent robotic systems. This work details many topics including: Most relevant sensor types and their technologies, Designing, implementing, and maintaining a multi-sensor system using feasible industry standards, Sensor signal integrity and data flow processing for decision making, Asynchronous data flow methods for operating decision making schemes in real-time, Multiple applications to enhance tractor trucks systems with multi-sensor systems for real-time decision making.Mechanical Engineerin

Fractals in the Nervous System: conceptual Implications for Theoretical Neuroscience

This essay is presented with two principal objectives in mind: first, to document the prevalence of fractals at all levels of the nervous system, giving credence to the notion of their functional relevance; and second, to draw attention to the as yet still unresolved issues of the detailed relationships among power law scaling, self-similarity, and self-organized criticality. As regards criticality, I will document that it has become a pivotal reference point in Neurodynamics. Furthermore, I will emphasize the not yet fully appreciated significance of allometric control processes. For dynamic fractals, I will assemble reasons for attributing to them the capacity to adapt task execution to contextual changes across a range of scales. The final Section consists of general reflections on the implications of the reviewed data, and identifies what appear to be issues of fundamental importance for future research in the rapidly evolving topic of this review

Agoric computation: trust and cyber-physical systems

In the past two decades advances in miniaturisation and economies of scale have led to the emergence of billions of connected components that have provided both a spur and a blueprint for the development of smart products acting in specialised environments which are uniquely identifiable, localisable, and capable of autonomy. Adopting the computational perspective of multi-agent systems (MAS) as a technological abstraction married with the engineering perspective of cyber-physical systems (CPS) has provided fertile ground for designing, developing and deploying software applications in smart automated context such as manufacturing, power grids, avionics, healthcare and logistics, capable of being decentralised, intelligent, reconfigurable, modular, flexible, robust, adaptive and responsive. Current agent technologies are, however, ill suited for information-based environments, making it difficult to formalise and implement multiagent systems based on inherently dynamical functional concepts such as trust and reliability, which present special challenges when scaling from small to large systems of agents. To overcome such challenges, it is useful to adopt a unified approach which we term agoric computation, integrating logical, mathematical and programming concepts towards the development of agent-based solutions based on recursive, compositional principles, where smaller systems feed via directed information flows into larger hierarchical systems that define their global environment. Considering information as an integral part of the environment naturally defines a web of operations where components of a systems are wired in some way and each set of inputs and outputs are allowed to carry some value. These operations are stateless abstractions and procedures that act on some stateful cells that cumulate partial information, and it is possible to compose such abstractions into higher-level ones, using a publish-and-subscribe interaction model that keeps track of update messages between abstractions and values in the data. In this thesis we review the logical and mathematical basis of such abstractions and take steps towards the software implementation of agoric modelling as a framework for simulation and verification of the reliability of increasingly complex systems, and report on experimental results related to a few select applications, such as stigmergic interaction in mobile robotics, integrating raw data into agent perceptions, trust and trustworthiness in orchestrated open systems, computing the epistemic cost of trust when reasoning in networks of agents seeded with contradictory information, and trust models for distributed ledgers in the Internet of Things (IoT); and provide a roadmap for future developments of our research

Backwards is the way forward: feedback in the cortical hierarchy predicts the expected future

Clark offers a powerful description of the brain as a prediction machine, which offers progress on two distinct levels. First, on an abstract conceptual level, it provides a unifying framework for perception, action, and cognition (including subdivisions such as attention, expectation, and imagination). Second, hierarchical prediction offers progress on a concrete descriptive level for testing and constraining conceptual elements and mechanisms of predictive coding models (estimation of predictions, prediction errors, and internal models)

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version

From Microbial Communities to Distributed Computing Systems

A distributed biological system can be defined as a system whose components are located in different subpopulations, which communicate and coordinate their actions through interpopulation messages and interactions. We see that distributed systems are pervasive in nature, performing computation across all scales, from microbial communities to a flock of birds. We often observe that information processing within communities exhibits a complexity far greater than any single organism. Synthetic biology is an area of research which aims to design and build synthetic biological machines from biological parts to perform a defined function, in a manner similar to the engineering disciplines. However, the field has reached a bottleneck in the complexity of the genetic networks that we can implement using monocultures, facing constraints from metabolic burden and genetic interference. This makes building distributed biological systems an attractive prospect for synthetic biology that would alleviate these constraints and allow us to expand the applications of our systems into areas including complex biosensing and diagnostic tools, bioprocess control and the monitoring of industrial processes. In this review we will discuss the fundamental limitations we face when engineering functionality with a monoculture, and the key areas where distributed systems can provide an advantage. We cite evidence from natural systems that support arguments in favor of distributed systems to overcome the limitations of monocultures. Following this we conduct a comprehensive overview of the synthetic communities that have been built to date, and the components that have been used. The potential computational capabilities of communities are discussed, along with some of the applications that these will be useful for. We discuss some of the challenges with building co-cultures, including the problem of competitive exclusion and maintenance of desired community composition. Finally, we assess computational frameworks currently available to aide in the design of microbial communities and identify areas where we lack the necessary tool