Big Data Risk Assessment the 21st Century approach to safety science

Safety Science has been developed over time with notable models in the early 20th Century such as Heinrich’s iceberg model and the Swiss cheese model. Common techniques such fault tree and event tree analyses, HAZOP analysis and bow-ties construction are widely used within industry. These techniques are based on the concept that failures of a system can be caused by deviations or individual faults within a system, combinations of latent failures, or even where each part of a complex system is operating within normal bounds but a combined effect creates a hazardous situation. In this era of Big Data, systems are becoming increasingly complex, producing such a large quantity of data related to safety that cannot be meaningfully analysed by humans to make decisions or uncover complex trends that may indicate the presence of hazards. More subtle and automated techniques for mining these data are required to provide a better understanding of our systems and the environment within which they operate, and insights to hazards that may not otherwise be identified. Big Data Risk Analysis (BDRA) is a suite of techniques being researched to identify the use of non-traditional techniques from big data sources to predict safety risk. This paper describes early trials of BDRA that have been conducted on railway signal information and text-based reports of railway safety near misses and the ongoing research that is looking at combining various data sources to uncover obscured trends that cannot be identified by considering each source individually. The paper also discusses how visual analytics may be a key tool in analysing Big Data to support knowledge elicitation and decision-making, as well as providing information in a form that can be readily interpreted by a variety of audiences

An Intelligent System for Investigations and Provision of Safety for Complex Constructions

Methodology of computer-aided investigation and provision of safety for complex constructions and a prototype of the intelligent applied system, which implements it, are considered. The methodology is determined by the model of the object under scrutiny, by the structure and functions of investigation of safety as well as by a set of research methods. The methods are based on the technologies of object-oriented databases, expert systems and on the mathematical modeling. The intelligent system’s prototype represents component software, which provides for support of decision making in the process of safety investigations and investigation of the cause of failure. Support of decision making is executed by analogy, by determined search for the precedents (cases) with respect to predicted (on the stage of design) and observed (on the stage of exploitation) parameters of the damage, destruction and malfunction of a complex hazardous construction

Augmenting a Hazard Analysis Method with Error Propagation Information for Safety-Critical Systems

Safety-critical system development requires an explicit design to manage component failures and unanticipated conditions of abnormal interaction between system components as hazards that affect the safety and reliability of the system. The potential effects of residual hazards in the operational system context must be reduced to an acceptable level of risk. System reliability focuses on providing continued operational capability in spite of failures. System safety focuses on unsafe conditions because of failures and unpredicted interactions between system components

Ontology based data warehouse modelling - a methodology for managing petroleum field ecosystems

Petroleum field ecosystems offer an interesting and productive domain for ontology based data warehousing model and methodology development. This paper explains the opportunities and challenges confronting modellers, methodologists, and managers operating in the petroleum business and provides some detailed techniques and suggested methods for constructing and using the ontology based warehouse.Ecologically sensitive operations such as well drilling, well production, exploration, and reservoir development can be guided and carefully planned based on data mined from a suitable constructed data warehouse. Derivation of business intelligence, simulations and vizualisation can also be driven by online analytical processing based on warehoused data and metadata

Learning from text-based close call data

A key feature of big data is the variety of data sources that are available; which include not just numerical data but also image or video data or even free text. The GB railways collects a large volume of free text data daily from railway workers describing close call hazard reports: instances where an accident could have – but did not – occur. These close call reports contain valuable safety information which could be useful in managing safety on the railway, but which can be lost in the very large volume of data – much larger than is viable for a human analyst to read. This paper describes the application of rudimentary natural language processing (NLP) techniques to uncover safety information from close calls. The analysis has proven that basic information extraction is possible using the rudimentary techniques, but has also identified some limitations that arise using only basic techniques. Using these findings further research in this area intends to look at how the techniques that have been proven to date can be improved with the use of more advanced NLP techniques coupled with machine-learning

Conceptual graph-based knowledge representation for supporting reasoning in African traditional medicine

Although African patients use both conventional or modern and traditional healthcare simultaneously, it has been proven that 80% of people rely on African traditional medicine (ATM). ATM includes medical activities stemming from practices, customs and traditions which were integral to the distinctive African cultures. It is based mainly on the oral transfer of knowledge, with the risk of losing critical knowledge. Moreover, practices differ according to the regions and the availability of medicinal plants. Therefore, it is necessary to compile tacit, disseminated and complex knowledge from various Tradi-Practitioners (TP) in order to determine interesting patterns for treating a given disease. Knowledge engineering methods for traditional medicine are useful to model suitably complex information needs, formalize knowledge of domain experts and highlight the effective practices for their integration to conventional medicine. The work described in this paper presents an approach which addresses two issues. First it aims at proposing a formal representation model of ATM knowledge and practices to facilitate their sharing and reusing. Then, it aims at providing a visual reasoning mechanism for selecting best available procedures and medicinal plants to treat diseases. The approach is based on the use of the Delphi method for capturing knowledge from various experts which necessitate reaching a consensus. Conceptual graph formalism is used to model ATM knowledge with visual reasoning capabilities and processes. The nested conceptual graphs are used to visually express the semantic meaning of Computational Tree Logic (CTL) constructs that are useful for formal specification of temporal properties of ATM domain knowledge. Our approach presents the advantage of mitigating knowledge loss with conceptual development assistance to improve the quality of ATM care (medical diagnosis and therapeutics), but also patient safety (drug monitoring)

Measurable Safety of Automated Driving Functions in Commercial Motor Vehicles

With the further development of automated driving, the functional performance increases resulting in the need for new and comprehensive testing concepts. This doctoral work aims to enable the transition from quantitative mileage to qualitative test coverage by aggregating the results of both knowledge-based and data-driven test platforms. The validity of the test domain can be extended cost-effectively throughout the software development process to achieve meaningful test termination criteria

A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and eco- nomics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptual- ization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering

Measurable Safety of Automated Driving Functions in Commercial Motor Vehicles - Technological and Methodical Approaches

Fahrerassistenzsysteme sowie automatisiertes Fahren leisten einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Verbesserung der Verkehrssicherheit von Kraftfahrzeugen, insbesondere von Nutzfahrzeugen. Mit der Weiterentwicklung des automatisierten Fahrens steigt hierbei die funktionale Leistungsfähigkeit, woraus Anforderungen an neue, gesamtheitliche Erprobungskonzepte entstehen. Um die Absicherung höherer Stufen von automatisierten Fahrfunktionen zu garantieren, sind neuartige Verifikations- und Validierungsmethoden erforderlich. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, durch die Aggregation von Testergebnissen aus wissensbasierten und datengetriebenen Testplattformen den Übergang von einer quantitativen Kilometerzahl zu einer qualitativen Testabdeckung zu ermöglichen. Die adaptive Testabdeckung zielt somit auf einen Kompromiss zwischen Effizienz- und Effektivitätskriterien für die Absicherung von automatisierten Fahrfunktionen in der Produktentstehung von Nutzfahrzeugen ab. Diese Arbeit umfasst die Konzeption und Implementierung eines modularen Frameworks zur kundenorientierten Absicherung automatisierter Fahrfunktionen mit vertretbarem Aufwand. Ausgehend vom Konfliktmanagement für die Anforderungen der Teststrategie werden hochautomatisierte Testansätze entwickelt. Dementsprechend wird jeder Testansatz mit seinen jeweiligen Testzielen integriert, um die Basis eines kontextgesteuerten Testkonzepts zu realisieren. Die wesentlichen Beiträge dieser Arbeit befassen sich mit vier Schwerpunkten: * Zunächst wird ein Co-Simulationsansatz präsentiert, mit dem sich die Sensoreingänge in einem Hardware-in-the-Loop-Prüfstand mithilfe synthetischer Fahrszenarien simulieren und/ oder stimulieren lassen. Der vorgestellte Aufbau bietet einen phänomenologischen Modellierungsansatz, um einen Kompromiss zwischen der Modellgranularität und dem Rechenaufwand der Echtzeitsimulation zu erreichen. Diese Methode wird für eine modulare Integration von Simulationskomponenten, wie Verkehrssimulation und Fahrdynamik, verwendet, um relevante Phänomene in kritischen Fahrszenarien zu modellieren. * Danach wird ein Messtechnik- und Datenanalysekonzept für die weltweite Absicherung von automatisierten Fahrfunktionen vorgestellt, welches eine Skalierbarkeit zur Aufzeichnung von Fahrzeugsensor- und/ oder Umfeldsensordaten von spezifischen Fahrereignissen einerseits und permanenten Daten zur statistischen Absicherung und Softwareentwicklung andererseits erlaubt. Messdaten aus länderspezifischen Feldversuchen werden aufgezeichnet und zentral in einer Cloud-Datenbank gespeichert. * Anschließend wird ein ontologiebasierter Ansatz zur Integration einer komplementären Wissensquelle aus Feldbeobachtungen in ein Wissensmanagementsystem beschrieben. Die Gruppierung von Aufzeichnungen wird mittels einer ereignisbasierten Zeitreihenanalyse mit hierarchischer Clusterbildung und normalisierter Kreuzkorrelation realisiert. Aus dem extrahierten Cluster und seinem Parameterraum lassen sich die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit jedes logischen Szenarios und die Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen der zugehörigen Parameter ableiten. Durch die Korrelationsanalyse von synthetischen und naturalistischen Fahrszenarien wird die anforderungsbasierte Testabdeckung adaptiv und systematisch durch ausführbare Szenario-Spezifikationen erweitert. * Schließlich wird eine prospektive Risikobewertung als invertiertes Konfidenzniveau der messbaren Sicherheit mithilfe von Sensitivitäts- und Zuverlässigkeitsanalysen durchgeführt. Der Versagensbereich kann im Parameterraum identifiziert werden, um die Versagenswahrscheinlichkeit für jedes extrahierte logische Szenario durch verschiedene Stichprobenverfahren, wie beispielsweise die Monte-Carlo-Simulation und Adaptive-Importance-Sampling, vorherzusagen. Dabei führt die geschätzte Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Sicherheitsverletzung für jedes gruppierte logische Szenario zu einer messbaren Sicherheitsvorhersage. Das vorgestellte Framework erlaubt es, die Lücke zwischen wissensbasierten und datengetriebenen Testplattformen zu schließen, um die Wissensbasis für die Abdeckung der Operational Design Domains konsequent zu erweitern. Zusammenfassend zeigen die Ergebnisse den Nutzen und die Herausforderungen des entwickelten Frameworks für messbare Sicherheit durch ein Vertrauensmaß der Risikobewertung. Dies ermöglicht eine kosteneffiziente Erweiterung der Validität der Testdomäne im gesamten Softwareentwicklungsprozess, um die erforderlichen Testabbruchkriterien zu erreichen