3,759 research outputs found
Contrasting Multiple Social Network Autocorrelations for Binary Outcomes, With Applications To Technology Adoption
The rise of socially targeted marketing suggests that decisions made by
consumers can be predicted not only from their personal tastes and
characteristics, but also from the decisions of people who are close to them in
their networks. One obstacle to consider is that there may be several different
measures for "closeness" that are appropriate, either through different types
of friendships, or different functions of distance on one kind of friendship,
where only a subset of these networks may actually be relevant. Another is that
these decisions are often binary and more difficult to model with conventional
approaches, both conceptually and computationally. To address these issues, we
present a hierarchical model for individual binary outcomes that uses and
extends the machinery of the auto-probit method for binary data. We demonstrate
the behavior of the parameters estimated by the multiple network-regime
auto-probit model (m-NAP) under various sensitivity conditions, such as the
impact of the prior distribution and the nature of the structure of the
network, and demonstrate on several examples of correlated binary data in
networks of interest to Information Systems, including the adoption of Caller
Ring-Back Tones, whose use is governed by direct connection but explained by
additional network topologies
Longitudinal quantile regression in presence of informative drop-out through longitudinal-survival joint modeling
We propose a joint model for a time-to-event outcome and a quantile of a
continuous response repeatedly measured over time. The quantile and survival
processes are associated via shared latent and manifest variables. Our joint
model provides a flexible approach to handle informative drop-out in quantile
regression. A general Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization strategy based on
importance sampling is proposed, which is directly applicable under any
distributional assumption for the longitudinal outcome and random effects, and
parametric and non-parametric assumptions for the baseline hazard. Model
properties are illustrated through a simulation study and an application to an
original data set about dilated cardiomyopathies
High-dimensional Bayesian optimization with intrinsically low-dimensional response surfaces
Bayesian optimization is a powerful technique for the optimization of expensive black-box functions. It is used in a wide range of applications such as in drug and material design and training of machine learning models, e.g. large deep networks. We propose to extend this approach to high-dimensional settings, that is where the number of parameters to be optimized exceeds 10--20. In this thesis, we scale Bayesian optimization by exploiting different types of projections and the intrinsic low-dimensionality assumption of the objective function. We reformulate the problem in a low-dimensional subspace and learn a response surface and maximize an acquisition function in this low-dimensional projection. Contributions include i) a probabilistic model for axis-aligned projections, such as the quantile-Gaussian process and ii) a probabilistic model for learning a feature space by means of manifold Gaussian processes. In the latter contribution, we propose to learn a low-dimensional feature space jointly with (a) the response surface and (b) a reconstruction mapping. Finally, we present empirical results against well-known baselines in high-dimensional Bayesian optimization and provide possible directions for future research in this field.Open Acces
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