Assessing the critical material constraints on low carbon infrastructure transitions

We present an assessment method to analyze whether the disruption in supply of a group of materials endangers the transition to low-carbon infrastructure. We define criticality as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of the system of interest to that disruption. Low-carbon energy depends on multiple technologies comprised of a multitude of materials of varying criticality. Our methodology allows us to assess the simultaneous potential for supply disruption of a range of materials. Generating a specific target level of low-carbon energy implies a dynamic roll-out of technology at a specific scale. Our approach is correspondingly dynamic, and monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon energy goal. It is thus not limited to the quantification of criticality of a particular material at a particular point in time. We apply our method to criticality in the proposed UK energy transition as a demonstration, with a focus on neodymium use in electric vehicles. Although we anticipate that the supply disruption of neodymium will decrease, our results show the criticality of low carbon energy generation increases, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies. We present a number of potential responses to reduce the criticality through a reduction in supply disruption potential of the exposure of the UK to that disruption

Impact Assessment of Hypothesized Cyberattacks on Interconnected Bulk Power Systems

The first-ever Ukraine cyberattack on power grid has proven its devastation by hacking into their critical cyber assets. With administrative privileges accessing substation networks/local control centers, one intelligent way of coordinated cyberattacks is to execute a series of disruptive switching executions on multiple substations using compromised supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. These actions can cause significant impacts to an interconnected power grid. Unlike the previous power blackouts, such high-impact initiating events can aggravate operating conditions, initiating instability that may lead to system-wide cascading failure. A systemic evaluation of "nightmare" scenarios is highly desirable for asset owners to manage and prioritize the maintenance and investment in protecting their cyberinfrastructure. This survey paper is a conceptual expansion of real-time monitoring, anomaly detection, impact analyses, and mitigation (RAIM) framework that emphasizes on the resulting impacts, both on steady-state and dynamic aspects of power system stability. Hypothetically, we associate the combinatorial analyses of steady state on substations/components outages and dynamics of the sequential switching orders as part of the permutation. The expanded framework includes (1) critical/noncritical combination verification, (2) cascade confirmation, and (3) combination re-evaluation. This paper ends with a discussion of the open issues for metrics and future design pertaining the impact quantification of cyber-related contingencies

DOMAINS OF RAILWAY TRAFFIC IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC, WHICH NEED THE SAFETY IMPROVEMENT

The paper analyses the railway accidents sources in the Czech Republic on the basis of knowledge on complex system behaviour. It derives seven categories of sources of railway accidents. The individual categories include the accident sources from the same field domain. These domains are: technical related to rail traffic vehicles; technical related to rail infrastructure and railway station; railway operation control – organizational causes; railway operation control – cyber causes; control of rail traffic vehicles; attack on the train; domain legislative and other. The results show that for railway traffic safety improvement, it is necessary to pay attention to all categories, and especially to these that lead to organizational accidents origination

Comprehensive Security Research to Contribute to Critical Infrastructure Protection Contributions to Security Governance in Disaster Risk Reduction

Critical infrastructure protection (CIP) has become a major issue in civil security, emergency management and natural hazard management. The all-hazard approach has gained ground on the international scale, and the “comprehensive approach” in security policies and security research has been advanced in order to meet current and future threats based on better integrated information, assessment, policies and capabilities. This paper aims to showcase this “comprehensive approach”, highlighting its character and cross-links to CI and natural hazard and disaster management. The paper also contributes to a broader perspective on CIP by addressing current European political concepts and socio-cultural conditions, as well as possible future EU roles. A focus is put on international critical infrastructure (CI) risks, and results from an Integrated Risk Taxonomy are presented. The paper concludes with proposing socio-cultural aspects for future research topics related to CI risks and security governance

Criticality of infrastructure networks under consideration of resilience-based maintenance strategies using the example of inland waterways

Transportation infrastructures as backbone of modern, globalized, and networked societies ensure flows of people and goods and thus sustain social and economic prosperity. Concurrently, more and more infrastructure construction assets are facing the problem of systematic obsolescence due to deficient structural conditions, maintenance backlogs, and a lack of or misallocation of resources for the construction and maintenance of infrastructure buildings. This problem construct necessitates a resilience-based maintenance strategy for the asset portfolio. In particular, inland navigation as a mode of transport features large transport volumes and few redundancies. Combined with its increasing importance due to its comparatively high environmental friendliness, a predestined, yet in the literature underrepresented research subject results. This dissertation aims to investigate essential factors of infrastructure management and thereby identify the potential for improvement in the complex construct of maintenance management and related areas. The emphasis is on enhancing the resilience of inland waterways as a complex System-of-Systems with all its interdependencies. Thus, a holistic risk and resilience assessment is essential and is underlined with the aspects infrastructure availability and business decisions (Study A, B, C and D) and stakeholder communication and risk analysis (Study E, F, G) which are addressed by seven studies published as companion articles. Study A deals with assessing the reliability of transport infrastructure networks as part of supply chains, highlighting the importance of available and thus maintained infrastructure assets for functioning supply chains. Study B aims to identify critical warning times before closures of transport infrastructure networks and therefore suggests a mixed-methods approach, making it possible to derive and evaluate critical thresholds. Study C examines the corresponding company decisions, i.e., decisions as reaction towards neglected maintenance of public transport infrastructure, which comprises risk coping strategies, examined by empirical investigations. Study D extends this problem observation by showing that companies could see incentives for outsourcing if they face a lack of access to available transport infrastructure. Hence, the study analyzes facility relocation problems in dependence on infrastructure availability. Study E heads toward stakeholder communication and risk analysis and examines the processes across stakeholders, using an approach of collaborative serious gaming, which simultaneously enhances situation awareness and communication among stakeholders. Study F provides the implementation of a systemic approach and its visualization as a GIS-based risk dashboard, shedding light on interdependencies among critical infrastructures and cascading effects. Study G closes with an examination of the evaluation of the potential of infrastructure funds. For this purpose, the study conducts an online survey to determine investors’ willingness to pay for various fund mechanisms, integrating the option of private coverage. Despite the geographic focus of the case studies on Germany, valuable insights can be gained for infrastructure management that can also apply to other countries. In addition to the case study findings, general recommendations for infrastructure owners are derived. As a result, it can be stated that it is essential that maintenance strategies have to be more resilience-based than traditional strategies, which are mainly based on fixed time intervals for maintenance. Moreover, the application of both serious gaming and GIS visualization can help to enhance situation awareness and thus the resilience of infrastructure systems. An essential finding for which this dissertation provides methodological approaches is that considering the local area’s attractiveness for business locations should receive more attention regarding investment decisions. Thereby a focus should be set on the realistic threat of relocations as response to deteriorating infrastructure conditions. Eventually, public debates should strengthen the knowledge about infrastructure and its funding, while deficits in alongside mechanisms in infrastructure funding must be encountered. Consequently, this dissertation provides insights into the potential of infrastructure management. Mainly, it offers the potential to improve the resilience of the waterway transportation system and address stakeholders accordingly

An Assessment Model to Improve National Cyber Security Governance

Today, cyber space has been embraced by individuals, organizations and nations as an indispensable instrument of daily life. Accordingly, impact of cyber threats has continuously been increasing. Critical infrastructure protection and fighting against cyber threats are crucial elements of national security agendas of governments. In this regard, governments need to assess the roles and responsibilities of public and private organizations to address the problems of current cyber protection postures and to respond with reorganization and reauthorization of these postures. A risk management approach is critical in placing these efforts in an ongoing lifecycle process. In this paper, a model is proposed to be used in national cyber security risk management processes. We argue that this model simplifies and streamlines national risk management processes. For this purpose, a matrix is created to partition the problem space. Cyber threat detection and response activities constitute one dimension of the matrix. The second dimension divides the timeline of cyber incidents into three: before, during and after incidents. The resulting matrix is then populated with responsible bodies which need to address each case. As a result, a national cyber security responsibility model is proposed for policy/decision makers and academics. We believe that the proposed model would be useful for governments in analyzing their national responsibility distribution to address gaps and conflicts in their current cyber security postures and for academics in analyzing natural cyber security systems and comparative studies

Preliminary Interdependency Analysis: An Approach to Support Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessment

We present a methodology, Preliminary Interdependency Analysis (PIA), for analysing interdependencies between critical infrastructure (CI). Consisting of two phases – qualitative analysis followed by quantitative analysis – an application of PIA progresses from a relatively quick elicitation of CI-interdependencies to the building of representative CI models, and the subsequent estimation of any resilience, risk or criticality measures an assessor might be interested in. By design, stages in the methodology are both flexible and iterative, resulting in interacting CI models that are scalable and may vary significantly in complexity and fidelity, depending on the needs and requirements of an assessor. For model parameterisation, one relies on a combination of field data, sensitivity analysis and expert judgement. Facilitated by dedicated software tool support, we illustrate PIA by applying it to a complex case-study of interacting Power (distribution and transmission) and Telecommunications networks in the Rome area. A number of studies are carried out, including: 1) an investigation of how “strength of dependence” between the CIs’ components affects various measures of risk and uncertainty, 2) for resource allocation, an exploration of different, but related, notions of CI component importance, and 3) highlighting the impact of model fidelity on the estimated risk of cascades

Strategy and Spell: Art as Infrastructural Change

The essay “Strategy and Spell: Art as Infrastructural Change” is an investigation of the performative force art spaces have on the field of art and on various infrastructures at large. It is also a strategic proposition on how to envision a position for action and from which to gain leverage within the current neoliberal global context. Drawing from contemporary art, design and media theory on systemic thinking, and the post-contemporary time complex, the essay reflects on two personal projects: the exhibition space casamata (2014–2017), and the project TRAMA, developed for the 33rd São Paulo Biennial – Affective Affinities (2018). Favoring a speculative approach that tackles large-scale problematics and collective organization, it demonstrates how there are many potentialities contained in exhibition spaces and how such potentialities could, through an understanding of a contemporary art megastructure and art practice as infrastructural change, operate new experiments for the art system

Data criticality

The data moment, we argue, is not a single event, but a multiplicity of encounters that reveal what we call ‘data criticality’. Data criticality draws our attention to those moments of deciding whether and how data will exist, thus rendering data critically relevant to a societal context and imbuing data with ‘liveliness’ and agency. These encounters, we argue, also require our critical engagement. First, we develop and theorize our argument about data criticality. Second, by using predictive policing as an example, we present six moments of data criticality. A description of how data is imagined, generated, stored, selected, processed, and reused invites our reflections about data criticality within a broader range of data practices