Project scheduling under undertainty – survey and research potentials.

The vast majority of the research efforts in project scheduling assume complete information about the scheduling problem to be solved and a static deterministic environment within which the pre-computed baseline schedule will be executed. However, in the real world, project activities are subject to considerable uncertainty, that is gradually resolved during project execution. In this survey we review the fundamental approaches for scheduling under uncertainty: reactive scheduling, stochastic project scheduling, stochastic GERT network scheduling, fuzzy project scheduling, robust (proactive) scheduling and sensitivity analysis. We discuss the potentials of these approaches for scheduling projects under uncertainty.Management; Project management; Robustness; Scheduling; Stability;

A survey of the machine interference problem

This paper surveys the research published on the machine interference problem since the 1985 review by Stecke & Aronson. After introducing the basic model, we discuss the literature along several dimensions. We then note how research has evolved since the 1985 review, including a trend towards the modelling of stochastic (rather than deterministic) systems and the corresponding use of more advanced queuing methods for analysis. We conclude with some suggestions for areas holding particular promise for future studies.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) Discovery Grant 238294-200

A branch-and-bound algorithm for stable scheduling in single-machine production systems.

Robust scheduling aims at the construction of a schedule that is protected against uncertain events. A stable schedule is a robust schedule that will change little when variations in the input parameters arise. This paper proposes a branch-and-bound algorithm for optimally solving a single-machine scheduling problem with stability objective, when a single job is anticipated to be disrupted.Branch-and-bound; Construction; Event; Job; Robust scheduling; Robustness; Scheduling; Single-machine scheduling; Stability; Systems; Uncertainty;

On the construction of stable project baseline schedules.

The vast majority of project scheduling efforts assume complete information about the scheduling problem to be solved and a static deterministic environment within which the pre-computed baseline schedule will be executed. In reality, however, project activities are subject to considerable uncertainty, which generally leads to numerous schedule disruptions. It is of interest to develop pre-schedules that can absorb disruptions in activity durations without affecting the planning of other activities, such that co-ordination of resources and material procurement for each of the activities can be performed as smoothly as possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate various approaches for constructing a stable pre-schedule, which is unlikely to undergo major changes when it needs to be repaired as a reaction to minor activity duration disruptions.

Group Scheduling in a Cellular Manufacturing Shop to Minimise Total Tardiness and nT: a Comparative Genetic Algorithm and Mathematical Modelling Approach

In this paper, family and job scheduling in a cellular manufacturing shop is addressed where jobs have individual due dates. The objectives are to minimise total tardiness and the number of tardy jobs. Family splitting among cells is allowed but job splitting is not. Two optimisation methods are employed in order to solve this problem, namely mathematical modelling (MM) and genetic algorithm (GA). The results showed that GA found the optimal solution for most of the problems with high frequency. Furthermore, the proposed GA is efficient compared to the MM especially for larger problems in terms of execution times. Other critical aspects of the problem such as family preemption only, impact of family splitting on common due date scenarios and dual objective scenarios are also solved. In short, the proposed comparative approach provides critical insights for the group scheduling problem in a cellular manufacturing shop with distinctive cases

The robust single machine scheduling problem with uncertain release and processing times

In this work, we study the single machine scheduling problem with uncertain release times and processing times of jobs. We adopt a robust scheduling approach, in which the measure of robustness to be minimized for a given sequence of jobs is the worst-case objective function value from the set of all possible realizations of release and processing times. The objective function value is the total flow time of all jobs. We discuss some important properties of robust schedules for zero and non-zero release times, and illustrate the added complexity in robust scheduling given non-zero release times. We propose heuristics based on variable neighborhood search and iterated local search to solve the problem and generate robust schedules. The algorithms are tested and their solution performance is compared with optimal solutions or lower bounds through numerical experiments based on synthetic data

Solution and quality robust project scheduling: a methodological framework.

The vast majority of the research efforts in project scheduling over the past several years has concentrated on the development of exact and suboptimal procedures for the generation of a baseline schedule assuming complete information and a deterministic environment. During execution, however, projects may be the subject of considerable uncertainty, which may lead to numerous schedule disruptions. Predictive-reactive scheduling refers to the process where a baseline schedule is developed prior to the start of the project and updated if necessary during project execution. It is the objective of this paper to review possible procedures for the generation of proactive (robust) schedules, which are as well as possible protected against schedule disruptions, and for the deployment of reactive scheduling procedures that may be used to revise or re-optimize the baseline schedule when unexpected events occur. We also offer a methodological framework that should allow project management to identify the proper scheduling methodology for different project scheduling environments. Finally, we survey the basics of Critical Chain scheduling and indicate in which environments it is useful.Framework; Information; Management; Processes; Project management; Project scheduling; Project scheduling under uncertainty; Stability; Robust scheduling; Quality; Scheduling; Stability; Uncertainty;

Proactive management of uncertainty to improve scheduling robustness in proces industries

Dinamisme, capacitat de resposta i flexibilitat són característiques essencials en el desenvolupament de la societat actual. Les noves tendències de globalització i els avenços en tecnologies de la informació i comunicació fan que s'evolucioni en un entorn altament dinàmic i incert. La incertesa present en tot procés esdevé un factor crític a l'hora de prendre decisions, així com un repte altament reconegut en l'àrea d'Enginyeria de Sistemes de Procés (PSE). En el context de programació de les operacions, els models de suport a la decisió proposats fins ara, així com també software comercial de planificació i programació d'operacions avançada, es basen generalment en dades estimades, assumint implícitament que el programa d'operacions s'executarà sense desviacions. La reacció davant els efectes de la incertesa en temps d'execució és una pràctica habitual, però no sempre resulta efectiva o factible. L'alternativa és considerar la incertesa de forma proactiva, és a dir, en el moment de prendre decisions, explotant el coneixement disponible en el propi sistema de modelització.Davant aquesta situació es plantegen les següents preguntes: què s'entén per incertesa? Com es pot considerar la incertesa en el problema de programació d'operacions? Què s'entén per robustesa i flexibilitat d'un programa d'operacions? Com es pot millorar aquesta robustesa? Quins beneficis comporta? Aquesta tesi respon a aquestes preguntes en el marc d'anàlisis operacionals en l'àrea de PSE. La incertesa es considera no de la forma reactiva tradicional, sinó amb el desenvolupament de sistemes proactius de suport a la decisió amb l'objectiu d'identificar programes d'operació robustos que serveixin com a referència pel nivell inferior de control de planta, així com també per altres centres en un entorn de cadenes de subministrament. Aquest treball de recerca estableix les bases per formalitzar el concepte de robustesa d'un programa d'operacions de forma sistemàtica. Segons aquest formalisme, els temps d'operació i les ruptures d'equip són considerats inicialment com a principals fonts d'incertesa presents a nivell de programació de la producció. El problema es modelitza mitjançant programació estocàstica, desenvolupant-se finalment un entorn d'optimització basat en simulació que captura les múltiples fonts d'incertesa, així com també estratègies de programació d'operacions reactiva, de forma proactiva. La metodologia desenvolupada en el context de programació de la producció s'estén posteriorment per incloure les operacions de transport en sistemes de múltiples entitats i incertesa en els temps de distribució. Amb aquesta perspectiva més àmplia del nivell d'operació s'estudia la coordinació de les activitats de producció i transport, fins ara centrada en nivells estratègic o tàctic. L'estudi final considera l'efecte de la incertesa en la demanda en les decisions de programació de la producció a curt termini. El problema s'analitza des del punt de vista de gestió del risc, i s'avaluen diferents mesures per controlar l'eficiència del sistema en un entorn incert.En general, la tesi posa de manifest els avantatges en reconèixer i modelitzar la incertesa, amb la identificació de programes d'operació robustos capaços d'adaptar-se a un ampli rang de situacions possibles, enlloc de programes d'operació òptims per un escenari hipotètic. La metodologia proposada a nivell d'operació es pot considerar com un pas inicial per estendre's a nivells de decisió estratègics i tàctics. Alhora, la visió proactiva del problema permet reduir el buit existent entre la teoria i la pràctica industrial, i resulta en un major coneixement del procés, visibilitat per planificar activitats futures, així com també millora l'efectivitat de les tècniques reactives i de tot el sistema en general, característiques altament desitjables per mantenir-se actiu davant la globalitat, competitivitat i dinàmica que envolten un procés.Dynamism, responsiveness, and flexibility are essential features in the development of the current society. Globalization trends and fast advances in communication and information technologies make all evolve in a highly dynamic and uncertain environment. The uncertainty involved in a process system becomes a critical problem in decision making, as well as a recognized challenge in the area of Process Systems Engineering (PSE). In the context of scheduling, decision-support models developed up to this point, as well as commercial advanced planning and scheduling systems, rely generally on estimated input information, implicitly assuming that a schedule will be executed without deviations. The reaction to the effects of the uncertainty at execution time becomes a common practice, but it is not always effective or even possible. The alternative is to address the uncertainty proactively, i.e., at the time of reasoning, exploiting the available knowledge in the modeling procedure itself. In view of this situation, the following questions arise: what do we understand for uncertainty? How can uncertainty be considered within scheduling modeling systems? What is understood for schedule robustness and flexibility? How can schedule robustness be improved? What are the benefits? This thesis answers these questions in the context of operational analysis in PSE. Uncertainty is managed not from the traditional reactive viewpoint, but with the development of proactive decision-support systems aimed at identifying robust schedules that serve as a useful guidance for the lower control level, as well as for dependent entities in a supply chain environment. A basis to formalize the concept of schedule robustness is established. Based on this formalism, variable operation times and equipment breakdowns are first considered as the main uncertainties in short-term production scheduling. The problem is initially modeled using stochastic programming, and a simulation-based stochastic optimization framework is finally developed, which captures the multiple sources of uncertainty, as well as rescheduling strategies, proactively. The procedure-oriented system developed in the context of production scheduling is next extended to involve transport scheduling in multi-site systems with uncertain travel times. With this broader operational perspective, the coordination of production and transport activities, considered so far mainly in strategic and tactical analysis, is assessed. The final research point focuses on the effect of demands uncertainty in short-term scheduling decisions. The problem is analyzed from a risk management viewpoint, and alternative measures are assessed and compared to control the performance of the system in the uncertain environment.Overall, this research work reveals the advantages of recognizing and modeling uncertainty, with the identification of more robust schedules able to adapt to a wide range of possible situations, rather than optimal schedules for a hypothetical scenario. The management of uncertainty proposed from an operational perspective can be considered as a first step towards its extension to tactical and strategic levels of decision. The proactive perspective of the problem results in a more realistic view of the process system, and it is a promising way to reduce the gap between theory and industrial practices. Besides, it provides valuable insight on the process, visibility for future activities, as well as it improves the efficiency of reactive techniques and of the overall system, all highly desirable features to remain alive in the global, competitive, and dynamic process environment