Introductory Chapter: Prognostics - An Overview

Prognostics, in general, can be defined as “knowledge beforehand”. Prognostics is usually identified with medical issues. Nowadays, due to the new advances in technologies and information systems, prognostic is beginning to be employed in other fields, e.g. engineering, financial, business, et

Review of prognostic problem in condition-based maintenance.

International audienceprognostic is nowadays recognized as a key feature in maintenance strategies as it should allow avoiding inopportune maintenance spending. Real prognostic systems are however scarce in industry. That can be explained from different aspects, on of them being the difficulty of choosing an efficient technology ; many approaches to support the prognostic process exist, whose applicability is highly dependent on industrial constraints. Thus, the general purpose of the paper is to explore the way of performing failure prognostics so that manager can act consequently. Diffent aspects of prognostic are discussed. The prognostic process is (re)defined and an overview of prognostic metrics is given. Following that, the "prognostic approaches" are described. The whole aims at giving an overview of the prognostic area, both from the academic and industrial points of views

SILHIL Replication of Electric Aircraft Powertrain Dynamics and Inner-Loop Control for V&V of System Health Management Routines

Software-in-the-loop and Hardware-in-the-loop testing of failure prognostics and decision making tools for aircraft systems will facilitate more comprehensive and cost-effective testing than what is practical to conduct with flight tests. A framework is described for the offline recreation of dynamic loads on simulated or physical aircraft powertrain components based on a real-time simulation of airframe dynamics running on a flight simulator, an inner-loop flight control policy executed by either an autopilot routine or a human pilot, and a supervisory fault management control policy. The creation of an offline framework for verifying and validating supervisory failure prognostics and decision making routines is described for the example of battery charge depletion failure scenarios onboard a prototype electric unmanned aerial vehicle

An Inference-based Prognostic Framework for Health Management of Automotive Systems

This paper presents a unified data-driven prognostic framework that combines failure time data, static parameter data and dynamic time-series data. The framework employs proportional hazards model and a soft dynamic multiple fault diagnosis algorithm for inferring the degraded state trajectories of components and to estimate their remaining useful life times. The framework takes into account the cross-subsystem fault propagation, a case prevalent in any networked and embedded system. The key idea is to use Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the survival functions of error codes and symptoms (probabilistic test outcomes/prognostic indicators) from failure time data and static parameter data, and use them to infer the survival functions of components via soft dynamic multiple fault diagnosis algorithm. The average remaining useful life and its higher-order central moments (e.g., variance, skewness, kurtosis) can be estimated from these component survival functions. The framework is demonstrated on datasets derived from two automotive systems, namely hybrid electric vehicle regenerative braking system, and an electronic throttle control subsystem simulator. Although the proposed framework is validated on automotive systems, it has the potential to be applicable to a wide variety of systems, ranging from aerospace systems to buildings to power grids

Trimmed likelihood estimators for stochastic differential equations with an application to crack growth analysis from photos

We introduce trimmed likelihood estimators for processes given by a stochastic differential equation for which a transition density is known or can be approximated and present an algorithm to calculate them. To measure the fit of the observations to a given stochastic process, two performance measures based on the trimmed likelihood estimator are proposed. The approach is applied to crack growth data which are obtained from a series of photos by backtracking large cracks which were detected in the last photo. Such crack growth data are contaminated by several outliers caused by errors in the automatic image analysis. We show that trimming 20% of the data of a growth curve leads to good results when 100 obtained crack growth curves are fitted with the Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes while the fit of the Geometric Brownian Motion is significantly worse. The method is sensitive in the sense that crack curves obtained under different stress conditions provide significantly different parameter estimates

Condition-based maintenance—an extensive literature review

This paper presents an extensive literature review on the field of condition-based maintenance (CBM). The paper encompasses over 4000 contributions, analysed through bibliometric indicators and meta-analysis techniques. The review adopts Factor Analysis as a dimensionality reduction, concerning the metric of the co-citations of the papers. Four main research areas have been identified, able to delineate the research field synthetically, from theoretical foundations of CBM; (i) towards more specific implementation strategies (ii) and then specifically focusing on operational aspects related to (iii) inspection and replacement and (iv) prognosis. The data-driven bibliometric results have been combined with an interpretative research to extract both core and detailed concepts related to CBM. This combined analysis allows a critical reflection on the field and the extraction of potential future research directions

A Review on Fatigue Life Prediction Methods for Metals

Metallic materials are extensively used in engineering structures and fatigue failure is one of the most common failure modes of metal structures. Fatigue phenomena occur when a material is subjected to fluctuating stresses and strains, which lead to failure due to damage accumulation. Different methods, including the Palmgren-Miner linear damage rule- (LDR-) based, multiaxial and variable amplitude loading, stochastic-based, energy-based, and continuum damage mechanics methods, forecast fatigue life. This paper reviews fatigue life prediction techniques for metallic materials. An ideal fatigue life prediction model should include the main features of those already established methods, and its implementation in simulation systems could help engineers and scientists in different applications. In conclusion, LDR-based, multiaxial and variable amplitude loading, stochastic-based, continuum damage mechanics, and energy-based methods are easy, realistic, microstructure dependent, well timed, and damage connected, respectively, for the ideal prediction model.This research was made possible by a NPRP award NPRP 5-423-2-167 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of the Qatar Foundation)