Dynamic Optimization of Original Innovator Based on Product Life-Cycle

技术创新，特别是率先创新使企业拥有时间和产品竞争力上的优势，获得了先入优势；另一方面，模仿创新减少了企业的研发成本，更能满足顾客的需求，从而可以获得更高的成功率，使模仿创新企业获得了后入优势。从时间角度看，在模仿创新企业的产品进入市场以前，率先创新企业的原始创新产品在市场中处于完全垄断地位，随后转变为与模仿创新企业进行的产品竞争，为在竞争中获得更大的优势，创新企业将会选择对原始创新产品进行升级换代，由此可根据市场中的产品竞争形势将产品生命周期分成不同的多个阶段。另外，无论面对怎样的竞争形势，企业都面临着利润最大化的目标，或是不考虑后续影响的眼前利润最大化，或是整个产品生命周期的总利润最大化。 ...Technological innovation, especially original innovation helps enterprises gain the advantage of the time and the competitiveness of products, seize the initiative. On the other hand, imitating innovation has the advantage of cost reduction of corporate R&D and meeting customer needs better, which leads to a higher success rate and makes imitation innovative enterprises obtain a post-market advant...学位：管理学硕士院系专业：管理学院管理科学系_管理科学与工程学号：1772009115094

Social learning-based O2O model for innovative information diffusion

U skladu s kognitivnom teorijom socijalnog učenja i povezivanja informacija između online i offline mreže potrošača, u radu je konstruiran model socijalnog učenja s dva stupnja - two-stage social learning (TSSL) i online - offline ili offline - online (O2O) model učenja za istraživanje zakona o širenju informacija u kaskadnoj mreži s više razina. Inovativni model za širenje informacija utemeljen na socijalnom učenju popravlja nedostatke tradicionalnog modela za širenje informacija po kojem će se informacije s vremenom same proširiti i postavlja simulacijsku metodu društvene mreže. Empirijskim se istraživanjem pokazalo da širenje informacija utemeljeno na mreži potrošača bolje odgovara uzorkovanim podacima. Učinak socijalnog učenja ima ključnu ulogu u širenju informacija o objavljenim knjigama. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je korisno istraživati bit širenja informacija o inovativnom proizvodu te izraditi odgovarajuće strategije na elektroničkom tržištu proizvoda.According to cognitive theory of social learning and information fusion between online and offline of consumer network, this paper constructs two-stage social learning (TSSL) model and online to offline or offline to online (O2O) learning model to explore the diffusion law under the condition of multi-level cascade network. Innovative information diffusion model based on social learning makes up defects of traditional innovation diffusion model with time and emerges simulation method of social network. Empirical research shows that information diffusion which is based on the consumer network fits sample data better. Social learning effect plays a key role in the book publish diffusion. Research results show that it is beneficial to explore essence of the innovative product information diffusion and design targeted strategies in electronic commerce market

Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Social Learning and Strategic Consumers

When a product of uncertain quality is first introduced, consumers may choose to strategically delay their purchasing decisions in anticipation of the product reviews of their peers. This paper investigates how the presence of social learning affects the strategic interaction between a dynamic-pricing monopolist and a forward-looking consumer population, within a simple two-period model. Our analysis yields three main insights. First, we find that the presence of social learning has significant structural implications for optimal pricing policies: In the absence of social learning, decreasing price plans are always preferred by the firm; by contrast, in the presence of social learning we find that (i) if the firm commits to a price path ex ante (preannounced pricing), an increasing price plan is typically announced, whereas (ii) if the firm adjusts price dynamically (responsive pricing), prices are initially low and may either rise or decline over time. Second, we establish that under both preannounced and responsive pricing, even though the social learning process exacerbates strategic consumer behavior (i.e., increases strategic purchasing delays), its presence results in an increase in expected firm profit. Third, we illustrate that, contrary to results reported in existing literature on strategic consumer behavior, in settings where social learning is significantly influential, preannounced pricing policies are generally not beneficial for the firm

Time Allocation in Entrepreneurial Selling: Impact of Consumer Peer Learning and Incumbent Reaction

How should technology entrepreneurs allocate their time to potential customers? Considering two important dynamics that influence consumers’ purchase decisions regarding new technology products, consumer peer learning and incumbent reaction, we study the tactical-level time allocation decision with a simple game-theoretic model. We offer an economic rationale for the entrepreneur’s optimal time allocation for different levels of consumer peer learning and incumbent reaction as well as different revenue distributions between the buyers, and we discuss theoretical and practical implications for technology entrepreneurship

CONSUMPTION PREFERENCES, TIME AND UNCERTAINTY: IMPACTS ON RETAIL PRICING TACTICS

My dissertation is a collection of three essays with analytical models at the interface of marketing and operations with a focus on pricing. The common theme in this dissertation is studying the effect of the consumer-driven demand on the optimal operational decisions of a single firm. This dissertation includes co-authored material. In my first essay, I study the role of consumers' opposing perceptions of green quality on the optimal product line decisions, i.e., products, prices and quality by analyzing the firm's optimization problem and incorporating an endogenous demand model that emerges from the consumers' preferences while considering the cost implications of introducing a green product. My second essay is on optimal timing of price discounts. Delaying discounts, i.e., giving discounts on future spending based on current spending is a prevalent retail discounting practice. For a market of rational and forward-looking consumers who repeatedly visit and purchase with the firm, we analyze the relative efficacy of delayed credits vs. a natural alternative of immediate discounts. In my third essay, I explore a firm's optimal pricing strategy when it simultaneously rents and sells a product for which consumers have a priori valuation uncertainty

Pricing Models in the Presence of Informational and Social Externalities

This thesis studies three game theoretic models of pricing, in which a seller is interested in optimally pricing and allocating her product or service to a market of agents, in order to maximize her revenue. These markets feature a large number of self-interested agents, who are generally heterogeneous with respect to some payoff relevant feature, e.g., willingness to pay when agents are consumers or private cost when agents are firms. Agents strategically interact with one another, and their actions affect other agents' payoffs, either directly through social influence or competition, or indirectly through a review system. The seller has demand uncertainty and strives to optimize expected discounted revenues. I use either a mean-field approximation or a continuum of agents assumption to reduce the complexity of the problems and provide crisp characterizations of system aggregates and equilibrium policies. Chapter 2 considers the problem of an information provider who sells information products, such as demand forecasts, to a market of firms that compete with one another in a downstream market. We propose a general model that subsumes both price and quantity competition as special cases. We characterize the optimal selling strategy and find that it depends on both mode and intensity of competition. Several important extensions to heterogeneous production costs, information quality discrimination, and information leakage through aggregate actions are studied. Chapter 3 considers the problem of optimally extracting a stream of revenues from a sequence of consumers, who have heterogeneous willingness to pay and uncertainty about the quality of the product being sold. Using an intuitive maximum likelihood procedure, we characterize the solution of consumers' quality estimation problem. Then, we use a mean-field approximation to characterize the transient dynamics of quality estimates and demand. These allow us to simplify and solve the monopolist's problem, and ultimately provide a characterization of her optimal pricing policy. Chapter 4 considers the problem of a seller who is interested in dynamically pricing her product when consumers' utility is influenced by the mass of consumers that have purchased in the past. Two scenarios are studied, one in which the monopolist has commitment power and one in which she does not. We characterize the optimal selling strategy under both scenarios and derive comparisons on equilibrium prices and demands. Our main result is a characterization of the value of price commitment as a function of the social influence level in the market

Models for Retail Inventory Management with Demand Learning

Matching supply with demand is key to success in the volatile and competitive retail business. To this end, retailers seek to improve their inventory decisions by learning demand from various sources. More interestingly, retailers' inventory decisions may in turn obscure the demand information they observe. This dissertation examines three problems in retail contexts that involve interactions between inventory management and demand learning. First, motivated by the unprecedented adverse impact of the 2008 financial crisis on retailers, we consider the inventory control problem of a firm experiencing potential demand shifts whose timings are known but whose impacts are not known. We establish structural results about the optimal policies, construct novel cost lower bounds based on particular information relaxations, and propose near-optimal heuristic policies derived from those bounds. We then consider the optimal allocation of a limited inventory for fashion retailers to conduct "merchandise tests" prior to the main selling season as a demand learning approach. We identity a key tradeoff between the quantity and quality of demand observations. We also find that the visibility into the timing of each sales transaction has a pivotal impact on the optimal allocation decisions and the value of merchandise tests. Finally, we consider a retailer selling an experiential product to consumers who learn product quality from reviews generated by previous buyers. The retailer maximizes profit by choosing whether to offer the product for sale to each arriving customer. We characterize the optimal product offering policies to be of threshold type. Interestingly, we find that it can be optimal for the firm to withhold inventory and not to offer the product even if an arriving customer is willing to buy for sure. We numerically demonstrate that personalized offering is most valuable when the price is high and customers are optimistic but uncertain about product quality.Doctor of Philosoph

Operations Management under Financial Frictions

The main purpose of this dissertation is to study the emerging operations issues under financial frictions, in the contexts of supply chain finance and crowdfunding platform; and to identify the implications for individuals and businesses. In Chapter 1, A Supply Chain Theory of Factoring and Reverse Factoring , we develop a supply chain theory of factoring (recourse and non-recourse) and reverse factoring showing when these post-shipment financing schemes should be adopted and who really benefits from the adoption. Factoring is a financial arrangement where the supplier sells accounts receivable to the factor against a premium, and receives cash for immediate working capital needs. Reverse factoring takes advantage of the credit rating discrepancy between small supplier and large retailer, and enables supplier\u27s factoring at the retailer\u27s rate. Given the supplier\u27s credit rating and the trade credit term, recourse factoring is preferred when the supplier\u27s cash investment return rate is relatively high; non-recourse factoring is preferred within certain medium range; otherwise, factoring should not be adopted. Both factoring schemes, if adopted, benefit both the supplier and the retailer, and thus the overall supply chain. Further, we find that reverse factoring may not be always preferred by suppliers among other short-term financing options (bank loans, recourse and non-recourse factoring). Retailers should only offer reverse factoring to suppliers with low, but above a threshold, to medium cash investment return rates. The optimally designed reverse factoring program can always increase the retailer\u27s profit, but it may leave the supplier indifferent to his current financing option when followed by aggressive payment extension. Interestingly, our results suggest that it is often preferable for the retailer to extend reverse factoring to certain suppliers without any request for payment extension, and leverage the supplier\u27s willingness to carry extra inventory that increases the overall supply chain efficiency. In Chapter 2, Crowdfunding under Social Learning and Network Externalities , we investigate how the presence of both social learning and network externalities affects the strategic interaction between a crowdfunding firm and forward-looking consumers. In rewards-based crowdfunding, a firm (campaigner) pre-sells a new product and solicits financial contributions from the crowd (consumers) to cover production costs. When a crowdfunding product with uncertain quality is first introduced, consumers may choose to strategically delay their purchase in anticipation of product quality reviews. Our research yields three main insights. First, we find that in the presence of social learning and strong network externalities, an upward-sloping demand curve may arise. This so-called \textit{Veblen effect} occurs due to the interaction between social learning and strong network externalities. Second, we show that network externalities have important implications for the optimal crowdfunding reward choice. In particular, under strong network externalities, the optimal reward will induce all consumers to either adopt the product early or adopt the product late; whereas under weak network externalities, the consumers will possibly adopt the products in different periods. Third, we characterize the optimal reward strategy under financial constraints and quantify its impact on the optimal reward choice and the induced purchase pattern from consumers. These insights provide useful guidance on how firms can exploit the benefits of crowdfunding. In Chapter 3, Crowdfunding vs. Bank Financing: Effects of Market Uncertainty and Word-of-Mouth Communication , we investigate a firm\u27s optimal funding choice when launching an innovative product to the market with both market uncertainty and word-of-mouth (WoM) communication. Bank financing is a traditional source of capital for small businesses, whereas crowdfunding has recently emerged as an alternative fund-raising solution to support innovative ideas and entrepreneurial ventures. Conceivably, crowdfunding could potentially replace some of the conventional roles of bank financing, but puzzles linger over when crowdfunding is a better funding choice. We characterize the firm\u27s optimal pricing strategies under the two funding choices (i.e., bank financing and crowdfunding), compare their performances, and investigate the corresponding implications on social welfare. Among other results, we find that the firm\u27s optimal funding choice and pricing strategy depend critically on the market uncertainty, the WoM, and the initial investment requirement. More specifically, the firm would adopt intertemporal pricing under crowdfunding, where the exact format is determined by the WoM and market uncertainty; under bank financing, however, the firm should always charge a fixed price invariant to those parameters. Moreover, market uncertainty has a non-monotonic effect on the optimal funding choice: Bank financing is preferred only when the market uncertainty is within an intermediate range. The impact of initial investment requirement on the choice of funding schemes shares qualitatively a similar trend. Finally, contrary to the conventional wisdom, we find that more active social interactions in crowdfunding, although beneficial to the firm, may hurt consumers and even reduce social welfare

Disseny d'un model d'avaluació de resultats de l'activitat de màrqueting per a empreses competint al mercat català i amb relació contractual amb els seus clients

L’objectiu de la tesi doctoral és el de desenvolupar un model que permeti valorar de forma objectiva les actuacions en matèria de màrqueting portades a terme per una organització. Aquest model està constituït per un conjunt de variables descriptives i quantitatives, anomenades variables de control, juntament amb una metodologia de càlcul i un sistema d’indicadors integrat que facilita la traçabilitat de les inversions de màrqueting i explicita la relació causa-efecte entre aquestes i el valor generat per a l’organització. El model s’utilitza per a valorar dades reals d’organitzacions que operin al mercat català i que compleixin la condició de basar la relació amb els seus clients en un model contractual (com veurem més endavant, és inviable aplicar un model comú per a tot tipus d’empresa). L’objectiu, doncs, és la valoració de l’acompliment dels seus objectius en relació als seus actius de mercat (marca i valor de client) i la creació d’un model específic, no generalitzable, per a aquest tipus d’empreses. Un segon objectiu d’aquest treball és l’anàlisi de les principals publicacions especialitzades referents des d’un punt de vista global i local, proposant en primer lloc una terminologia clara en relació a l’activitat de màrqueting, l’acompliment dels seus objectius i la conceptualització d’actius de mercat, i analitzant, en segon, l’impacte d’aquests àmbits i la seva evolució en els últims quinze anys. Alguns estudis previs (Llonch et al., 2002; Ambler i Xiucun, 2003; entre d’altres) es centren a comparar empreses per sectors, funcionalitats i països. És probable, com apunta Llonch et al. (2002) al fer això, que casuístiques atribuïbles a diferències geogràfiques i nacionals es tractin erròniament com a empresarials. A tal efecte, aquest estudi elimina la variabilitat per país i sector (parcialment, aquest darrer), proposant un model acotat, tal com recomanen Ambler et al., (2001), Llonch et al (2002), entre d’altres, que pugui servir de referència en la metodologia i en la validesa conceptual, i no tant en els resultats del model en un context més genèric. Pauwels (2009) demostra la relació entre la creació d’un model predefinit de variables i la millora del càlcul de l’eficiència en la despesa en màrqueting, pel que la creació d’aquest model integrat té l’objectiu d’esdevenir una eina de Gestió del Rendiment Corporatiu (GRC, en endavant1) (Bauer, 2004) aplicada a la gestió de màrqueting i els seus actius. Aquesta particularització del GRC rep el nom de Gestió del Rendiment de Màrqueting (GRM, en endavant2) (Ambler, 2000) i el seu objectiu és el d’augmentar la usabilitat i faciliti la generació d’informació per a la presa de decisions de la línia directiva de les organitzacions. L’abast de la tesi és el de crear el model des d’una perspectiva d’avaluació de l’activitat de màrqueting per part de la línia directiva, i no pas el desenvolupament informàtic d’una eina de suport a la presa de decisions ja que això, com apunten diversos autors (Dover, 2004; Schiff, 2008) i es tractarà amb més profunditat en el capítol 5, implicaria un nivell de personalització per cada empresa que no és objectiu d’aquesta tesi.The thes is aims to develop a practical model to asses m arketing perform ance within an organization. The model is basically structured around control metrics both from a qualitative and quantitatve approach, together with an integrated system of key performance indicators that enables marketing accountability through different organisational divisions, thus stating a solid cause/effect relationship between marketing activities and the value created for the organisation. The aformentioned model is used to assess marketing activites for catalan com panies with a contract-based customer relationship. Final assessment includes also a dynamic valuation of the company's market as sets . A second objective of the thes is is to review the current state of the art of marketing assessment literature from specialized journals both from a global and a local pers pective, defining a comprehensive list of related terms about marketing performance measurement, market-asset description and valuation and an accurate analysis about its evolution throughout the last 15 years.Postprint (published version