Unsupervised tracking of time-evolving data streams and an application to short-term urban traffic flow forecasting

I am indebted to many people for their help and support I receive during my Ph.D. study and research at DIBRIS-University of Genoa. First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my supervisors Prof.Dr. Masulli, and Prof.Dr. Rovetta for the invaluable guidance, frequent meetings, and discussions, and the encouragement and support on my way of research. I thanks all the members of the DIBRIS for their support and kindness during my 4 years Ph.D. I would like also to acknowledge the contribution of the projects Piattaforma per la mobili\ue0 Urbana con Gestione delle INformazioni da sorgenti eterogenee (PLUG-IN) and COST Action IC1406 High Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet). Last and most importantly, I wish to thanks my family: my wife Shaimaa who stays with me through the joys and pains; my daughter and son whom gives me happiness every-day; and my parents for their constant love and encouragement

Early detection of health changes in the elderly using in-home multi-sensor data streams

The rapid aging of the population worldwide requires increased attention from health care providers and the entire society. For the elderly to live independently, many health issues related to old age, such as frailty and risk of falling, need increased attention and monitoring. When monitoring daily routines for older adults, it is desirable to detect the early signs of health changes before serious health events, such as hospitalizations, happen, so that timely and adequate preventive care may be provided. By deploying multi-sensor systems in homes of the elderly, we can track trajectories of daily behaviors in a feature space defined using the sensor data. In this work, we investigate a methodology for learning data distribution from streaming data and tracking the evolution of the behavior trajectories over long periods (years) using high dimensional streaming clustering and provide very early indicators of changes in health. If we assume that habitual behaviors correspond to clusters in feature space and diseases produce a change in behavior, albeit not highly specific, tracking trajectory deviations can provide hints of early illness. Retrospectively, we visualize the streaming clustering results and track how the behavior clusters evolve in feature space with the help of two dimension-reduction algorithms, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE). Moreover, our tracking algorithm in the original high dimensional feature space generates early health warning alerts if a negative trend is detected in the behavior trajectory. We validated our algorithm on synthetic data, real-world data and tested it on a pilot dataset of four TigerPlace residents monitored with a collection of motion, bed, and depth sensors over ten years. We used the TigerPlace electronic health records (EHR) to understand the residents' behavior patterns and to evaluate and explain the health warnings generated by our algorithm. The results obtained on the TigerPlace dataset show that most of the warnings produced by our algorithm can be linked to health events documented in the EHR, providing strong support for a prospective deployment of the approach.Includes bibliographical references

Building environmentally-aware classifiers on streaming data

The three biggest challenges currently faced in machine learning, in our estimation, are the staggering quantity of data we wish to analyze, the incredibly small proportion of these data that are labeled, and the apparent lack of interest in creating algorithms that continually learn during inference. An unsupervised streaming approach addresses all three of these challenges, storing only a finite amount of information to model an unbounded dataset and adapting to new structures as they arise. Specifically, we are motivated by automated target recognition (ATR) in synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) imagery, the problem of finding explosive hazards on the sea oor. It has been shown that the performance of ATR can be improved by, instead of using a single classifier for the entire ATR task, creating several specialized classifers and fusing their predictions [44]. The prevailing opinion seems be that one should have different classifiers for varying complexity of sea oor [74], but we hypothesize that fusing classifiers based on sea bottom type will yield higher accuracy and better lend itself to making explainable classification decisions. The first step of building such a system is developing a robust framework for online texture classification, the topic of this research. xi In this work, we improve upon StreamSoNG [85], an existing algorithm for streaming data analysis (SDA) that models each structure in the data with a neural gas [69] and detects new structures by clustering an outlier list with the possibilistic 1-means [62] (P1M) algorithm. We call the modified algorithm StreamSoNGv2, denoting that it is the second version, or verse, if you will, of StreamSoNG. Notable improvements include detection of arbitrarily-shaped clusters by using DBSCAN [37] instead of P1M, using growing neural gas [43] to model each structure with an adaptive number of prototypes, and an automated approach to estimate the n parameters. Furthermore, we propose a novel algorithm called single-pass possibilistic clustering (SPC) for solving the same task. SPC maintains a fixed number of structures to model the data stream. These structures can be updated and merged based only on their "footprints", that is, summary statistics that contain all of the information from the stream needed by the algorithm without directly maintaining the entire stream. SPC is built on a damped window framework, allowing the user to balance the weight between old and new points in the stream with a decay factor parameter. We evaluate the two algorithms under consideration against four state of the art SDA algorithms from the literature on several synthetic datasets and two texture datasets: one real (KTH-TIPS2b [68]) and xii one simulated. The simulated dataset, a significant research effort in itself, is of our own construction in Unreal Engine and contains on the order of 6,000 images at 720 x 720 resolution from six different texture types. Our hope is that the methodology developed here will be effective texture classifiers for use not only in underwater scene understanding, but also in improving performance of ATR algorithms by providing a context in which the potential target is embedded.Includes bibliographical references

Explainable parts-based concept modeling and reasoning

State-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) learning algorithms heavily rely on deep learning methods that exploit correlation between inputs and outputs. While effective, these methods typically provide little insight to the reasoning process used by the machine, which makes it difficult for human users to understand the process, trust the decisions made by the system, and control emergent behaviors in the system. One method to fix this is eXplainable AI (XAI), which aims to create algorithms that perform well while also providing explanations to users about the reasoning process to mitigate the problems outlined above. In this thesis, I focus on advancing the research around XAI techniques by introducing systems that provide explanations through the use of partsbased concept modeling and reasoning. Instead of correlating input to output, I correlate input to sub-parts or features of the overall concept being learned by the system. These features are used to model and reason about a concept using an explicitly defined structure. These structures provide explanations to the user by nature of how they are defined. Specifically, I introduce a shallow and deep Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) that can reason in noisy and uncertain contexts. ANFIS provides explanations in the form of learned rules that combine features to determine the overall output concept. I apply this system to real geospatial parts-based reasoning problems and evaluate the performance and explainability of the algorithm. I discover some drawbacks to the ANFIS system as traditionally defined due to dead and diminishing gradients. This leads me to focus on how to model parts-based concepts and their inherent uncertainty in other ways, namely through Spatially Attributed Relation Graphs (SARGs). I incorporate human feedback to refine the machine learning of concepts using SARGs. Finally, I present future directions for research to build on the progress presented in this thesis.Includes bibliographical references

Proceedings. 27. Workshop Computational Intelligence, Dortmund, 23. - 24. November 2017

Dieser Tagungsband enthält die Beiträge des 27. Workshops Computational Intelligence. Die Schwerpunkte sind Methoden, Anwendungen und Tools für Fuzzy-Systeme, Künstliche Neuronale Netze, Evolutionäre Algorithmen und Data-Mining-Verfahren sowie der Methodenvergleich anhand von industriellen und Benchmark-Problemen

Human-assisted self-supervised labeling of large data sets

There is a severe demand for, and shortage of, large accurately labeled datasets to train supervised computational intelligence (CI) algorithms in domains like unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and autonomous vehicles. This has hindered our ability to develop and deploy various computer vision algorithms in/across environments and niche domains for tasks like detection, localization, and tracking. Herein, I propose a new human-in-the-loop (HITL) based growing neural gas (GNG) algorithm to minimize human intervention during labeling large UAS data collections over a shared geospatial area. Specifically, I address human driven events like new class identification and mistake correction. I also address algorithm-centric operations like new pattern discovery and self-supervised labeling. Pattern discovery and identification through self-supervised labeling is made possible through open set recognition (OSR). Herein, I propose a classifier with the ability to say "I don't know" to identify outliers in the data and bootstrap deep learning (DL) models, specifically convolutional neural networks (CNNs), with the ability to classify on N+1 classes. The effectiveness of the algorithms are demonstrated using simulated realistic ray-traced low altitude UAS data from the Unreal Engine. The results show that it is possible to increase speed and reduce mental fatigue over hand labeling large image datasets.Includes bibliographical references

An integrated framework for condition-informed probabilistic risk assessment

International audienc

A Taxonomy for and Analysis of Anonymous Communications Networks

Any entity operating in cyberspace is susceptible to debilitating attacks. With cyber attacks intended to gather intelligence and disrupt communications rapidly replacing the threat of conventional and nuclear attacks, a new age of warfare is at hand. In 2003, the United States acknowledged that the speed and anonymity of cyber attacks makes distinguishing among the actions of terrorists, criminals, and nation states difficult. Even President Obama’s Cybersecurity Chief-elect recognizes the challenge of increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks. Now through April 2009, the White House is reviewing federal cyber initiatives to protect US citizen privacy rights. Indeed, the rising quantity and ubiquity of new surveillance technologies in cyberspace enables instant, undetectable, and unsolicited information collection about entities. Hence, anonymity and privacy are becoming increasingly important issues. Anonymization enables entities to protect their data and systems from a diverse set of cyber attacks and preserves privacy. This research provides a systematic analysis of anonymity degradation, preservation and elimination in cyberspace to enhance the security of information assets. This includes discovery/obfuscation of identities and actions of/from potential adversaries. First, novel taxonomies are developed for classifying and comparing well-established anonymous networking protocols. These expand the classical definition of anonymity and capture the peer-to-peer and mobile ad hoc anonymous protocol family relationships. Second, a unique synthesis of state-of-the-art anonymity metrics is provided. This significantly aids an entity’s ability to reliably measure changing anonymity levels; thereby, increasing their ability to defend against cyber attacks. Finally, a novel epistemic-based mathematical model is created to characterize how an adversary reasons with knowledge to degrade anonymity. This offers multiple anonymity property representations and well-defined logical proofs to ensure the accuracy and correctness of current and future anonymous network protocol design