Multi-agent system for flood forecasting in Tropical River Basin

It is well known, the problems related to the generation of floods, their control, and management, have been treated with traditional hydrologic modeling tools focused on the study and the analysis of the precipitation-runoff relationship, a physical process which is driven by the hydrological cycle and the climate regime and that is directly proportional to the generation of floodwaters. Within the hydrological discipline, they classify these traditional modeling tools according to three principal groups, being the first group defined as trial-and-error models (e.g., "black-models"), the second group are the conceptual models, which are categorized in three main sub-groups as "lumped", "semi-lumped" and "semi-distributed", according to the special distribution, and finally, models that are based on physical processes, known as "white-box models" are the so-called "distributed-models". On the other hand, in engineering applications, there are two types of models used in streamflow forecasting, and which are classified concerning the type of measurements and variables required as "physically based models", as well as "data-driven models". The Physically oriented prototypes present an in-depth account of the dynamics related to the physical aspects that occur internally among the different systems of a given hydrographic basin. However, aside from being laborious to implement, they rely thoroughly on mathematical algorithms, and an understanding of these interactions requires the abstraction of mathematical concepts and the conceptualization of the physical processes that are intertwined among these systems. Besides, models determined by data necessitates an a-priori understanding of the physical laws controlling the process within the system, and they are bound to mathematical formulations, which require a lot of numeric information for field adjustments. Therefore, these models are remarkably different from each other because of their needs for data, and their interpretation of physical phenomena. Although there is considerable progress in hydrologic modeling for flood forecasting, several significant setbacks remain unresolved, given the stochastic nature of the hydrological phenomena, is the challenge to implement user-friendly, re-usable, robust, and reliable forecasting systems, the amount of uncertainty they must deal with when trying to solve the flood forecasting problem. However, in the past decades, with the growing environment and development of the artificial intelligence (AI) field, some researchers have seldomly attempted to deal with the stochastic nature of hydrologic events with the application of some of these techniques. Given the setbacks to hydrologic flood forecasting previously described this thesis research aims to integrate the physics-based hydrologic, hydraulic, and data-driven models under the paradigm of Multi-agent Systems for flood forecasting by designing and developing a multi-agent system (MAS) framework for flood forecasting events within the scope of tropical watersheds. With the emergence of the agent technologies, the "agent-based modeling" and "multiagent systems" simulation methods have provided applications for some areas of hydro base management like flood protection, planning, control, management, mitigation, and forecasting to combat the shocks produced by floods on society; however, all these focused on evacuation drills, and the latter not aimed at the tropical river basin, whose hydrological regime is extremely unique. In this catchment modeling environment approach, it was applied the multi-agent systems approach as a surrogate of the conventional hydrologic model to build a system that operates at the catchment level displayed with hydrometric stations, that use the data from hydrometric sensors networks (e.g., rainfall, river stage, river flow) captured, stored and administered by an organization of interacting agents whose main aim is to perform flow forecasting and awareness, and in so doing enhance the policy-making process at the watershed level. Section one of this document surveys the status of the current research in hydrologic modeling for the flood forecasting task. It is a journey through the background of related concerns to the hydrological process, flood ontologies, management, and forecasting. The section covers, to a certain extent, the techniques, methods, and theoretical aspects and methods of hydrological modeling and their types, from the conventional models to the present-day artificial intelligence prototypes, making special emphasis on the multi-agent systems, as most recent modeling methodology in the hydrological sciences. However, it is also underlined here that the section does not contribute to an all-inclusive revision, rather its purpose is to serve as a framework for this sort of work and a path to underline the significant aspects of the works. In section two of the document, it is detailed the conceptual framework for the suggested Multiagent system in support of flood forecasting. To accomplish this task, several works need to be carried out such as the sketching and implementation of the system’s framework with the (Belief-Desire-Intention model) architecture for flood forecasting events within the concept of the tropical river basin. Contributions of this proposed architecture are the replacement of the conventional hydrologic modeling with the use of multi-agent systems, which makes it quick for hydrometric time-series data administration and modeling of the precipitation-runoff process which conveys to flood in a river course. Another advantage is the user-friendly environment provided by the proposed multi-agent system platform graphical interface, the real-time generation of graphs, charts, and monitors with the information on the immediate event taking place in the catchment, which makes it easy for the viewer with some or no background in data analysis and their interpretation to get a visual idea of the information at hand regarding the flood awareness. The required agents developed in this multi-agent system modeling framework for flood forecasting have been trained, tested, and validated under a series of experimental tasks, using the hydrometric series information of rainfall, river stage, and streamflow data collected by the hydrometric sensor agents from the hydrometric sensors.Como se sabe, los problemas relacionados con la generación de inundaciones, su control y manejo, han sido tratados con herramientas tradicionales de modelado hidrológico enfocados al estudio y análisis de la relación precipitación-escorrentía, proceso físico que es impulsado por el ciclo hidrológico y el régimen climático y este esta directamente proporcional a la generación de crecidas. Dentro de la disciplina hidrológica, clasifican estas herramientas de modelado tradicionales en tres grupos principales, siendo el primer grupo el de modelos empíricos (modelos de caja negra), modelos conceptuales (o agrupados, semi-agrupados o semi-distribuidos) dependiendo de la distribución espacial y, por último, los basados en la física, modelos de proceso (o "modelos de caja blanca", y/o distribuidos). En este sentido, clasifican las aplicaciones de predicción de caudal fluvial en la ingeniería de recursos hídricos en dos tipos con respecto a los valores y parámetros que requieren en: modelos de procesos basados en la física y la categoría de modelos impulsados por datos. Los modelos basados en la física proporcionan una descripción detallada de la dinámica relacionada con los aspectos físicos que ocurren internamente entre los diferentes sistemas de una cuenca hidrográfica determinada. Sin embargo, aparte de ser complejos de implementar, se basan completamente en algoritmos matemáticos, y la comprensión de estas interacciones requiere la abstracción de conceptos matemáticos y la conceptualización de los procesos físicos que se entrelazan entre estos sistemas. Además, los modelos impulsados por datos no requieren conocimiento de los procesos físicos que gobiernan, sino que se basan únicamente en ecuaciones empíricas que necesitan una gran cantidad de datos y requieren calibración de los datos en el sitio. Los dos modelos difieren significativamente debido a sus requisitos de datos y de cómo expresan los fenómenos físicos. La elaboración de modelos hidrológicos para el pronóstico de inundaciones ha dado grandes pasos, pero siguen sin resolverse algunos contratiempos importantes, dada la naturaleza estocástica de los fenómenos hidrológicos, es el desafío de implementar sistemas de pronóstico fáciles de usar, reutilizables, robustos y confiables, la cantidad de incertidumbre que deben afrontar al intentar resolver el problema de la predicción de inundaciones. Sin embargo, en las últimas décadas, con el entorno creciente y el desarrollo del campo de la inteligencia artificial (IA), algunos investigadores rara vez han intentado abordar la naturaleza estocástica de los eventos hidrológicos con la aplicación de algunas de estas técnicas. Dados los contratiempos en el pronóstico de inundaciones hidrológicas descritos anteriormente, esta investigación de tesis tiene como objetivo integrar los modelos hidrológicos, basados en la física, hidráulicos e impulsados por datos bajo el paradigma de Sistemas de múltiples agentes para el pronóstico de inundaciones por medio del bosquejo y desarrollo del marco de trabajo del sistema multi-agente (MAS) para los eventos de predicción de inundaciones en el contexto de cuenca hidrográfica tropical. Con la aparición de las tecnologías de agentes, se han emprendido algunos enfoques de simulación recientes en la investigación hidrológica con modelos basados en agentes y sistema multi-agente, principalmente en alerta por inundaciones, seguridad y planificación de inundaciones, control y gestión de inundaciones y pronóstico de inundaciones, todos estos enfocado a simulacros de evacuación, y este último no dirigido a la cuenca tropical, cuyo régimen hidrológico es extremadamente único. En este enfoque de entorno de modelado de cuencas, se aplican los enfoques de sistemas multi-agente como un sustituto del modelado hidrológico convencional para construir un sistema que opera a nivel de cuenca con estaciones hidrométricas desplegadas, que utilizan los datos de redes de sensores hidrométricos (por ejemplo, lluvia , nivel del río, caudal del río) capturado, almacenado y administrado por una organización de agentes interactuantes cuyo objetivo principal es realizar pronósticos de caudal y concientización para mejorar las capacidades de soporte en la formulación de políticas a nivel de cuenca hidrográfica. La primera sección de este documento analiza el estado del arte sobre la investigación actual en modelos hidrológicos para la tarea de pronóstico de inundaciones. Es un viaje a través de los antecedentes preocupantes relacionadas con el proceso hidrológico, las ontologías de inundaciones, la gestión y la predicción. El apartado abarca, en cierta medida, las técnicas, métodos y aspectos teóricos y métodos del modelado hidrológico y sus tipologías, desde los modelos convencionales hasta los prototipos de inteligencia artificial actuales, haciendo hincapié en los sistemas multi-agente, como un enfoque de simulación reciente en la investigación hidrológica. Sin embargo, se destaca que esta sección no contribuye a una revisión integral, sino que su propósito es servir de marco para este tipo de trabajos y una guía para subrayar los aspectos significativos de los trabajos. En la sección dos del documento, se detalla el marco de trabajo propuesto para el sistema multi-agente para el pronóstico de inundaciones. Los trabajos realizados comprendieron el diseño y desarrollo del marco de trabajo del sistema multi-agente con la arquitectura (modelo Creencia-Deseo-Intención) para la predicción de eventos de crecidas dentro del concepto de cuenca hidrográfica tropical. Las contribuciones de esta arquitectura propuesta son el reemplazo del modelado hidrológico convencional con el uso de sistemas multi-agente, lo que agiliza la administración de las series de tiempo de datos hidrométricos y el modelado del proceso de precipitación-escorrentía que conduce a la inundación en el curso de un río. Otra ventaja es el entorno amigable proporcionado por la interfaz gráfica de la plataforma del sistema multi-agente propuesto, la generación en tiempo real de gráficos, cuadros y monitores con la información sobre el evento inmediato que tiene lugar en la cuenca, lo que lo hace fácil para el espectador con algo o sin experiencia en análisis de datos y su interpretación para tener una idea visual de la información disponible con respecto a la cognición de las inundaciones. Los agentes necesarios desarrollados en este marco de modelado de sistemas multi-agente para el pronóstico de inundaciones han sido entrenados, probados y validados en una serie de tareas experimentales, utilizando la información de la serie hidrométrica de datos de lluvia, nivel del río y flujo del curso de agua recolectados por los agentes sensores hidrométricos de los sensores hidrométricos de campo.Programa de Doctorado en Ciencia y Tecnología Informática por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidente: María Araceli Sanchis de Miguel.- Secretario: Juan Gómez Romero.- Vocal: Juan Carlos Corrale

IMMACCS: A Multi-Agent Decision-Support System

This report describes work performed by the Collaborative Agent Design Research Center for the US Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory (MCWL), on the IMMACCS experimental decision-support system. IMMACCS (Integrated Marine Multi-Agent Command and Control System) incorporates three fundamental concepts that distinguish it from existing (i.e., legacy) command and control applications. First, it is a collaborative system in which computer-based agents assist human operators by monitoring, analyzing, and reasoning about events in near real-time. Second, IMMACCS includes an ontological model of the battlespace that represents the behavioral characteristics and relationships among real world entities such as friendly and enemy assets, infrastructure objects (e.g., buildings, roads, and rivers), and abstract notions. This object model provides the essential common language that binds all IMMACCS components into an integrated and adaptive decision-support system. Third, IMMACCS provides no ready made solutions that may not be applicable to the problems that will occur in the real world. Instead, the agents represent a powerful set of tools that together with the human operators can adjust themselves to the problem situations that cannot be predicted in advance. In this respect, IMMACCS is an adaptive command and control system that supports planning, execution and training functions concurrently. The report describes the nature and functional requirements of military command and control, the architectural features of IMMACCS that are designed to support these operational requirements, the capabilities of the tools (i.e., agents) that IMMACCS offers its users, and the manner in which these tools can be applied. Finally, the performance of IMMACCS during the Urban Warrior Advanced Warfighting Experiment held in California in March, 1999, is discussed from an operational viewpoint

Multi-platform coordination and resource management in command and control

Depuis plusieurs années, nous constatons l'augmentation de l'utilisation des techniques d'agents et multiagent pour assister l'humain dans ses tâches. Ce travail de maîtrise se situe dans la même voie. Précisément, nous proposons d'utiliser les techniques multiagent de planification et de coordination pour la gestion de ressources dans les systèmes de commande et contrôle (C2) temps réel. Le problème particulier que nous avons étudié est la conception d'un système d'aide à la décision pour les opérations anti-aérienne sur les frégates canadiennes. Dans le cas où plusieurs frégates doivent se défendre contre des menaces, la coordination est un problème d'importance capitale. L'utilisation de mécanismes de coordination efficaces permet d'éviter les actions conflictuelles et la redondance dans les engagements. Dans ce mémoire, nous présentons quatre mécanismes de coordination basés sur le partage de tâche. Trois sont basés sur les communications : la coordination centrale, le Contract Net, la coordination similaire à celle proposée par Brown; tandis que la défense de zone est basée sur les lois sociales. Nous exposons enfin les résultats auxquels nous sommes arrivés en simulant ces différents mécanismes.The use of agent and multiagent techniques to assist humans in their daily routines has been increasing for many years, notably in Command and Control (C2) systems. This thesis is is situated in this domain. Precisely, we propose to use multiagent planning and coordination techniques for resource management in real-time \acs{C2} systems. The particular problem we studied is the design of a decision-support for anti-air warfare on Canadian frigates. In the case of several frigates defending against incoming threats, multiagent coordination is a complex problem of capital importance. Better coordination mechanisms are important to avoid redundancy in engagements and inefficient defence caused by conflicting actions. In this thesis, we present four different coordination mechanisms based on task sharing. Three of these mechanisms are based on communications: central coordination, Contract Net coordination and Brown coordination, while the zone defence coordination is based on social laws. Finally, we expose the results obtained while simulating these various mechanisms

Dynamic learning of the environment for eco-citizen behavior

Le développement de villes intelligentes et durables nécessite le déploiement des technologies de l'information et de la communication (ITC) pour garantir de meilleurs services et informations disponibles à tout moment et partout. Comme les dispositifs IoT devenant plus puissants et moins coûteux, la mise en place d'un réseau de capteurs dans un contexte urbain peut être coûteuse. Cette thèse propose une technique pour estimer les informations environnementales manquantes dans des environnements à large échelle. Notre technique permet de fournir des informations alors que les dispositifs ne sont pas disponibles dans une zone de l'environnement non couverte par des capteurs. La contribution de notre proposition est résumée dans les points suivants : - limiter le nombre de dispositifs de détection à déployer dans un environnement urbain ; - l'exploitation de données hétérogènes acquises par des dispositifs intermittents ; - le traitement en temps réel des informations ; - l'auto-calibration du système. Notre proposition utilise l'approche AMAS (Adaptive Multi-Agent System) pour résoudre le problème de l'indisponibilité des informations. Dans cette approche, une exception est considérée comme une situation non coopérative (NCS) qui doit être résolue localement et de manière coopérative. HybridIoT exploite à la fois des informations homogènes (informations du même type) et hétérogènes (informations de différents types ou unités) acquises à partir d'un capteur disponible pour fournir des estimations précises au point de l'environnement où un capteur n'est pas disponible. La technique proposée permet d'estimer des informations environnementales précises dans des conditions de variabilité résultant du contexte d'application urbaine dans lequel le projet est situé, et qui n'ont pas été explorées par les solutions de l'état de l'art : - ouverture : les capteurs peuvent entrer ou sortir du système à tout moment sans qu'aucune configuration particulière soit nécessaire ; - large échelle : le système peut être déployé dans un contexte urbain à large échelle et assurer un fonctionnement correct avec un nombre significatif de dispositifs ; - hétérogénéité : le système traite différents types d'informations sans aucune configuration a priori. Notre proposition ne nécessite aucun paramètre d'entrée ni aucune reconfiguration. Le système peut fonctionner dans des environnements ouverts et dynamiques tels que les villes, où un grand nombre de capteurs peuvent apparaître ou disparaître à tout moment et sans aucun préavis. Nous avons fait différentes expérimentations pour comparer les résultats obtenus à plusieurs techniques standard afin d'évaluer la validité de notre proposition. Nous avons également développé un ensemble de techniques standard pour produire des résultats de base qui seront comparés à ceux obtenus par notre proposition multi-agents.The development of sustainable smart cities requires the deployment of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to ensure better services and available information at any time and everywhere. As IoT devices become more powerful and low-cost, the implementation of an extensive sensor network for an urban context can be expensive. This thesis proposes a technique for estimating missing environmental information in large scale environments. Our technique enables providing information whereas devices are not available for an area of the environment not covered by sensing devices. The contribution of our proposal is summarized in the following points: * limiting the number of sensing devices to be deployed in an urban environment; * the exploitation of heterogeneous data acquired from intermittent devices; * real-time processing of information; * self-calibration of the system. Our proposal uses the Adaptive Multi-Agent System (AMAS) approach to solve the problem of information unavailability. In this approach, an exception is considered as a Non-Cooperative Situation (NCS) that has to be solved locally and cooperatively. HybridIoT exploits both homogeneous (information of the same type) and heterogeneous information (information of different types or units) acquired from some available sensing device to provide accurate estimates in the point of the environment where a sensing device is not available. The proposed technique enables estimating accurate environmental information under conditions of uncertainty arising from the urban application context in which the project is situated, and which have not been explored by the state-of-the-art solutions: * openness: sensors can enter or leave the system at any time without the need for any reconfiguration; * large scale: the system can be deployed in a large, urban context and ensure correct operation with a significative number of devices; * heterogeneity: the system handles different types of information without any a priori configuration. Our proposal does not require any input parameters or reconfiguration. The system can operate in open, dynamic environments such as cities, where a large number of sensing devices can appear or disappear at any time and without any prior notification. We carried out different experiments to compare the obtained results to various standard techniques to assess the validity of our proposal. We also developed a pipeline of standard techniques to produce baseline results that will be compared to those obtained by our multi-agent proposal

Modelling and Simulation of Human-Environment Interactions

Computational models provide intelligent environmental decision support systems to understand how human decisions are shaped by, and contribute to changes in, the environment. These models provide essential tools to tackle the important issues raised by climate change, including migrations and conflicts due to resource scarcity (e.g., water resources), while accounting for the necessity of co-managing ecosystems across a population of stakeholders with diverse goals. Such socio-environmental systems are characterized by their complexity, which is reflected by an abundance of open questions. This book explores several of these open questions, based on the contributions from over 50 authors. While several books account for methodological developments in modeling socio-environmental systems, our book is unique in combining case studies, methodological innovations, and a holistic approach to training the next generation of modelers. One chapter covers the ontological, epistemological, and ethical issues raised at the intersection of sustainability research and social simulation. In another chapter, we show that the benefits of simulations are not limited to managing complex eco-systems, as they can also serve an educational mission in teaching essential rules and thus improve systems thinking competencies in the broader population

Model for WCET prediction, scheduling and task allocation for emergent agent-behaviours in real-time scenarios

[ES]Hasta el momento no se conocen modelos de tiempo real específicamente desarrollados para su uso en sistemas abiertos, como las Organizaciones Virtuales de Agentes (OVs). Convencionalmente, los modelos de tiempo real se aplican a sistemas cerrados donde todas las variables se conocen a priori. Esta tesis presenta nuevas contribuciones y la novedosa integración de agentes en tiempo real dentro de OVs. Hasta donde alcanza nuestro conocimiento, éste es el primer modelo específicamente diseñado para su aplicación en OVs con restricciones temporales estrictas. Esta tesis proporciona una nueva perspectiva que combina la apertura y dinamicidad necesarias en una OV con las restricciones de tiempo real. Ésto es una aspecto complicado ya que el primer paradigma no es estricto, como el propio término de sistema abierto indica, sin embargo, el segundo paradigma debe cumplir estrictas restricciones. En resumen, el modelo que se presenta permite definir las acciones que una OV debe llevar a cabo con un plazo concreto, considerando los cambios que pueden ocurrir durante la ejecución de un plan particular. Es una planificación de tiempo real en una OV. Otra de las principales contribuciones de esta tesis es un modelo para el cálculo del tiempo de ejecución en el peor caso (WCET). La propuesta es un modelo efectivo para calcular el peor escenario cuando un agente desea formar parte de una OV y para ello, debe incluir sus tareas o comportamientos dentro del sistema de tiempo real, es decir, se calcula el WCET de comportamientos emergentes en tiempo de ejecución. También se incluye una planificación local para cada nodo de ejecución basada en el algoritmo FPS y una distribución de tareas entre los nodos disponibles en el sistema. Para ambos modelos se usan modelos matemáticos y estadísticos avanzados para crear un mecanismo adaptable, robusto y eficiente para agentes inteligentes en OVs. El desconocimiento, pese al estudio realizado, de una plataforma para sistemas abiertos que soporte agentes con restricciones de tiempo real y los mecanismos necesarios para el control y la gestión de OVs, es la principal motivación para el desarrollo de la plataforma de agentes PANGEA+RT. PANGEA+RT es una innovadora plataforma multi-agente que proporciona soporte para la ejecución de agentes en ambientes de tiempo real. Finalmente, se presenta un caso de estudio donde robots heterogéneos colaboran para realizar tareas de vigilancia. El caso de estudio se ha desarrollado con la plataforma PANGEA+RT donde el modelo propuesto está integrado. Por tanto al final de la tesis, con este caso de estudio se obtienen los resultados y conclusiones que validan el modelo

Contemporary global challenges in geopolitics, security policy and world economy

This is the second time that the International PhD Conference has been organized by the International Relations Multidisciplinary Doctoral School of Corvinus University of Budapest. We hope this is a sign that we have created a tradition, and that the conference will be organized in the future as well. As in the previous year, most of the presentations given at this year’s conference will again be published in a collected volume in the form of edited studies, with the aim of promoting the publication performance of PhD students.The comprehensive profile of the Doctoral School, the diversity of its three subprograms – International and Security Studies, World Economy and Geopolitics – is reflected in the various topics of the studies in this volume. These include e.g. security and defence policy, challenges the world economy is facing nowadays, the institutions and policies of the European Union, the emerging powers of Asia, as well as sustainability and other important, highly relevant issues. The regions examined in the studies range from the EU through the Arab world to Latin America and Asia, and countries such as the United States, Russia, Ukraine, China, India, Jordan and Tunisia are analysed, to name just a few.The multidisciplinary nature of the Doctoral School has long been expressed in its name, mainly due to the fact that it is entitled to award degrees in two disciplines (economics and political science). Multidisciplinarity is also manifested in the diversity of the topics of this volume. Not only multidisciplinarity, but also interdisciplinarity, the presence of “frontiers” in the field of mutually interdependent disciplines can be traced in the articles, as the authors refer to e.g. law, history, security policy as well as theories of international relations

Conférence Nationale d'Intelligence Artificielle Année 2020

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Self-adaptive air-sea simulation based on multi-sensors agentification

Combat Management System training uses simulation of an overall tactical situation. This involves the real-time management of numerous and diverse entities to keep the simulation scenario consistent in a highly dynamic environment. To address this difficult problem, we propose an adaptive multi-agent system in which each entity is considered as a smart sensor/effector mobile. The autonomy and the dynamic behaviour offered to each entity leads the simulation to self-adapt to inevitable disturbances of the user. According to the cooperation paradigm, this approach also allows the mobiles to highlights a coherent global behaviour with mutual helping. Finally, the system shows the relevance of the Emergence Technologies in the elaboration of a new generation of sensors. This software is currently under development in GATES, a project of the DCNS company