Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market

Despite the significant progress made in solar forecasting over the last decade, most of the proposed models cannot be readily used by independent system operators (ISOs). This article proposes an operational solar forecasting algorithm that is closely aligned with the real-time market (RTM) forecasting requirements of the California ISO (CAISO). The algorithm first uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast system to generate hourly forecasts for a 5-h period that are issued 12 h before the actual operating hour, satisfying the lead-time requirement. Subsequently, the world's fastest similarity search algorithm is adopted to downscale the hourly forecasts generated by NAM to a 15-min resolution, satisfying the forecast-resolution requirement. The 5-h-ahead forecasts are repeated every hour, following the actual rolling update rate of CAISO. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated using the proposed algorithm are empirically evaluated over a period of 2 years at 7 locations in 5 climate zones

Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This research paper proposes a unified architecture for multi-time-horizon predictions for short and long-term solar forecasting using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The paper describes an end-to-end pipeline to implement the architecture along with the methods to test and validate the performance of the prediction model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method based on the unified architecture is effective for multi-horizon solar forecasting and achieves a lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to the previous best-performing methods which use one model for each time-horizon. The proposed method enables multi-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a high potential for practical applications in the evolving smart grid.Comment: Accepted at: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition (ECCE 2018), 7 pages, 5 figures, code available: sakshi-mishra.github.i

Comprehensive In Situ Validation of Five Satellite Land Surface Temperature Data Sets over Multiple Stations and Years

Global land surface temperature (LST) data derived from satellite-based infrared radiance measurements are highly valuable for various applications in climate research. While in situ validation of satellite LST data sets is a challenging task, it is needed to obtain quantitative information on their accuracy. In the standardised approach to multi-sensor validation presented here for the first time, LST data sets obtained with state-of-the-art retrieval algorithms from several sensors (AATSR, GOES, MODIS, and SEVIRI) are matched spatially and temporally with multiple years of in situ data from globally distributed stations representing various land cover types in a consistent manner. Commonality of treatment is essential for the approach: all satellite data sets are projected to the same spatial grid, and transformed into a common harmonized format, thereby allowing comparison with in situ data to be undertaken with the same methodology and data processing. The large data base of standardised satellite LST provided by the European Space Agency’s GlobTemperature project makes previously difficult to perform LST studies and applications more feasible and easier to implement. The satellite data sets are validated over either three or ten years, depending on data availability. Average accuracies over the whole time span are generally within ±2.0 K during night, and within ± 4.0 K during day. Time series analyses over individual stations reveal seasonal cycles. They stem, depending on the station, from surface anisotropy, topography, or heterogeneous land cover. The results demonstrate the maturity of the LST products, but also highlight the need to carefully consider their temporal and spatial properties when using them for scientific purposes

A global dataset of spatiotemporally seamless daily mean land surface temperatures: generation, validation, and analysis

Daily mean land surface temperatures (LSTs) acquired from polar orbiters are crucial for various applications such as global and regional climate change analysis. However, thermal sensors from polar orbiters can only sample the surface effectively with very limited times per day under cloud-free conditions. These limitations have produced a systematic sampling bias (ΔT$_{sb}$) on the daily mean LST (T$_{dm}$) estimated with the traditional method, which uses the averages of clear-sky LST observations directly as the T$_{dm}$. Several methods have been proposed for the estimation of the T$_{dm}$, yet they are becoming less capable of generating spatiotemporally seamless T$_{dm}$ across the globe. Based on MODIS and reanalysis data, here we propose an improved annual and diurnal temperature cycle-based framework (termed the IADTC framework) to generate global spatiotemporally seamless T$_{dm}$ products ranging from 2003 to 2019 (named the GADTC products). The validations show that the IADTC framework reduces the systematic ΔT$_{sb}$ significantly. When validated only with in situ data, the assessments show that the mean absolute errors (MAEs) of the IADTC framework are 1.4 and 1.1 K for SURFRAD and FLUXNET data, respectively, and the mean biases are both close to zero. Direct comparisons between the GADTC products and in situ measurements indicate that the MAEs are 2.2 and 3.1 K for the SURFRAD and FLUXNET datasets, respectively, and the mean biases are −1.6 and −1.5 K for these two datasets, respectively. By taking the GADTC products as references, further analysis reveals that the T$_{dm}$ estimated with the traditional averaging method yields a positive systematic ΔT$_{sb}$ of greater than 2.0 K in low-latitude and midlatitude regions while of a relatively small value in high-latitude regions. Although the global-mean LST trend (2003 to 2019) calculated with the traditional method and the IADTC framework is relatively close (both between 0.025 to 0.029 K yr$^{–1}$), regional discrepancies in LST trend do occur – the pixel-based MAE in LST trend between these two methods reaches 0.012 K yr$^{–1}$. We consider the IADTC framework can guide the further optimization of T$_{dm}$ estimation across the globe, and the generated GADTC products should be valuable in various applications such as global and regional warming analysis

Validation of Collection 6 MODIS land surface temperature product using in situ measurements

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important physical quantity at the land-atmosphere interface. Since 2016 the Collection 6 (C6) MODIS LST product is publicly available, which includes three refinements over bare soil surfaces compared to the Collection 5 (C5) MODIS LST product. To encourage the use of the C6 MODIS LST product in a wide range of applications, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the C6 MODIS LST product. In this study, we validated the C6 MODIS LST product using temperature-based method over various land cover types, including grasslands, croplands, cropland/natural vegetation mosaic, open shrublands, woody savannas, and barren/sparsely vegetated. In situ measurements were collected from various sites under different atmospheric and surface conditions, including seven SURFRAD sites (BND, TBL, DRA, FPK, GCM, PSU, and SXF) in the United States, three KIT sites (EVO, KAL, and GBB) in Portugal and Namibia, and three HiWATER sites (GBZ, HZZ, and HMZ) in China. The spatial representativeness of the in situ measurements at each site was separately evaluated during daytime and nighttime using all available clear-sky ASTER LST products at 90m spatial resolution. Only six sites during daytime are selected as sufficiently homogeneous sites despite the usually high spatial thermal heterogeneity, whereas during nighttime most sites can be considered to be thermally homogeneous and have similar LST and air temperature. The C6 MODIS LST product was validated using in situ measurements from the selected homogeneous sites during daytime and nighttime: except for the GBB site, large RMSE values (> 2 K) were obtained during daytime. However, if only satellite LST with a high spatial thermal homogeneity on the MODIS pixel scale are used for LST validation, the best daytime accuracy (RMSE<1.3 K) for the C6 MODIS LST product is achieved over the BND and DRA sites. Except for the DRA site, the RMSE values during nighttime are<2 K at the selected homogeneous sites. Furthermore, the accuracy of the C6 MODIS LST product was compared with that of the C5 MODIS LST product during nighttime at the selected homogeneous sites. Except for the GBB site, there are only small differences (< 0.4 K) between the RMSE values for the C5 and C6 MODIS LST products

Extension of PAR Models under Local All-Sky Conditions to Different Climatic Zones

Four models for predicting Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) were obtained through MultiLinear Regression (MLR) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on 10 meteorological indices previously selected from a feature selection algorithm. One model was developed for all sky conditions and the other three for clear, partial, and overcast skies, using a sky classification based on the clearness index (kt). The experimental data were recorded in Burgos (Spain) at ten-minute intervals over 23 months between 2019 and 2021. Fits above 0.97 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values below 7.5% were observed. The models developed for clear and overcast sky conditions yielded better results. Application of the models to the seven experimental ground stations that constitute the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) located in different Köppen climatic zones of the USA yielded fitted values higher than 0.98 and RMSE values less than 11% in all cases regardless of the sky type.This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, grant number RTI2018-098900-B-I00, and Consejería de Empleo e Industria, Junta de Castilla y León, grant number INVESTUN/19/BU-0004

Validation and calibration of models to estimate photosynthetically active radiation considering different time scales and sky conditions

Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) is a fundamental parameter for developing plant productivity models. Nevertheless, instrumentation for measuring PAR and to record it is scarce at conventional meteorological stations. Several procedures have therefore been proposed for PAR estimation. In this work, 21 previously published analytical models that correlate PAR with easily available meteorological parameters are collected. Although longer time scales were considered in the original publications, a minute range was applied in this work to calibrate the PAR models. In total, more than 10 million input records were gathered from the SURFRAD station network from a 10-year long time series with data frequencies recorded every 1 min. The models were calibrated both globally, using data from all stations and locally, with data from each station. After calibration, the models were validated for minute, hourly and daily data, obtaining low fitting errors at the different stations in all cases, both when using the globally calibrated models and with the models calibrated for each location. Although the PAR results in general improved for locally calibrated models, the use of local models is not justified, since the global models presented offered very satisfactory PAR results for the different climatic conditions where the meteorological stations are located. Thus, PAR estimation model should then be selected, solely considering the meteorological variables available at the specific location. When applying the globally calibrated models to input data classified according to sky conditions (from clear to overcast), the PAR models continued to perform satisfactorily, although the error statistics of some models for overcast skies worsened.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the Spanish Ministry of Science & Innovation under the I + D+i state program “Challenges Research Projects” (Ref. RTI2018-098900-B-I00)

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

The NASA developed Land Information System (LIS) is the Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) operational Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) combining real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model data, vegetation, terrain, and soil parameters with the community Noah land surface model, along with other hydrology module options, to generate profile analyses of global soil moisture, soil temperature, and other important land surface characteristics. (1) A range of satellite data products and surface observations used to generate the land analysis products (2) Global, 1/4 deg spatial resolution (3) Model analysis generated at 3 hours. AFWA recognizes the importance of operational benchmarking and uncertainty characterization for land surface modeling and is developing standard methods, software, and metrics to verify and/or validate LIS output products. To facilitate this and other needs for land analysis activities at AFWA, the Model Evaluation Toolkit (MET) -- a joint product of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Developmental Testbed Center (NCAR DTC), AFWA, and the user community -- and the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT), developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), have been adapted to operational benchmarking needs of AFWA's land characterization activities