Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease. an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention

Risk of postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery—development and validation of a risk score and effect of acute kidney injury on survival:observational cohort study

Funding: This study was funded by Tenovus Tayside, Chief Scientist Office, Scotland and a travelling fellowship from the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Glasgow. The funders had no role in the study design; collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data; writing of the report; or the decision to submit the article for publication. The researchers are independent of the funders.Non peer reviewedPublisher PD

Risk assessment in patients with an acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction

ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. While the survival after acute STEMI has considerably improved, mortality rate still remains high, especially in high-risk patients. Survival after acute STEMI is influenced by clinical characteristics such as age as well as the presence of comorbidities. However, during emergency care increasing access to tools such as the electrocardiogram, chest x-ray and echocardiography can provide additional information helping to further risk stratify patients. In the invasive setting, this can also include coronary angiography, invasive hemodynamic recordings and angiographic assessments of coronary flow and myocardial perfusion. We outline the common investigations used in STEMI and their role in risk assessment of patients with an acute STEMI

Prognostic significance of right bundle branch block in patients with acute inferior myocardial infarction

There is little information available concerning the influence of right bundle branch block (RBBB) on the prognosis of patients with inferior myocardial infarction (MI). In this study we evaluated the influence of RBBB on the short-term prognosis of patients with inferior MI. Our study subjects were 1,265 hospitalized patients with Q wave MI. Patients were divided into 4 groups based on the presence or absence of RBBB and on the location of the infarction. RBBB was classified into 4 categories according to the timing of its appearance and its duration as new permanent, transient, old and age indeterminate. In-hospital death and pulmonary congestion were observed more frequently in patients with RBBB than in those without RBBB. Moreover, in inferior MI as in anterior MI, in-hospital death and pulmonary congestion occurred more frequently in new permanent RBBB patients than in patients with other types of RBBB. Multivariate regression analysis reveals that new permanent RBBB was a strong independent predictor for an adverse short-term prognosis in patients with inferior MI, as well as in patients with anterior MI. New permanent RBBB during inferior MI is a strong independent predictor for increased in-hospital mortality, regardless of the infarction location.</p

Risk prediction to inform surveillance of chronic kidney disease in the US Healthcare Safety Net: a cohort study.

BackgroundThe capacity of electronic health record (EHR) data to guide targeted surveillance in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. We sought to leverage EHR data for predicting risk of progressing from CKD to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) to help inform surveillance of CKD among vulnerable patients from the healthcare safety-net.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults (n = 28,779) with CKD who received care within 2 regional safety-net health systems during 1996-2009 in the Western United States. The primary outcomes were progression to ESRD and death as ascertained by linkage with United States Renal Data System and Social Security Administration Death Master files, respectively, through September 29, 2011. We evaluated the performance of 3 models which included demographic, comorbidity and laboratory data to predict progression of CKD to ESRD in conditions commonly targeted for disease management (hypertension, diabetes, chronic viral diseases and severe CKD) using traditional discriminatory criteria (AUC) and recent criteria intended to guide population health management strategies.ResultsOverall, 1730 persons progressed to end-stage renal disease and 7628 died during median follow-up of 6.6 years. Performance of risk models incorporating common EHR variables was highest in hypertension, intermediate in diabetes and chronic viral diseases, and lowest in severe CKD. Surveillance of persons who were in the highest quintile of ESRD risk yielded 83-94 %, 74-95 %, and 75-82 % of cases who progressed to ESRD among patients with hypertension, diabetes and chronic viral diseases, respectively. Similar surveillance yielded 42-71 % of ESRD cases among those with severe CKD. Discrimination in all conditions was universally high (AUC ≥0.80) when evaluated using traditional criteria.ConclusionsRecently proposed discriminatory criteria account for varying risk distribution and when applied to common clinical conditions may help to inform surveillance of CKD in diverse populations

Phenotype standardization for statin-induced myotoxicity

Statins are widely used lipid-lowering drugs that are effective in reducing cardiovascular disease risk. Although they are generally well tolerated, they can cause muscle toxicity, which can lead to severe rhabdomyolysis. Research in this area has been hampered to some extent by the lack of standardized nomenclature and phenotypic definitions. We have used numerical and descriptive classifications and developed an algorithm to define statin-related myotoxicity phenotypes, including myalgia, myopathy, rhabdomyolysis, and necrotizing autoimmune myopathy.</p

Predicting erythropoietin resistance in hemodialysis patients with type 2 diabetes

&lt;p&gt;Background: Resistance to ESAs (erythropoietin stimulating agents) is highly prevalent in hemodialysis patients with diabetes and associated with an increased mortality. The aim of this study was to identify predictors for ESA resistance and to develop a prediction model for the risk stratification in these patients.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods: A post-hoc analysis was conducted of the 4D study, including 1015 patients with type 2 diabetes undergoing hemodialysis. Determinants of ESA resistance were identified by univariate logistic regression analyses. Subsequently, multivariate models were performed with stepwise inclusion of significant predictors from clinical parameters, routine laboratory and specific biomarkers.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: In the model restricted to clinical parameters, male sex, shorter dialysis vintage, lower BMI, history of CHF, use of ACE-inhibitors and a higher heart rate were identified as independent predictors of ESA resistance. In regard to routine laboratory markers, lower albumin, lower iron saturation, higher creatinine and higher potassium levels were independently associated with ESA resistance. With respect to specific biomarkers, higher ADMA and CRP levels as well as lower Osteocalcin levels were predictors of ESA resistance.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: Easily obtainable clinical parameters and routine laboratory parameters can predict ESA resistance in diabetic hemodialysis patients with good discrimination. Specific biomarkers did not meaningfully further improve the risk prediction of ESA resistance. Routinely assessed data can be used in clinical practice to stratify patients according to the risk of ESA resistance, which may help to assign appropriate treatment strategies.&lt;/p&gt