Assessment of the potential impacts of plant traits across environments by combining global sensitivity analysis and dynamic modeling in wheat

A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites x 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates x 2 N fertilization) and $CO_2$ (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait x environment x management landscape ($\sim$ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter x environment x management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identifcation of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures. This work has been submitted to PLoS On

Addressing Uncertainty in TMDLS: Short Course at Arkansas Water Resources Center 2001 Annual Conference

Management of a critical natural resource like water requires information on the status of that resource. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported in the 1998 National Water Quality Inventory that more than 291,000 miles of assessed rivers and streams and 5 million acres of lakes do not meet State water quality standards. This inventory represents a compilation of State assessments of 840,000 miles of rivers and 17.4 million acres of lakes; a 22 percent increase in river miles and 4 percent increase in lake acres over their 1996 reports. Siltation, bacteria, nutrients and metals were the leading pollutants of impaired waters, according to EPA. The sources of these pollutants were presumed to be runoff from agricultural lands and urban areas. EPA suggests that the majority of Americans-over 218 million-live within ten miles of a polluted waterbody. This seems to contradict the recent proclamations of the success of the Clean Water Act, the Nation\u27s water pollution control law. EPA also claims that, while water quality is still threatened in the US, the amount of water safe for fishing and swimming has doubled since 1972, and that the number of people served by sewage treatment plants has more than doubled

ERIGrid Holistic Test Description for Validating Cyber-Physical Energy Systems

Smart energy solutions aim to modify and optimise the operation of existing energy infrastructure. Such cyber-physical technology must be mature before deployment to the actual infrastructure, and competitive solutions will have to be compliant to standards still under development. Achieving this technology readiness and harmonisation requires reproducible experiments and appropriately realistic testing environments. Such testbeds for multi-domain cyber-physical experiments are complex in and of themselves. This work addresses a method for the scoping and design of experiments where both testbed and solution each require detailed expertise. This empirical work first revisited present test description approaches, developed a newdescription method for cyber-physical energy systems testing, and matured it by means of user involvement. The new Holistic Test Description (HTD) method facilitates the conception, deconstruction and reproduction of complex experimental designs in the domains of cyber-physical energy systems. This work develops the background and motivation, offers a guideline and examples to the proposed approach, and summarises experience from three years of its application.This work received funding in the European Community’s Horizon 2020 Program (H2020/2014–2020) under project “ERIGrid” (Grant Agreement No. 654113)

New challenges in lake and river monitoring

Freshwater ecosystems are highly dynamic and change on time-scales that range from a few hours to several months. The development of models that simulate these processes is often hampered by the lack of sufficient data to parameterize the processes and validate the models. In this article, I review some of the challenges posed by this lack of information and suggest ways in which they can be met by using automatic monitoring systems. One of these studies is the project tempQsim (EVK1-CT2002-00112) funded by the European Commission. In this project, detailed field and model analyses have been performed at eight catchment study sites in south and south-east Europe. A number of perceptual models for the study sites have been established, and results are being used to improve selected catchment models and provide a more adequate description of pollution dynamics. Results from the extensive field studies and model tests are now being used to derive recommendations for more tailored monitoring concepts in highly dynamic, but ‘data scarce’ environments, such as are frequently found in Mediterranean river basins. The author includes implications of the EU Water Framework Directive on monitoring methods

An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014

2011 Strategic roadmap for Australian research infrastructure

The 2011 Roadmap articulates the priority research infrastructure areas of a national scale (capability areas) to further develop Australia’s research capacity and improve innovation and research outcomes over the next five to ten years. The capability areas have been identified through considered analysis of input provided by stakeholders, in conjunction with specialist advice from Expert Working Groups   It is intended the Strategic Framework will provide a high-level policy framework, which will include principles to guide the development of policy advice and the design of programs related to the funding of research infrastructure by the Australian Government. Roadmapping has been identified in the Strategic Framework Discussion Paper as the most appropriate prioritisation mechanism for national, collaborative research infrastructure. The strategic identification of Capability areas through a consultative roadmapping process was also validated in the report of the 2010 NCRIS Evaluation. The 2011 Roadmap is primarily concerned with medium to large-scale research infrastructure. However, any landmark infrastructure (typically involving an investment in excess of $100 million over five years from the Australian Government) requirements identified in this process will be noted. NRIC has also developed a ‘Process to identify and prioritise Australian Government landmark research infrastructure investments’ which is currently under consideration by the government as part of broader deliberations relating to research infrastructure. NRIC will have strategic oversight of the development of the 2011 Roadmap as part of its overall policy view of research infrastructure

Space Station Human Factors Research Review. Volume 4: Inhouse Advanced Development and Research

A variety of human factors studies related to space station design are presented. Subjects include proximity operations and window design, spatial perceptual issues regarding displays, image management, workload research, spatial cognition, virtual interface, fault diagnosis in orbital refueling, and error tolerance and procedure aids

The transformation of earth-system observations into information of socio-economic value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value