THE EFFECT OF SOCIAL REPUTATION ON RETENTION: DESIGNING A SOCIAL REAL-TIME DELPHI PLATFORM

Forecasting with high uncertainty and long-time horizons still challenges researchers and practitioners. A widely adopted method in knowledge sharing and forecasting based on experts is the Delphi method and its offspring, the Real-Time Delphi. While the traditional Delphi method already is intensely investigated, the Real-Time Delphi is still evolving, and no dominant design has been found yet. A problem arising in both variants of the Delphi method, are high drop-out rates between rounds. This paper applies a design science research approach to motivate the need for social design elements from literature and derives design principles for Real-Time Delphi platform. Based on the design, we implement and evaluate a prototype in an online experiment as well as an IT artifact in a field study. We find significant supporting evidence, that (the promise of) positive social reputation increases commitment, and therefore subsequent platform engagement of our Real-Time Delphi survey. Our findings, therefore, contribute valuable design knowledge for Real-Time Delphi platforms. Moreover, we provide advice on how to raise retention in knowledge sharing systems

Study on National Skills Outlook(2018)

This study aims to conduct Korea measuring the qualitative level of labor supply, that is, National Skills Outlook by the Korea Research Institute for Vocational Education & Training(KRIVET). This study can contribute to large-scale skills forecasting, as it attempts to identify both quantitative and qualitative data on needed skills, and the sample includes the employer survey with all industries. Moreover, this study can be a highly significant inquiry, as it identifies qualitative forecasting data on skills required in the future by applying the real-time Delphi technique. We used the real-time Delphi method for qualitative forecasting of skill demand. In general, the method is known to produce reliable results by collecting expert opinions and combining those opinions into group consensus, thereby avoiding any negative psychological phenomena(bandwagon effect, group noise, halo-effect, etc.) that may occur during face-to-face interviews with experts(Baek, 2012). Thus, this technique involves collecting and aggregating opinions of experts and organizational members and deriving group judgments. It is therefore mainly used for forecasting, and it is particularly used widely for qualitative forecasting(Tessaring, 1998; Wilson, 2001.) The Delphi method was integrated into the abovementioned NCVER model. A Delphi survey is usually conducted through mail by using written documents. Specifically, a prepared questionnaire is sent to a panel of selected experts. When questionnaires are collected, the researcher edits and summarizes the results and returns the revised questionnaire to each respondent. To realize the advantages of online survey, the real-time Delphi method was used to survey the employers in this study. ..

The Future of Customs in the EU 2040: Results from a Real-time Delphi survey

A Real-time Delphi survey was carried out within the project The Future of Customs in the EU 2040: a foresight study performed by the European Commission Joint Research Centre on behalf of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD). The Real-time Delphi survey method is a structured expert survey methodology used to gather opinions on different possible developments in the long-term future on a given topic. This type of surveys is a useful way to elicit, collect and synthesise the opinions of a large group of experts and to give ideas to start a debate. In the survey the participants were asked to react to 16 statements formulated as if they were taking place in the year 2040. They cover different issues related to customs, such as the role of customs, trade, digital and technological development, human resources, and corruption and fraud.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Polic

uma abordagem Design Science Research

Afonso, C. M., Serra, M., Almeida, C. M., & Antonio, N. (2021). Desenvolvimento de questionários de Delphi em Tempo Real no LimeSurvey: uma abordagem Design Science Research. In A. Rocha, R. Goncalves, F. G. Penalvo, & J. Martins (Eds.), Proceedings of CISTI 2021 - 16th Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies (pp. 1-6). (Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies, CISTI). IEEE Computer Society Press. https://doi.org/10.23919/CISTI52073.2021.9476554The use of the Delphi method is based due to its consistent establishment throughout the years in the research area. Currently, the maturity associated to the existent information systems and technologies are responsible for the evolution of the classic Delph method into a Real-Time Delphi method (RTD). It basically reduces to one the characteristic formal rounds associated to the classical method and shortens the time required. These new features lead to a growing interest and use of Real-Time Delphi questionnaires by researchers and professionals. Although this is a recurrent trend, it is not possible to identify the existence of a non-proprietary online survey creation solution with features to allow generating and applying Real-Time Delphi questionnaires. In this context and to respond to a research need it was necessary to develop a technological adaptation of the software LimeSurvey, an open-source online questionnaire management system to be able to create three RealTime Delphi questionnaires. These three questionnaires will allow the conception of a pairing model amidst food and beverage. To achieve the proposed objective, we used a literature review related to the Real-Time Delphi subject and the methodology of Design Science Research which will result an artifact, in this case an adaptation of LimeSurvey for the creation of Real-Time Delphi questionnaires. The results from this work are an adaptation and utilization of the open-source code from the LimeSurvey software and the creation of three RTD questionnaires for research purposes in the creation of a pairing model amidst food and wine.authorsversionpublishe

Collection and integration of local knowledge and experience through a collective spatial analysis

This article discusses the convenience of adopting an approach of Collective Spatial Analysis in the P/PGIS processes, with the aim of improving the collection and integration of knowledge and local expertise in decision-making, mainly in the fields of planning and adopting territorial policies. Based on empirical evidence, as a result of the review of scientific articles from the Web of Science database, in which it is displayed how the knowledge and experience of people involved in decision-making supported by P/PGIS are collected and used, a prototype of a WEB-GSDSS application has been developed. This prototype allows a group of people to participate anonymously, in an asynchronous and distributed way, in a decision-making process to locate goods, services, or events through the convergence of their views. Via this application, two case studies for planning services in districts of Ecuador and Italy were carried out. Early results suggest that in P/PGIS local and external actors contribute their knowledge and experience to generate information that afterwards is integrated and analysed in the decision-making process. On the other hand, in a Collective Spatial Analysis, these actors analyse and generate information in conjunction with their knowledge and experience during the process of decision-making. We conclude that, although the Collective Spatial Analysis approach presented is in a subjective and initial stage, it does drive improvements in the collection and integration of knowledge and local experience, foremost among them is an interdisciplinary geo-consensusPeer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Study on National Skills Outlook

The objective of this study in 2017 is to not only conduct a research on the ‘National Skill Forecast Survey’ and the ‘KRIVET National Skill Forecasting Model’ but also present detail outlook results. This research is the 8th year project of the 10-year plan. Based on the results of the 2016 survey and the 2017 survey, which had been modified for improvement from the analysis of the survey results of employers from 2012 to 2015, we would like to collate basic information on demand for skillsets in depth. In conclusion, the key to the 2017 study is to investigate the current skill distribution more precisely and to predict any changes in the future skill distribution. First, the current skill distribution has been identified as a basic vocational skill that is crucial in the real practice through the survey of existing employers. Next, in order to identify any potential changes in future skill distribution, we performed a real-time Delphi survey in this study. The real-time Delphi survey which evaluates the importance of basic occupational skills important to the future has the merit of extracting and synthesizing opinions and judgments of experts (personnel and labor representatives) by presenting the average value or response status of the respondents as a whole, and drawing collective consensus. Furthermore, the FGI survey on the outlook results using the real-time Delphi survey was conducted. The key is to draw reliable forecast results. Therefore, the FGI survey was also conducted as part of the review process to confirm the reliability or robustness of the outcome of this study. The FGI survey was carried out for the first time this year, and it helped exploring demands for skilled workers in both the current and the future periods as well as any specific, exemplary cases. Finally, the results of the real-time Delphi survey on the basic occupational skills that are believed to be vital in the future were compared to the FGI survey and AHP survey. Through this process, we will both review the outcome of the prospect and present the result of our qualitative analysis of the phenomenon, cause, and problem of skill mismatch. Particularly, through a comprehensive review of the results of various research methods (real-time Delphi, AHP, and FGI) on demand for then skilled labour, this study will present a more realistic skill outlook result by summarizing and analyzing the information of the current skilled and future skilled manpower. Using the combined data of the National Skill Forecast Survey collected from the service industry in 2016 and the manufacturing industry in 2017, the following forecasts for the future demand for skills are prepared. To summarize KRIVET national skill forecast results, Korean firms believe that 'Problem Solving Skill (or referred to as PSS in this paper)’ is the most important ability and predict it to remain so in the next 10 years. Yet, they also have identified the PSS as the skill that needs the most improvement. The PSS is particulary deemed as important by the companies as it is considered as the core job competency required to perform tasks. Therefore, companies or governments may need select specific skills such as the PSS as the priority targets of their skills development programs. Additionally, occupational ethics and interpersonal skills such as ‘work ethics’, ‘community ethics’, and ‘teamwork skills’ have been recognized as important skills both now and in the future. This study is meaningful in a way that the forecast result confirms the necessary skillsets that will require political/administrative intervention in the future. However, the result from the National Skill Forecast was deduced and presented for the first time this year, requiring reviews on a various level in the future in order to increase its reliability and the possibility of its adoption as a policy. The results of this study will provide empirical data on future changes in skills in Korea a decade later. We may expect that this will then serve as the basic data for the policy to solve any structural discrepancy in supply and demand of skilled labour, review employment rate, and decrease youth unemployment rate

Citizen participation and awareness raising in coastal protected areas. A case study from Italy

In this chapter, part of the research carried out within the SECOA project (www.projectsecoa.eu) is presented. Attention is devoted to methods and tools used for supporting the participatory process in a case of environmental conflict related to the definition of boundaries of a coastal protected area: the Costa Teatina National Park, in Abruzzo, central Italy. The Costa Teatina National Park was established by the National Law 93/2001. Its territory includes eight southern Abruzzo municipalities and covers a stretch of coastline of approximately 60 km. It is a coastal protected area, which incorporates land but not sea, characterized by the presence of important cultural and natural assets. The Italian Ministry of Environment (1998) defines the area as “winding and varied, with the alternation of sandy and gravel beaches, cliffs, river mouths, areas rich in indigenous vegetation and cultivated lands (mainly olives), dunes and forest trees”. The park boundaries were not defined by the law that set it up, and their determination has been postponed to a later stage of territorial negotiation that has not ended yet (Montanari and Staniscia, 2013). The definition of the park boundaries, indeed, has resulted in an intense debate between citizens and interest groups who believe that environmental protection does not conflict with economic growth and those who believe the opposite. That is why the process is still in act and a solution is far from being reached. In this chapter, the methodology and the tools used to involve the general public in active participation in decision making and to support institutional players in conflict mitigation will be presented. Those tools have also proven to be effective in the dissemination of information and transfer of knowledge. Results obtained through the use of each instrument will not be presented here since this falls outside the purpose of the present essay. The chapter is organized as follows: in the first section the importance of the theme of citizen participation in decision making will be highlighted; the focus will be on participation in the processes of ICZM, relevant to the management of coastal protected areas. In the second section a review of the most commonly used methods in social research is presented; advantages and disadvantages of each of them will be highlighted. In particular, the history and the evolution of the Delphi method and its derivatives are discussed; focus will be on the dissemination value of the logic underlying such iterative methods. In the third section the tools used in the case of the Costa Teatina National Park will be presented; strengths and weaknesses will be highlighted and proposals for their improvement will be advanced. Discussion and conclusions follow

Developing a medication adherence technologies repository: proposed structure and protocol for an online real-time Delphi study

Introduction An online interactive repository of available medication adherence technologies may facilitate their selection and adoption by different stakeholders. Developing a repository is among the main objectives of the European Network to Advance Best practices and technoLogy on medication adherencE (ENABLE) COST Action (CA19132). However, meeting the needs of diverse stakeholders requires careful consideration of the repository structure. Methods and analysis A real-time online Delphi study by stakeholders from 39 countries with research, practice, policy, patient representation and technology development backgrounds will be conducted. Eleven ENABLE members from 9 European countries formed an interdisciplinary steering committee to develop the repository structure, prepare study protocol and perform it. Definitions of medication adherence technologies and their attributes were developed iteratively through literature review, discussions within the steering committee and ENABLE Action members, following ontology development recommendations. Three domains (product and provider information (D1), medication adherence descriptors (D2) and evaluation and implementation (D3)) branching in 13 attribute groups are proposed: product and provider information, target use scenarios, target health conditions, medication regimen, medication adherence management components, monitoring/measurement methods and targets, intervention modes of delivery, target behaviour determinants, behaviour change techniques, intervention providers, intervention settings, quality indicators and implementation indicators. Stakeholders will evaluate the proposed definition and attributes’ relevance, clarity and completeness and have multiple opportunities to reconsider their evaluations based on aggregated feedback in real-time. Data collection will stop when the predetermined response rate will be achieved. We will quantify agreement and perform analyses of process indicators on the whole sample and per stakeholder group. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for the COST ENABLE activities was granted by the Malaga Regional Research Ethics Committee. The Delphi protocol was considered compliant regarding data protection and security by the Data Protection Officer from University of Basel. Findings from the Delphi study will form the basis for the ENABLE repository structure and related activities

Methods for anticipating governance breakdown and violent conflict

In this paper, authors Sarah Bressan, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Dominic Seefeldt present the evolution and state of the art of both quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods that can be applied to help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighbourhood. In the quantitative section, they describe the different phases of conflict forecasting in political science and outline which methodological gaps EU-LISTCO’s quantitative sub-national prediction tool will address to forecast tipping points for violent conflict and governance breakdown. The qualitative section explains EU-LISTCO’s scenario-based foresight methodology for identifying potential tipping points. After comparing both approaches, the authors discuss opportunities for methodological advancements across the boundaries of quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight, as well as how they can inform the design of strategic policy options