Rare Fault Detection by Possibilistic Reasoning

Kernel based neural networks with probabilistic reasoning are suitable for many practical applications. But influence of data set sizes let the probabilistic approach fail in case of small data amounts. Possibilistic reasoning avoids this drawback because it is independent of class size. The fundamentals of possibilistic reasoning are derived from a probability/possibility consistency principle that gives regard to relations. It is demonstrated that the concept of possibilistic reasoning is advantageous for the problem of rare fault detection, which is a property desired for semiconductor manufacturing quality control

Dynamic estimations of metabolic fluxes with constraint-based models and possibility theory

Living cells can be modelled by successively imposing known constraints that limit their behaviour, such as mass balances, thermodynamic laws or enzyme capacities. The resulting constraint-based models enclose all the functional states that the modelled cells may exhibit. Then, predictions can be obtained from the models in two main ways: adding experimental data to determine the state of cells at given conditions (MFA) or invoking an assumption of evolved optimal behaviour (FBA). Both MFA and FBA predictions are typically performed at steady state. However, it is easy to take extracellular dynamics into account. This work explores the benefits of using possibility theory to get these dynamic predictions. It will be shown that the possibilistic methods (a) provide rich estimates for time-varying fluxes and metabolite concentrations, (b) account for uncertainty and data scarcity, and (c) give predictions relaxing the optimality assumption of FBA. On the other hand, these methods could serve as basis for monitoring and fault detection systems in industrial bioprocesses.This research has been partially supported by the Spanish Government MINECO (1st and 3rd authors are grateful to grant CICYT DPI2011-28112-C04-01, and A. Sala is grateful to grant DPI2011-27845-C02-01).Llaneras Estrada, F.; Sala, A.; Picó Marco, JA. (2012). Dynamic estimations of metabolic fluxes with constraint-based models and possibility theory. Journal of Process Control. 22(10):1946-1955. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jprocont.2012.09.00119461955221

Proceedings of the Second Joint Technology Workshop on Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic, volume 2

Documented here are papers presented at the Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Workshop sponsored by NASA and the University of Texas, Houston. Topics addressed included adaptive systems, learning algorithms, network architectures, vision, robotics, neurobiological connections, speech recognition and synthesis, fuzzy set theory and application, control and dynamics processing, space applications, fuzzy logic and neural network computers, approximate reasoning, and multiobject decision making

An Evidential Evolving Prognostic Approach and its Application to PRONOSTIA's Data Streams

International audienceThe research activity in the PHM community is in full bloom and many efforts are being made to develop more realistic and reliable methodologies. However, there still exist very few real-world applications due to the complexity of the systems of interest. Nonlinear dynamical systems identification and behavior prediction are difficult problems encountered in prognosis. The difficulty in switching from theory to practice can partially be explained by the existence of different kinds of uncertainty at each step of the implementation that must be taken into account with the appropriate tools. In this paper, we propose an evolving multi-modeling approach for the detection, the adaptation and the combination of local models in order to analyze complex systems behavior. It relies on belief functions in order to take into consideration the uncertainty related to the available data describing the system as well as the uncertainty generated by the nonlinearity of the system. The information of doubt explicitly represented in the belief functions framework is exploited to properly segment the data and take into account the uncertainty related to the transitions between the operating regions. The proposed algorithm is validated on a data provided by PRONOSTIA platform

Interval and Possibilistic Methods for Constraint-Based Metabolic Models

This thesis is devoted to the study and application of constraint-based metabolic models. The objective was to find simple ways to handle the difficulties that arise in practice due to uncertainty (knowledge is incomplete, there is a lack of measurable variables, and those available are imprecise). With this purpose, tools have been developed to model, analyse, estimate and predict the metabolic behaviour of cells. The document is structured in three parts. First, related literature is revised and summarised. This results in a unified perspective of several methodologies that use constraint-based representations of the cell metabolism. Three outstanding methods are discussed in detail, network-based pathways analysis (NPA), metabolic flux analysis (MFA), and flux balance analysis (FBA). Four types of metabolic pathways are also compared to clarify the subtle differences among them. The second part is devoted to interval methods for constraint-based models. The first contribution is an interval approach to traditional MFA, particularly useful to estimate the metabolic fluxes under data scarcity (FS-MFA). These estimates provide insight on the internal state of cells, which determines the behaviour they exhibit at given conditions. The second contribution is a procedure for monitoring the metabolic fluxes during a cultivation process that uses FS-MFA to handle uncertainty. The third part of the document addresses the use of possibility theory. The main contribution is a possibilistic framework to (a) evaluate model and measurements consistency, and (b) perform flux estimations (Poss-MFA). It combines flexibility on the assumptions and computational efficiency. Poss-MFA is also applied to monitoring fluxes and metabolite concentrations during a cultivation, information of great use for fault-detection and control of industrial processes. Afterwards, the FBA problem is addressed.Llaneras Estrada, F. (2011). Interval and Possibilistic Methods for Constraint-Based Metabolic Models [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/10528Palanci

Proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic, volume 2

Papers presented at the Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Workshop sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and cosponsored by the University of Houston, Clear Lake, held 1-3 Jun. 1992 at the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas are included. During the three days approximately 50 papers were presented. Technical topics addressed included adaptive systems; learning algorithms; network architectures; vision; robotics; neurobiological connections; speech recognition and synthesis; fuzzy set theory and application, control and dynamics processing; space applications; fuzzy logic and neural network computers; approximate reasoning; and multiobject decision making

Evolution of security engineering artifacts: a state of the art survey

Security is an important quality aspect of modern open software systems. However, it is challenging to keep such systems secure because of evolution. Security evolution can only be managed adequately if it is considered for all artifacts throughout the software development lifecycle. This article provides state of the art on the evolution of security engineering artifacts. The article covers the state of the art on evolution of security requirements, security architectures, secure code, security tests, security models, and security risks as well as security monitoring. For each of these artifacts the authors give an overview of evolution and security aspects and discuss the state of the art on its security evolution in detail. Based on this comprehensive survey, they summarize key issues and discuss directions of future research

Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis for Homeland Security

Providing a defensible basis for allocating resources for critical infrastructure and key resource protection is an important and challenging problem. Investments can be made in countermeasures that improve the security and hardness of a potential target exposed to a security hazard, deterrence measures to decrease the likeliness of a security event, and capabilities to mitigate human, economic, and other types of losses following an incident. Multiple threat types must be considered, spanning everything from natural hazards, industrial accidents, and human-caused security threats. In addition, investment decisions can be made at multiple levels of abstraction and leadership, from tactical decisions for real-time protection of assets to operational and strategic decisions affecting individual assets and assets comprising a regions or sector. The objective of this research is to develop a probabilistic risk analysis methodology for critical asset protection, called Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis, or CAPRA, that supports operational and strategic resource allocation decisions at any level of leadership or system abstraction. The CAPRA methodology consists of six analysis phases: scenario identification, consequence and severity assessment, overall vulnerability assessment, threat probability assessment, actionable risk assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. The results from the first four phases of CAPRA combine in the fifth phase to produce actionable risk information that informs decision makers on where to focus attention for cost-effective risk reduction. If the risk is determined to be unacceptable and potentially mitigable, the sixth phase offers methods for conducting a probabilistic benefit-cost analysis of alternative risk mitigation strategies. Several case studies are provided to demonstrate the methodology, including an asset-level analysis that leverages systems reliability analysis techniques and a regional-level portfolio analysis that leverages techniques from approximate reasoning. The main achievements of this research are three-fold. First, this research develops methods for security risk analysis that specifically accommodates the dynamic behavior of intelligent adversaries, to include their tendency to shift attention toward attractive targets and to seek opportunities to exploit defender ignorance of plausible targets and attack modes to achieve surprise. Second, this research develops and employs an expanded definition of vulnerability that takes into account all system weaknesses from initiating event to consequence. That is, this research formally extends the meaning of vulnerability beyond security weaknesses to include target fragility, the intrinsic resistance to loss of the systems comprising the asset, and weaknesses in response and recovery capabilities. Third, this research demonstrates that useful actionable risk information can be produced even with limited information supporting precise estimates of model parameters