Panel on future challenges in modeling methodology

This panel paper presents the views of six researchers and practitioners of simulation modeling. Collectively we attempt to address a range of key future challenges to modeling methodology. It is hoped that the views of this paper, and the presentations made by the panelists at the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference will raise awareness and stimulate further discussion on the future of modeling methodology in areas such as modeling problems in business applications, human factors and geographically dispersed networks; rapid model development and maintenance; legacy modeling approaches; markup languages; virtual interactive process design and simulation; standards; and Grid computing

Aging concrete structures: a review of mechanics and concepts

The safe and cost-efficient management of our built infrastructure is a challenging task considering the expected service life of at least 50 years. In spite of time-dependent changes in material properties, deterioration processes and changing demand by society, the structures need to satisfy many technical requirements related to serviceability, durability, sustainability and bearing capacity. This review paper summarizes the challenges associated with the safe design and maintenance of aging concrete structures and gives an overview of some concepts and approaches that are being developed to address these challenges

DynamO: A free O(N) general event-driven molecular-dynamics simulator

Molecular-dynamics algorithms for systems of particles interacting through discrete or "hard" potentials are fundamentally different to the methods for continuous or "soft" potential systems. Although many software packages have been developed for continuous potential systems, software for discrete potential systems based on event-driven algorithms are relatively scarce and specialized. We present DynamO, a general event-driven simulation package which displays the optimal O(N) asymptotic scaling of the computational cost with the number of particles N, rather than the O(N log(N)) scaling found in most standard algorithms. DynamO provides reference implementations of the best available event-driven algorithms. These techniques allow the rapid simulation of both complex and large (>10^6 particles) systems for long times. The performance of the program is benchmarked for elastic hard sphere systems, homogeneous cooling and sheared inelastic hard spheres, and equilibrium Lennard-Jones fluids. This software and its documentation are distributed under the GNU General Public license and can be freely downloaded from http://marcusbannerman.co.uk/dynamo

Modeling singular mineralization processes due to fluid pressure fluctuations

Mineralization in the Earth's crust can be regarded as a singular process resulting in large amounts of mass accumulation and element enrichment over short time or space scales. The elemental concentrations modeled by fractals and multifractals show self-similarity and scale-invariant properties. We take the view that fluid-pressure variations in response to earthquakes or fault rupture are primarily responsible for changes in solubility and trigger transient physical and chemical variations in ore-forming fluids that enhance the mineralization process. Based on this general concept, we investigated mineral precipitation processes driven by rapid fluid pressure reductions by coupling mineralization to a cellular automaton model to reveal the nonlinear mechanism of the orogenic gold mineralization process using simulation. In the model, fluid pressure can increase to the rock failure condition, which was set as lithostatic pressure at a depth of 10 km (270 MPa), due to either porosity reduction or dehydration reactions. Rapid drops in pressure resulting from fault rupture or local hydrofracture may induce repeated gold precipitation. The geochemical patterns generated by the model evolve from depletion to enrichment patterns, and from spatially random to spatially clustered structures quantified by multifractal models and geostatistics. Results show how metal elements self-organize to form high metal concentration patterns displaying self-similarity and scale-invariance. These transitions are attributed to the growth and coalescence of sub-networks with different fluid pressures up to the percolation threshold, resulting in a wide range of fluid pressure reductions and gold precipitation in the form of clusters. The results suggest that cyclic evolution of fluid pressure and its effects on gold precipitation systems can effectively mimic the repeated mineralization superposition process, and generate complex geochemical patterns characterized by a multifractal model. The nonlinear behavior exhibits scale-invariance and self-organized critical threshold, where mineral phase separations result from fluid pressure reductions associated with fault failure

Knowledge-based simulation using object-oriented programming

Simulations have become a powerful mechanism for understanding and modeling complex phenomena. Their results have had substantial impact on a broad range of decisions in the military, government, and industry. Because of this, new techniques are continually being explored and developed to make them even more useful, understandable, extendable, and efficient. One such area of research is the application of the knowledge-based methods of artificial intelligence (AI) to the computer simulation field. The goal of knowledge-based simulation is to facilitate building simulations of greatly increased power and comprehensibility by making use of deeper knowledge about the behavior of the simulated world. One technique for representing and manipulating knowledge that has been enhanced by the AI community is object-oriented programming. Using this technique, the entities of a discrete-event simulation can be viewed as objects in an object-oriented formulation. Knowledge can be factual (i.e., attributes of an entity) or behavioral (i.e., how the entity is to behave in certain circumstances). Rome Laboratory's Advanced Simulation Environment (RASE) was developed as a research vehicle to provide an enhanced simulation development environment for building more intelligent, interactive, flexible, and realistic simulations. This capability will support current and future battle management research and provide a test of the object-oriented paradigm for use in large scale military applications

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org