Random convex programs for distributed multi-agent consensus

We consider convex optimization problems with N randomly drawn convex constraints. Previous work has shown that the tails of the distribution of the probability that the optimal solution subject to these constraints will violate the next random constraint, can be bounded by a binomial distribution. In this paper we extend these results to the violation probability of convex combinations of optimal solutions of optimization problems with random constraints and different cost objectives. This extension has interesting applications to distributed multi-agent consensus algorithms in which the decision vectors of the agents are subject to random constraints and the agents' goal is to achieve consensus on a common value of the decision vector that satisfies the constraints. We give explicit bounds on the tails of the probability that the agents' decision vectors at an arbitrary iteration of the consensus protocol violate further constraint realizations. In a numerical experiment we apply these results to a model predictive control problem in which the agents aim to achieve consensus on a control sequence subject to random terminal constraints

On the Sample Size of Random Convex Programs with Structured Dependence on the Uncertainty (Extended Version)

The "scenario approach" provides an intuitive method to address chance constrained problems arising in control design for uncertain systems. It addresses these problems by replacing the chance constraint with a finite number of sampled constraints (scenarios). The sample size critically depends on Helly's dimension, a quantity always upper bounded by the number of decision variables. However, this standard bound can lead to computationally expensive programs whose solutions are conservative in terms of cost and violation probability. We derive improved bounds of Helly's dimension for problems where the chance constraint has certain structural properties. The improved bounds lower the number of scenarios required for these problems, leading both to improved objective value and reduced computational complexity. Our results are generally applicable to Randomized Model Predictive Control of chance constrained linear systems with additive uncertainty and affine disturbance feedback. The efficacy of the proposed bound is demonstrated on an inventory management example.Comment: Accepted for publication at Automatic

Model Predictive Control of stochastic LPV Systems via Random Convex Programs

This paper considers the problem of stabilization of stochastic Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) discrete time systems in the presence of convex state and input constraints. By using a randomization approach, a convex finite horizon optimal control problem is derived, even when the dependence of the system's matrices on the time-varying parameters is nonlinear. This convex problem can be solved efficiently, and its solution is a-priori guaranteed to be probabilistically robust, up to a user-defined probability level p. Then, a novel receding horizon control strategy that involves, at each time step, the solution of a finite-horizon scenario-based control problem, is proposed. It is shown that the resulting closed loop scheme drives the state to a terminal set in finite time, either deterministically, or with probability no less than p. The features of the approach are shown through a numerical exampl

Optimization under Uncertainty with Applications to Multi-Agent Coordination

In this thesis several approaches for optimization and decision-making under uncertainty with a strong focus on applications in multi-agent systems are considered. These approaches are chance constrained optimization, random convex programs, and partially observable Markov decision processes

A scenario approach for non-convex control design

Randomized optimization is an established tool for control design with modulated robustness. While for uncertain convex programs there exist randomized approaches with efficient sampling, this is not the case for non-convex problems. Approaches based on statistical learning theory are applicable to non-convex problems, but they usually are conservative in terms of performance and require high sample complexity to achieve the desired probabilistic guarantees. In this paper, we derive a novel scenario approach for a wide class of random non-convex programs, with a sample complexity similar to that of uncertain convex programs and with probabilistic guarantees that hold not only for the optimal solution of the scenario program, but for all feasible solutions inside a set of a-priori chosen complexity. We also address measure-theoretic issues for uncertain convex and non-convex programs. Among the family of non-convex control- design problems that can be addressed via randomization, we apply our scenario approach to randomized Model Predictive Control for chance-constrained nonlinear control-affine systems.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro

Direct Data-Driven Portfolio Optimization with Guaranteed Shortfall Probability

This paper proposes a novel methodology for optimal allocation of a portfolio of risky financial assets. Most existing methods that aim at compromising between portfolio performance (e.g., expected return) and its risk (e.g., volatility or shortfall probability) need some statistical model of the asset returns. This means that: ({\em i}) one needs to make rather strong assumptions on the market for eliciting a return distribution, and ({\em ii}) the parameters of this distribution need be somehow estimated, which is quite a critical aspect, since optimal portfolios will then depend on the way parameters are estimated. Here we propose instead a direct, data-driven, route to portfolio optimization that avoids both of the mentioned issues: the optimal portfolios are computed directly from historical data, by solving a sequence of convex optimization problems (typically, linear programs). Much more importantly, the resulting portfolios are theoretically backed by a guarantee that their expected shortfall is no larger than an a-priori assigned level. This result is here obtained assuming efficiency of the market, under no hypotheses on the shape of the joint distribution of the asset returns, which can remain unknown and need not be estimate

Sequential Randomized Algorithms for Convex Optimization in the Presence of Uncertainty

In this paper, we propose new sequential randomized algorithms for convex optimization problems in the presence of uncertainty. A rigorous analysis of the theoretical properties of the solutions obtained by these algorithms, for full constraint satisfaction and partial constraint satisfaction, respectively, is given. The proposed methods allow to enlarge the applicability of the existing randomized methods to real-world applications involving a large number of design variables. Since the proposed approach does not provide a priori bounds on the sample complexity, extensive numerical simulations, dealing with an application to hard-disk drive servo design, are provided. These simulations testify the goodness of the proposed solution.Comment: 18 pages, Submitted for publication to IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro

Stochastic model predictive control of LPV systems via scenario optimization

A stochastic receding-horizon control approach for constrained Linear Parameter Varying discrete-time systems is proposed in this paper. It is assumed that the time-varying parameters have stochastic nature and that the system's matrices are bounded but otherwise arbitrary nonlinear functions of these parameters. No specific assumption on the statistics of the parameters is required. By using a randomization approach, a scenario-based finite-horizon optimal control problem is formulated, where only a finite number M of sampled predicted parameter trajectories (‘scenarios') are considered. This problem is convex and its solution is a priori guaranteed to be probabilistically robust, up to a user-defined probability level p. The p level is linked to M by an analytic relationship, which establishes a tradeoff between computational complexity and robustness of the solution. Then, a receding horizon strategy is presented, involving the iterated solution of a scenario-based finite-horizon control problem at each time step. Our key result is to show that the state trajectories of the controlled system reach a terminal positively invariant set in finite time, either deterministically, or with probability no smaller than p. The features of the approach are illustrated by a numerical example

Robust Model Predictive Control via Scenario Optimization

This paper discusses a novel probabilistic approach for the design of robust model predictive control (MPC) laws for discrete-time linear systems affected by parametric uncertainty and additive disturbances. The proposed technique is based on the iterated solution, at each step, of a finite-horizon optimal control problem (FHOCP) that takes into account a suitable number of randomly extracted scenarios of uncertainty and disturbances, followed by a specific command selection rule implemented in a receding horizon fashion. The scenario FHOCP is always convex, also when the uncertain parameters and disturbance belong to non-convex sets, and irrespective of how the model uncertainty influences the system's matrices. Moreover, the computational complexity of the proposed approach does not depend on the uncertainty/disturbance dimensions, and scales quadratically with the control horizon. The main result in this paper is related to the analysis of the closed loop system under receding-horizon implementation of the scenario FHOCP, and essentially states that the devised control law guarantees constraint satisfaction at each step with some a-priori assigned probability p, while the system's state reaches the target set either asymptotically, or in finite time with probability at least p. The proposed method may be a valid alternative when other existing techniques, either deterministic or stochastic, are not directly usable due to excessive conservatism or to numerical intractability caused by lack of convexity of the robust or chance-constrained optimization problem.Comment: This manuscript is a preprint of a paper accepted for publication in the IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, with DOI: 10.1109/TAC.2012.2203054, and is subject to IEEE copyright. The copy of record will be available at http://ieeexplore.ieee.or