Financial Free in the Retirement Period by Saving on Stocks

This study aims to calculate the minimum estimate of saving stocks per month to be financially free after 30 years of investing in stocks. The research method used is a quantitative method. The results showed that the estimated minimum funds to get passive income of 5 million, which is equivalent for the next 30 years, is IDR 930,936 per month

Pomiar ryzyka w kalkulacji opłacalności inwestycji rzeczowych

In the paper a model of non-financial investment profitability calculation is presented. It is based on the concept of quantile risk measures and a real option valuation. Application of Monte Carlo simulation allows to receive probability distribution of Net Present Value (NPV) and implement risk measures like Cash Flow at Risk (CFaR), Net Present Value at Risk (NPVaR) or Expected Shortfall (ES) in relation to NPV (ES (NPV)). The main contribution of the article is implementation of ES (NPV) that shows the average of worst losses regarding NPV. ES (NPV) informs the investors what the worst result of the project may be.W artykule przedstawiono model kalkulacji opłacalności inwestycji rzeczowych. Jest on oparty na koncepcji kwantylowych miar ryzyka i wycenie opcji realnych. Zastosowanie symulacji Monte Carlo pozwala otrzymać rozkład prawdopodobieństwa wartości zaktualizowanej netto (Net Present Value – NPV) i wdrożyć miary ryzyka, takie jak przepływy pieniężne narażone na ryzyko (Cash Flow at Risk – CFaR), wartość zaktualizowana netto narażona na ryzyko (Net Present Value at Risk – NPVaR) czy oczekiwana strata (Expected Shortfall – ES) w stosunku do NPV – ES (NPV). Głównym wkładem artykułu jest implementacja ES (NPV), która pokazuje średnią najgorszych strat względem NPV. ES (NPV) informuje inwestorów, jaki może być najgorszy wynik projektu

Implementing Circular Economy Techniques for the Optimal Management of Recyclable Solid Waste Using the M-GRCT Decision Support Model

[EN] This article analyzes the implementation of a circular economy model for the management of reusable solid waste in the Colombian municipalities of Arbelaez (province of Cundinamarca) and Tibasosa (province of Boyaca). The analysis is conducted using M-GRCT, a circular economy decision support model for the design of recyclable waste management systems in low-income municipalities. The model allows for performing calculations on a set of two scenarios integrating a sociocultural dynamics assessment-this being a characteristic feature of this type of municipalities. Results show that both the linear and circular models of waste management are economically viable. However, the particular conditions of each municipality, the tariff system, the number of subscribers and the variations in costs and inflation in each municipality affect the results of economic viability. In addition, the waste production scale and the volumes of recoverable waste also affect the results. All these factors are reflected in the scenarios analyzed. In terms of economic viability, the circular model presents better results in Arbelaez, while in the municipality of Tibasosa, the best results are obtained with a linear economy approach.Vargas-Terranova, C.; Rodrigo-Ilarri, J.; Rodrigo-Clavero, M.; Parra-Saad, A. (2022). Implementing Circular Economy Techniques for the Optimal Management of Recyclable Solid Waste Using the M-GRCT Decision Support Model. Applied Sciences. 12(16):1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12168072117121

Integral analysis of environmental and economic performance of combined agricultural intensification & bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region

Agricultural intensification is a key strategy to help meet increasing demand for food and bioenergy. It has the potential to reduce direct and indirect land use change (LUC) and associated environmental impacts while contributing to a favorable economic performance of the agriculture sector. We conduct an integral analysis of environmental and economic impacts of LUC from projected agricultural intensification and bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region in 2030. We compare three agricultural intensification scenarios (low, medium, high) and a reference scenario, which assumes a business-as-usual development of agricultural production. The results show that with current inefficient management or with only very little intensification between 26% and 93% of the existing natural vegetation areas will be converted to agricultural land to meet increasing food demand. This results in the loss of biodiversity by 53% and increased water consumption by 111%. In the medium and high scenarios, the intensification allows meeting increased food demand within current agricultural lands and even generating surplus land which can be used to produce bioenergy crops. This results in the reduction of biodiversity loss by 8-13% with medium and high levels of intensification compared to the situation in 2018. Also, a positive economic performance is observed, stemming primarily from intensification of cattle production and additional energy crop production. Despite increasing irrigation efficiency in more intensive production systems, the water demand for perennial crops and cattle production over the dry season increases significantly, thus sustainable management practices that target efficient water use are needed. Agricultural productivity improvements, particularly for cattle production, are crucial for reducing the pressure on natural areas from increasing demand for both food products and bioenergy. This implies targeted investments in the agricultural sector and integrated planning of land use. Our results showed that production intensification in the Orinoquia region is a mechanism that could reduce the pressure on natural land and its associated environmental and economic impacts

Analyzing Business Feasibility: A Comprehensive Study Using Hamdi's Method

The current study examines the efficacy of Hamdi's method, which utilizes the gold value method (GVM) and the gold index (GI) to calculate business feasibility studies on the financial aspect. The GVM serves as an alternative to the net present value (NPV) method, while the GI acts as a substitute for the profitability index (PI). The objective is to investigate whether the feasibility decision results of Hamdi's method align with the conventional approach, which uses NPV and PI, widely applied in academia. To this end, the researchers conducted a case study on Mr. Win's tofu small industrial business in Pekanbaru. The findings suggest that the feasibility decision outcome using GVM aligns with that of the NPV calculation, and the feasibility decision outcome using GI aligns with that of the PI calculation. As such, Hamdi's method presents a viable option for assessing the feasibility of a business on the financial aspect and contributes to the existing calculation method in this domai

Розробка концептуальної моделі аналізу динаміки цінності проєкту в умовах невизначеності

A conceptual model for analyzing the dynamics of the value of the project, achieved as a result of engineering, under conditions of uncertainty has been developed. In the methodological context, the proposed approach is based on an array of isovalues, each of which corresponds to its own level of optimism in forecasting the cash flow for the project. With the increase in the efficiency of the project due to engineering, the entire array of iso-value lines’ changes its geometrical position, moving further from the origin (in the four-dimensional space "time-benefit-cost-risk"). The proposed model includes three stages. At the first stage, input information is collected and the corresponding analysis is initiated. The result of the second stage is a multivariate cash flow forecast and calculation of the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and its changes for each scenario. The third stage provides the calculation of the expected BCR and its change, an assessment of the risk of making an erroneous decision and changing this risk as a result of the engineering session. The model makes it possible to calculate the achieved proportion of the static and dynamic vectors of change in the value of the project, which is one of the key manifestations of the scientific novelty of the work. In the example considered, the share of the dynamic vector of growth in the value of the project was found to be 35.47 %. The model has an environmental property - the assessment of the success of value engineering under conditions of uncertainty is carried out on the basis of the annual total benefits and the annual total costs throughout the project cycle. Thus, the analysis takes into account the impact of the project on the environment, which is reflected in the risk assessment. The given case testifies to the feasibility of applying the model in the practice of engineering the value of construction projects.Разработана концептуальная модель анализа динамики ценности проекта, достигнутой вследствие инжиниринга, в условиях неопределенности. В методологическом контексте предлагаемый подход опирается на массив изоценностей, каждая из которых соответствует своему уровню оптимизма прогноза движения денежных средств по проекту. При повышении эффективности проекта вследствие инжиниринга, весь массив линий изоценности меняет свое геометрическое место, перемещаясь дальше от начала координат (в четырёхмерном пространстве «время-выгоды-затраты-риски»). Предлагаемая модель включает три этапа. На первом этапе осуществляется сбор входной информации та инициирование соответствующего анализа. Результатом второго этапа является многовариантный прогноз денежных потоков и расчет коэффициента «выгоды-затраты» (BCR) и его изменения для каждого сценария. Третий этап обеспечивает расчет ожидаемого BCR и его изменения, оценка риска принятия ошибочного решения и изменения такого риска вследствие проведенной сессии инжиниринга. Модель дает возможность рассчитать достигнутую пропорцию статического и динамического векторов изменения ценности проекта, что является одним из ключевых проявлений научной новизны работы. В рассмотренном примере доля динамического вектора роста ценности проекта выявилась равной 35,47 %. Модель имеет природоохранное свойство – оценка успешности инжиниринга ценности в условиях неопределенности осуществляется на основе ежегодных суммарных выгод и ежегодных суммарных затрат на протяжении проектного цикла. Таким образом, анализом учитывается нагрузка проекта на окружающую среду, что отражается на оценке риска. Приведенный кейс свидетельствует о целесообразности применения модели в практике инжиниринга ценности проектов строительстваРозроблено концептуальну модель аналізу динаміки цінності проєкту, досягнутої внаслідок інжинірингу, в умовах невизначеності. У методологічному контексті пропонований підхід ґрунтується на масиві ізоцінностей, кожна з яких відповідає своєму рівню оптимізму щодо прогнозу руху грошових коштів по проєкту. При підвищенні ефективності проєкту внаслідок інжинірингу, весь масив ліній ізоцінності змінює своє геометричне місце, зсуваючись далі від початку координат (у чотиривимірному просторі «час-вигоди-витрати-ризики»). Пропонована модель включає три етапи. На першому етапі здійснюється збір вхідної інформації та ініціювання відповідного аналізу. Результатом другого етапу є багатоваріантний прогноз грошових потоків і розрахунок коефіцієнту «вигоди-витрати» (BCR) та його зміни для кожного сценарію. Третій етап забезпечує обчислення очікуваного BCR та його зміни, оцінку ризику прийняття помилкового рішення та зміни такого ризику внаслідок проведеної сесії інжинірингу. Модель дає можливість розрахувати досягнуту пропорцію статичного і динамічного векторів зміни цінності проєкту, що є одним з ключових проявів наукової новизни роботи. У розглянутому прикладі частка динамічного вектору зростання цінності проєкту виявилась рівною 35,47 %. Модель має природозахисну властивість – оцінка успішності інжинірингу цінності в умовах невизначеності здійснюється на основі щорічних сумарних вигід і щорічних сумарних витрат протягом проєктного циклу. У такий спосіб аналізом враховується очікуване навантаження проєкту на оточуюче середовище, що відбивається і на оцінці ризику. Наведений кейс свідчить про доцільність застосування моделі в практиці інжинірингу цінності проєктів будівництв

How Can One Improve SAW and Max-Min Multi-Criteria Rankings Based on Uncertain Decision Rules?

The paper aims to improve a simple additive weighting method (SAW) and the max-min rule designed for M-DMC (multi-13 criteria decision making under certainty) based on already developed extensions for the Laplace and Wald rules (applied to one-criterion decision making under uncertainty, i.e., 1-DMU). Some evident analogies between scenario-based 1-DMU and M-DMC have been recently revealed in the literature, which gives the possibility to implement necessary amendments in M-DMC procedures, particularly in the multiple solutions case. The suggested modifications consist of applying additional decision tools (for SAW) and using the lexicographic approach (for the max-min rule). Thanks to them, options, treated as equivalent according to original M-DMC procedures, may obtain different ranks in the ranking. Such an improvement facilitates the decision making process. Both modified methods are illustrated by employing an example concerning the ranking creation for UE countries. (original abstract

Avaliação do projeto de investimento: SkyBraga

Projeto de mestrado em Gestão e NegóciosO propósito deste trabalho de mestrado é o de avaliar um projeto de investimento, de forma a concluir sobre a viabilidade financeira do mesmo. Trata-se de um negócio na área da restauração, localizado em Braga, e com previsão de abertura no ano de 2022, mediante o resultado da avaliação. O SkyBraga pretende destacar-se pela sua postura exclusiva, quer no serviço de restaurante, quer no serviço de bar, para servir uma clientela com elevado poder de compra. Para se realizar a avaliação financeira estimam-se fluxos de caixa do projeto – Fluxo de Caixa de Investimento, Fluxo de Caixa de Exploração e Fluxo de Caixa Terminal. De seguida, determina-se o Custo de Capital, envolvendo o cálculo do Custo de Capital Próprio, e Capital Alheio. Os critérios de decisão - Valor Atual Líquido, Taxa Interna de Rendibilidade e Payback Atualizado, - calculados sobre os fluxos estimados, são usados para concluir se o negócio será capaz de gerar valor. Para incorporar a incerteza na avaliação realiza-se uma análise de sensibilidade à taxa do Custo de Capital e ao Fluxo de Caixa Terminal, bem como uma análise ao melhor cenário e ao pior cenário. Pelos resultados obtidos, conclui-se que todos os critérios de decisão dão uma resposta favorável ao avanço do projeto: um VAL positivo, uma TIR superior ao Custo de Capital e um Payback Atualizado dentro do período estabelecido pelos investidores. A análise de sensibilidade considerando um Custo de Capital mais alto e um Fluxo de Caixa Terminal nulo, e a análise de cenários continuam a suportar essa decisão. Mesmo com uma taxa de Custo de Capital superior ou um valor terminal nulo, o VAL do projeto mantém-se positivo. Relativamente à análise de cenários, o VAL do melhor cenário é claramente positivo e por isso sustenta a decisão de investir, já o pior cenário, mesmo registando alguns fluxos de caixa positivos, tem um VAL negativo, o que revela algum risco na tomada de decisão. No entanto, assumindo igual probabilidade dos cenários estimados, a média do VAL continua a ser positiva, o que neste contexto permite também concluir que o SkyBraga será capaz de gerar valor, tal como os critérios de decisão aplicados ao cenário base.The purpose of this master's project is to evaluate an investment project, to conclude on its financial viability. The investment consists in a restaurant/bar, located in Braga, expected to open in 2022, based on the result of the evaluation. SkyBraga intends to stand out for its exclusive posture, both in the restaurant service and in the bar service, to serve an exclusive clientele. To carry out the financial assessment, the project's cash flows are estimated – Investment Cash Flow, Operating Cash Flow and Terminal Cash Flow. Then, the Cost of Capital is determined, involving the computation of the cost of equity, and cost of debt. The decision criteria - Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Updated Payback, - calculated on the estimated flows, are used to conclude whether the business will generate value. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the evaluation, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to the Cost of Capital rate and to the Terminal Cash Flow, as well as an analysis of the best- and worst-case scenarios. The results obtained show that all decision criteria give a favorable response to the acceptance of the project: a positive NPV, an IRR higher than the Cost of Capital and a discounted Payback within the period established by the investors. The sensitivity analysis with a higher Cost of Capital and a Terminal Cash Flow equal to zero, and the analysis of the best- and worst-case scenarios continue to support that decision. Even with a higher Cost of Capital or with a terminal value equal to zero the NPV continues to be positive. Regarding the analysis of the best- and worst-case scenarios, the best-case NPV is clearly positive and therefore supports the decision to invest, while the worst-case scenario, even with some positive cash flows, has a negative NPV, which reveals some risk in the investment decision. However, assuming an equal probability of the estimated scenarios, the average NPV is still positive, and in this context, it also leads to the conclusion that SkyBraga will generate value, just like the decision criteria applied to the base scenario

Lantbrukares underliggande motivationsfaktorer vid investering i åkermark : en studie i Östergötland, Sverige

The area of arable land is decreasing every year as a result of expanding cities or road networks, a fact affecting the farmers’ business possibilities. The farms in Sweden are simultaneously getting fewer but larger in size, the higher survival rate among the larger farms indicating that growing means surviving. Furthermore, the price of arable land in Sweden has drastically increased over the past ten years, with Östergötland being one of the highest priced areas. However, recent literature regarding the acquisition of arable land discusses how theory focusing on monetary values fails to recognise farmers’ behaviour and values. Instead, recent literature suggests that non-pecuniary attributes, along with economic factors, influence farmers’ decision-making in different contexts. The present study was designed to determine the underlying motivational factors of farmers when acquiring arable land. The study contributes to the field by deriving from existing literature, such as the net present value, hedonic pricing and behavioural aspects, and criticizing its inadequacy. By doing so, the present study aims to create a more holistic picture of the matter. The study is based on Means-End Chain theory (MEC), a framework for describing and linking peoples’ values to their behaviour. The Zaltman Metaphor Elicitation Technique (ZMET) was used, a qualitative method previously never applied in this context, providing a new perspective and generating a unique result. The method enabled the farmers themselves to control what aspects were highlighted during the interviews and forced them deeper into their reasoning process. The cause-effect relationships between elements elicited were then coded and illustrated in a Hierarchal Value Map (HVM), constituting the result of present study. The main findings indicate how farmers’ underlying motivational factors cannot be characterized as either financial or non-financial when acquiring arable land. Rather, financial and non-financial factors are in this context closely linked. The most prominent value pronounced during the interviews was “Profitability”, closely followed by “Happiness” and “Well-being”. The interviewed farmers acquired the arable land essentially based on location, to increase farm size and to enable continued operation. These attributes were found to increased revenue and improve efficiency as well as the work situation. Using ZMET in the study was considered vital to assess the respondents’ reasoning processes and thereby the indepth information governing the result. To conclude, the result of the present study shows that there is a complex set of factors that motivates farmers in their decision to acquire arable land.Varje år minskar åkermarksarealen till följd av att städer och vägnät utvidgas, något som påverkar lantbrukares affärsmöjligheter. Samtidigt blir antalet lantbruksföretag i Sverige färre men större i storlek vilket visar på en tydlig överlevnadstrend bland större företag som indikerar att företag som växer är de som överlever. Åkermarkspriset har drastiskt ökat i Sverige under de senaste tio åren, med Östergötland som ett av de områdena med högst priser för åkermark. När lantbruksföretag investerar i ytterligare åkermark krävs en ökad lönsamhet för att klara de höga lån och räntekostnader som följer med investeringen, detta samtidigt som priserna för jordbruksråvaror minskar. Aktuell litteratur inom området föreslår att teorier som utgår från monetära värden misslyckas med att belysa lantbrukares beslutsfattande vid investeringar. Istället föreslås att ideella attribut, tillsammans med monetära värden, påverkar lantbrukares beslutsfattande. Denna studie utformades för att identifiera lantbrukares underliggande motivationsfaktorer vid investering i åkermark. Studien bidrar till forskningen genom att utgå från existerande litteratur beträffande nettonuvärdesberäkning, hedonisk prissättning och beteendevetenskap och kritisera den för dess otillräcklighet inom ämnet. Genom detta bidrar denna studie till att skapa en mer holistisk bild av ämnet. Vidare utgår studien från Means-End Chain (MEC) teorin, ett ramverk för att beskriva och länka samman människors värden och beteenden. Den kvalitativa metoden Zaltman Metaphor Elicitation Technique (ZMET) som vidare tillämpades har tidigare inte använts i denna kontext. Detta medför att studien bidrar med ett nytt perspektiv och genom det ett unikt resultat. Metoden möjliggjorde vidare att lantbrukarna styrde samtalet under intervjun och själva fick belysa vilka aspekter som var viktiga för dem. De identifierade elementen från intervjuerna kodades sedan och illustrerades i en hierarkisk värdekarta (HVM) som följaktligen utgör studiens resultat. Studiens resultat indikerar att underliggande motivationsfaktorer hos lantbrukare inte kan kategoriseras som antingen monetära eller icke-monetära, eftersom de är tätt sammankopplade. Det mest framträdande värdet som nämndes under intervjuerna var “Lönsamhet”, följt av värdena “Lycka” och “Välbefinnande”. De intervjuade lantbrukarna valde framförallt att investera i ytterligare åkermark baserat på dess läge, fortsatt tillväxt och för att fortsatt kunna bedriva verksamheten - förknippat med ökade intäkter och effektivitet såväl som en förbättrad arbetssituation. Användandet av ZMET anses ha varit avgörande för studiens resultat eftersom metoden tillgängliggjorde en ökad förståelse för respondenternas resonemang och genom det en unik, djupgående information i frågan. Sammanfattningsvis tyder resultaten från studien på att det finns en komplex uppsättning av faktorer som påverkar och motiverar lantbrukare vid deras beslut att investera i åkermark