Analyzing Granger causality in climate data with time series classification methods

Attribution studies in climate science aim for scientifically ascertaining the influence of climatic variations on natural or anthropogenic factors. Many of those studies adopt the concept of Granger causality to infer statistical cause-effect relationships, while utilizing traditional autoregressive models. In this article, we investigate the potential of state-of-the-art time series classification techniques to enhance causal inference in climate science. We conduct a comparative experimental study of different types of algorithms on a large test suite that comprises a unique collection of datasets from the area of climate-vegetation dynamics. The results indicate that specialized time series classification methods are able to improve existing inference procedures. Substantial differences are observed among the methods that were tested

Temporal graph mining and distributed processing

With the recent growth of social media platforms and the human desire to interact with the digital world a lot of human-human and human-device interaction data is getting generated every second. With the boom of the Internet of Things (IoT) devices, a lot of device-device interactions are also now on the rise. All these interactions are nothing but a representation of how the underlying network is connecting different entities over time. These interactions when modeled as an interaction network presents a lot of unique opportunities to uncover interesting patterns and to understand the dynamics of the network. Understanding the dynamics of the network is very important because it encapsulates the way we communicate, socialize, consume information and get influenced. To this end, in this PhD thesis, we focus on analyzing an interaction network to understand how the underlying network is being used. We define interaction network as a sequence of time-stamped interactions E over edges of a static graph G=(V, E). Interaction networks can be used to model many real-world networks for example, in a social network or a communication network, each interaction over an edge represents an interaction between two users, e.g., emailing, making a call, re-tweeting, or in case of the financial network an interaction between two accounts to represent a transaction. We analyze interaction network under two settings. In the first setting, we study interaction network under a sliding window model. We assume a node could pass information to other nodes if they are connected to them using edges present in a time window. In this model, we study how the importance or centrality of a node evolves over time. In the second setting, we put additional constraints on how information flows between nodes. We assume a node could pass information to other nodes only if there is a temporal path between them. To restrict the length of the temporal paths we consider a time window in this approach as well. We apply this model to solve the time-constrained influence maximization problem. By analyzing the interaction network data under our model we find the top-k most influential nodes. We test our model both on human-human interaction using social network data as well as on location-location interaction using location-based social network(LBSNs) data. In the same setting, we also mine temporal cyclic paths to understand the communication patterns in a network. Temporal cycles have many applications and appear naturally in communication networks where one person posts a message and after a while reacts to a thread of reactions from peers on the post. In financial networks, on the other hand, the presence of a temporal cycle could be indicative of certain types of fraud. We provide efficient algorithms for all our analysis and test their efficiency and effectiveness on real-world data. Finally, given that many of the algorithms we study have huge computational demands, we also studied distributed graph processing algorithms. An important aspect of distributed graph processing is to correctly partition the graph data between different machine. A lot of research has been done on efficient graph partitioning strategies but there is no one good partitioning strategy for all kind of graphs and algorithms. Choosing the best partitioning strategy is nontrivial and is mostly a trial and error exercise. To address this problem we provide a cost model based approach to give a better understanding of how a given partitioning strategy is performing for a given graph and algorithm.Con el reciente crecimiento de las redes sociales y el deseo humano de interactuar con el mundo digital, una gran cantidad de datos de interacción humano-a-humano o humano-a-dispositivo se generan cada segundo. Con el auge de los dispositivos IoT, las interacciones dispositivo-a-dispositivo también están en alza. Todas estas interacciones no son más que una representación de como la red subyacente conecta distintas entidades en el tiempo. Modelar estas interacciones en forma de red de interacciones presenta una gran cantidad de oportunidades únicas para descubrir patrones interesantes y entender la dinamicidad de la red. Entender la dinamicidad de la red es clave ya que encapsula la forma en la que nos comunicamos, socializamos, consumimos información y somos influenciados. Para ello, en esta tesis doctoral, nos centramos en analizar una red de interacciones para entender como la red subyacente es usada. Definimos una red de interacciones como una sequencia de interacciones grabadas en el tiempo E sobre aristas de un grafo estático G=(V, E). Las redes de interacción se pueden usar para modelar gran cantidad de aplicaciones reales, por ejemplo en una red social o de comunicaciones cada interacción sobre una arista representa una interacción entre dos usuarios (correo electrónico, llamada, retweet), o en el caso de una red financiera una interacción entre dos cuentas para representar una transacción. Analizamos las redes de interacción bajo múltiples escenarios. En el primero, estudiamos las redes de interacción bajo un modelo de ventana deslizante. Asumimos que un nodo puede mandar información a otros nodos si estan conectados utilizando aristas presentes en una ventana temporal. En este modelo, estudiamos como la importancia o centralidad de un nodo evoluciona en el tiempo. En el segundo escenario añadimos restricciones adicionales respecto como la información fluye entre nodos. Asumimos que un nodo puede mandar información a otros nodos solo si existe un camino temporal entre ellos. Para restringir la longitud de los caminos temporales también asumimos una ventana temporal. Aplicamos este modelo para resolver este problema de maximización de influencia restringido temporalmente. Analizando los datos de la red de interacción bajo nuestro modelo intentamos descubrir los k nodos más influyentes. Examinamos nuestro modelo en interacciones humano-a-humano, usando datos de redes sociales, como en ubicación-a-ubicación usando datos de redes sociales basades en localización (LBSNs). En el mismo escenario también minamos camínos cíclicos temporales para entender los patrones de comunicación en una red. Existen múltiples aplicaciones para cíclos temporales y aparecen naturalmente en redes de comunicación donde una persona envía un mensaje y después de un tiempo reacciona a una cadena de reacciones de compañeros en el mensaje. En redes financieras, por otro lado, la presencia de un ciclo temporal puede indicar ciertos tipos de fraude. Proponemos algoritmos eficientes para todos nuestros análisis y evaluamos su eficiencia y efectividad en datos reales. Finalmente, dado que muchos de los algoritmos estudiados tienen una gran demanda computacional, también estudiamos los algoritmos de procesado distribuido de grafos. Un aspecto importante de procesado distribuido de grafos es el de correctamente particionar los datos del grafo entre distintas máquinas. Gran cantidad de investigación se ha realizado en estrategias para particionar eficientemente un grafo, pero no existe un particionamento bueno para todos los tipos de grafos y algoritmos. Escoger la mejor estrategia de partición no es trivial y es mayoritariamente un ejercicio de prueba y error. Con tal de abordar este problema, proporcionamos un modelo de costes para dar un mejor entendimiento en como una estrategia de particionamiento actúa dado un grafo y un algoritmo

Temporal graph mining and distributed processing

Cotutela Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya i Université Libre de BruxellesWith the recent growth of social media platforms and the human desire to interact with the digital world a lot of human-human and human-device interaction data is getting generated every second. With the boom of the Internet of Things (IoT) devices, a lot of device-device interactions are also now on the rise. All these interactions are nothing but a representation of how the underlying network is connecting different entities over time. These interactions when modeled as an interaction network presents a lot of unique opportunities to uncover interesting patterns and to understand the dynamics of the network. Understanding the dynamics of the network is very important because it encapsulates the way we communicate, socialize, consume information and get influenced. To this end, in this PhD thesis, we focus on analyzing an interaction network to understand how the underlying network is being used. We define interaction network as a sequence of time-stamped interactions E over edges of a static graph G=(V, E). Interaction networks can be used to model many real-world networks for example, in a social network or a communication network, each interaction over an edge represents an interaction between two users, e.g., emailing, making a call, re-tweeting, or in case of the financial network an interaction between two accounts to represent a transaction. We analyze interaction network under two settings. In the first setting, we study interaction network under a sliding window model. We assume a node could pass information to other nodes if they are connected to them using edges present in a time window. In this model, we study how the importance or centrality of a node evolves over time. In the second setting, we put additional constraints on how information flows between nodes. We assume a node could pass information to other nodes only if there is a temporal path between them. To restrict the length of the temporal paths we consider a time window in this approach as well. We apply this model to solve the time-constrained influence maximization problem. By analyzing the interaction network data under our model we find the top-k most influential nodes. We test our model both on human-human interaction using social network data as well as on location-location interaction using location-based social network(LBSNs) data. In the same setting, we also mine temporal cyclic paths to understand the communication patterns in a network. Temporal cycles have many applications and appear naturally in communication networks where one person posts a message and after a while reacts to a thread of reactions from peers on the post. In financial networks, on the other hand, the presence of a temporal cycle could be indicative of certain types of fraud. We provide efficient algorithms for all our analysis and test their efficiency and effectiveness on real-world data. Finally, given that many of the algorithms we study have huge computational demands, we also studied distributed graph processing algorithms. An important aspect of distributed graph processing is to correctly partition the graph data between different machine. A lot of research has been done on efficient graph partitioning strategies but there is no one good partitioning strategy for all kind of graphs and algorithms. Choosing the best partitioning strategy is nontrivial and is mostly a trial and error exercise. To address this problem we provide a cost model based approach to give a better understanding of how a given partitioning strategy is performing for a given graph and algorithm.Con el reciente crecimiento de las redes sociales y el deseo humano de interactuar con el mundo digital, una gran cantidad de datos de interacción humano-a-humano o humano-a-dispositivo se generan cada segundo. Con el auge de los dispositivos IoT, las interacciones dispositivo-a-dispositivo también están en alza. Todas estas interacciones no son más que una representación de como la red subyacente conecta distintas entidades en el tiempo. Modelar estas interacciones en forma de red de interacciones presenta una gran cantidad de oportunidades únicas para descubrir patrones interesantes y entender la dinamicidad de la red. Entender la dinamicidad de la red es clave ya que encapsula la forma en la que nos comunicamos, socializamos, consumimos información y somos influenciados. Para ello, en esta tesis doctoral, nos centramos en analizar una red de interacciones para entender como la red subyacente es usada. Definimos una red de interacciones como una sequencia de interacciones grabadas en el tiempo E sobre aristas de un grafo estático G=(V, E). Las redes de interacción se pueden usar para modelar gran cantidad de aplicaciones reales, por ejemplo en una red social o de comunicaciones cada interacción sobre una arista representa una interacción entre dos usuarios (correo electrónico, llamada, retweet), o en el caso de una red financiera una interacción entre dos cuentas para representar una transacción. Analizamos las redes de interacción bajo múltiples escenarios. En el primero, estudiamos las redes de interacción bajo un modelo de ventana deslizante. Asumimos que un nodo puede mandar información a otros nodos si estan conectados utilizando aristas presentes en una ventana temporal. En este modelo, estudiamos como la importancia o centralidad de un nodo evoluciona en el tiempo. En el segundo escenario añadimos restricciones adicionales respecto como la información fluye entre nodos. Asumimos que un nodo puede mandar información a otros nodos solo si existe un camino temporal entre ellos. Para restringir la longitud de los caminos temporales también asumimos una ventana temporal. Aplicamos este modelo para resolver este problema de maximización de influencia restringido temporalmente. Analizando los datos de la red de interacción bajo nuestro modelo intentamos descubrir los k nodos más influyentes. Examinamos nuestro modelo en interacciones humano-a-humano, usando datos de redes sociales, como en ubicación-a-ubicación usando datos de redes sociales basades en localización (LBSNs). En el mismo escenario también minamos camínos cíclicos temporales para entender los patrones de comunicación en una red. Existen múltiples aplicaciones para cíclos temporales y aparecen naturalmente en redes de comunicación donde una persona envía un mensaje y después de un tiempo reacciona a una cadena de reacciones de compañeros en el mensaje. En redes financieras, por otro lado, la presencia de un ciclo temporal puede indicar ciertos tipos de fraude. Proponemos algoritmos eficientes para todos nuestros análisis y evaluamos su eficiencia y efectividad en datos reales. Finalmente, dado que muchos de los algoritmos estudiados tienen una gran demanda computacional, también estudiamos los algoritmos de procesado distribuido de grafos. Un aspecto importante de procesado distribuido de grafos es el de correctamente particionar los datos del grafo entre distintas máquinas. Gran cantidad de investigación se ha realizado en estrategias para particionar eficientemente un grafo, pero no existe un particionamento bueno para todos los tipos de grafos y algoritmos. Escoger la mejor estrategia de partición no es trivial y es mayoritariamente un ejercicio de prueba y error. Con tal de abordar este problema, proporcionamos un modelo de costes para dar un mejor entendimiento en como una estrategia de particionamiento actúa dado un grafo y un algoritmo.Postprint (published version

Políticas de Copyright de Publicações Científicas em Repositórios Institucionais: O Caso do INESC TEC

A progressiva transformação das práticas científicas, impulsionada pelo desenvolvimento das novas Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC), têm possibilitado aumentar o acesso à informação, caminhando gradualmente para uma abertura do ciclo de pesquisa. Isto permitirá resolver a longo prazo uma adversidade que se tem colocado aos investigadores, que passa pela existência de barreiras que limitam as condições de acesso, sejam estas geográficas ou financeiras. Apesar da produção científica ser dominada, maioritariamente, por grandes editoras comerciais, estando sujeita às regras por estas impostas, o Movimento do Acesso Aberto cuja primeira declaração pública, a Declaração de Budapeste (BOAI), é de 2002, vem propor alterações significativas que beneficiam os autores e os leitores. Este Movimento vem a ganhar importância em Portugal desde 2003, com a constituição do primeiro repositório institucional a nível nacional. Os repositórios institucionais surgiram como uma ferramenta de divulgação da produção científica de uma instituição, com o intuito de permitir abrir aos resultados da investigação, quer antes da publicação e do próprio processo de arbitragem (preprint), quer depois (postprint), e, consequentemente, aumentar a visibilidade do trabalho desenvolvido por um investigador e a respetiva instituição. O estudo apresentado, que passou por uma análise das políticas de copyright das publicações científicas mais relevantes do INESC TEC, permitiu não só perceber que as editoras adotam cada vez mais políticas que possibilitam o auto-arquivo das publicações em repositórios institucionais, como também que existe todo um trabalho de sensibilização a percorrer, não só para os investigadores, como para a instituição e toda a sociedade. A produção de um conjunto de recomendações, que passam pela implementação de uma política institucional que incentive o auto-arquivo das publicações desenvolvidas no âmbito institucional no repositório, serve como mote para uma maior valorização da produção científica do INESC TEC.The progressive transformation of scientific practices, driven by the development of new Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), which made it possible to increase access to information, gradually moving towards an opening of the research cycle. This opening makes it possible to resolve, in the long term, the adversity that has been placed on researchers, which involves the existence of barriers that limit access conditions, whether geographical or financial. Although large commercial publishers predominantly dominate scientific production and subject it to the rules imposed by them, the Open Access movement whose first public declaration, the Budapest Declaration (BOAI), was in 2002, proposes significant changes that benefit the authors and the readers. This Movement has gained importance in Portugal since 2003, with the constitution of the first institutional repository at the national level. Institutional repositories have emerged as a tool for disseminating the scientific production of an institution to open the results of the research, both before publication and the preprint process and postprint, increase the visibility of work done by an investigator and his or her institution. The present study, which underwent an analysis of the copyright policies of INESC TEC most relevant scientific publications, allowed not only to realize that publishers are increasingly adopting policies that make it possible to self-archive publications in institutional repositories, all the work of raising awareness, not only for researchers but also for the institution and the whole society. The production of a set of recommendations, which go through the implementation of an institutional policy that encourages the self-archiving of the publications developed in the institutional scope in the repository, serves as a motto for a greater appreciation of the scientific production of INESC TEC

Ensemble learning with discrete classifiers on small devices

Machine learning has become an integral part of everyday life ranging from applications in AI-powered search queries to (partial) autonomous driving. Many of the advances in machine learning and its application have been possible due to increases in computation power, i.e., by reducing manufacturing sizes while maintaining or even increasing energy consumption. However, 2-3 nm manufacturing is within reach, making further miniaturization increasingly difficult while thermal design power limits are simultaneously reached, rendering entire parts of the chip useless for certain computational loads. In this thesis, we investigate discrete classifier ensembles as a resource-efficient alternative that can be deployed to small devices that only require small amounts of energy. Discrete classifiers are classifiers that can be applied -- and oftentimes also trained -- without the need for costly floating-point operations. Hence, they are ideally suited for deployment to small devices with limited resources. The disadvantage of discrete classifiers is that their predictive performance often lacks behind their floating-point siblings. Here, the combination of multiple discrete classifiers into an ensemble can help to improve the predictive performance while still having a manageable resource consumption. This thesis studies discrete classifier ensembles from a theoretical point of view, an algorithmic point of view, and a practical point of view. In the theoretical investigation, the bias-variance decomposition and the double-descent phenomenon are examined. The bias-variance decomposition of the mean-squared error is re-visited and generalized to an arbitrary twice-differentiable loss function, which serves as a guiding tool throughout the thesis. Similarly, the double-descent phenomenon is -- for the first time -- studied comprehensively in the context of tree ensembles and specifically random forests. Contrary to established literature, the experiments in this thesis indicate that there is no double-descent in random forests. While the training of ensembles is well-studied in literature, the deployment to small devices is often neglected. Additionally, the training of ensembles on small devices has not been considered much so far. Hence, the algorithmic part of this thesis focuses on the deployment of discrete classifiers and the training of ensembles on small devices. First, a novel combination of ensemble pruning (i.e., removing classifiers from the ensemble) and ensemble refinement (i.e., re-training of classifiers in the ensemble) is presented, which uses a novel proximal gradient descent algorithm to minimize a combined loss function. The resulting algorithm removes unnecessary classifiers from an already trained ensemble while improving the performance of the remaining classifiers at the same time. Second, this algorithm is extended to the more challenging setting of online learning in which the algorithm receives training examples one by one. The resulting shrub ensembles algorithm allows the training of ensembles in an online fashion while maintaining a strictly bounded memory consumption. It outperforms existing state-of-the-art algorithms under resource constraints and offers competitive performance in the general case. Last, this thesis studies the deployment of decision tree ensembles to small devices by optimizing their memory layout. The key insight here is that decision trees have a probabilistic inference time because different observations can take different paths from the root to a leaf. By estimating the probability of visiting a particular node in the tree, one can place it favorably in the memory to maximize the caching behavior and, thus, increase its performance without changing the model. Last, several real-world applications of tree ensembles and Binarized Neural Networks are presented

Äriprotsessi tulemuste ennustav ja korralduslik seire

Viimastel aastatel on erinevates valdkondades tegutsevad ettevõtted üles näidanud kasvavat huvi masinõppel põhinevate rakenduste kasutusele võtmiseks. Muuhulgas otsitakse võimalusi oma äriprotsesside efektiivsuse tõstmiseks, kasutades ennustusmudeleid protsesside jooksvaks seireks. Sellised ennustava protsessiseire meetodid võtavad sisendiks sündmuslogi, mis koosneb hulgast lõpetatud äriprotsessi juhtumite sündmusjadadest, ning kasutavad masinõppe algoritme ennustusmudelite treenimiseks. Saadud mudelid teevad ennustusi lõpetamata (antud ajahetkel aktiivsete) protsessijuhtumite jaoks, võttes sisendiks sündmuste jada, mis selle hetkeni on toimunud ning ennustades kas järgmist sündmust antud juhtumis, juhtumi lõppemiseni jäänud aega või instantsi lõpptulemust. Lõpptulemusele orienteeritud ennustava protsessiseire meetodid keskenduvad ennustamisele, kas protsessijuhtum lõppeb soovitud või ebasoovitava lõpptulemusega. Süsteemi kasutaja saab ennustuste alusel otsustada, kas sekkuda antud protsessijuhtumisse või mitte, eesmärgiga ära hoida ebasoovitavat lõpptulemust või leevendada selle negatiivseid tagajärgi. Erinevalt puhtalt ennustavatest süsteemidest annavad korralduslikud protsessiseire meetodid kasutajale ka soovitusi, kas ja kuidas antud juhtumisse sekkuda, eesmärgiga optimeerida mingit kindlat kasulikkusfunktsiooni. Käesolev doktoritöö uurib, kuidas treenida, hinnata ja kasutada ennustusmudeleid äriprotsesside lõpptulemuste ennustava ja korraldusliku seire raames. Doktoritöö pakub välja taksonoomia olemasolevate meetodite klassifitseerimiseks ja võrdleb neid katseliselt. Lisaks pakub töö välja raamistiku tekstiliste andmete kasutamiseks antud ennustusmudelites. Samuti pakume välja ennustuste ajalise stabiilsuse mõiste ning koostame raamistiku korralduslikuks protsessiseireks, mis annab kasutajatele soovitusi, kas protsessi sekkuda või mitte. Katsed näitavad, et väljapakutud lahendused täiendavad olemasolevaid meetodeid ning aitavad kaasa ennustava protsessiseire süsteemide rakendamisele reaalsetes süsteemides.Recent years have witnessed a growing adoption of machine learning techniques for business improvement across various fields. Among other emerging applications, organizations are exploiting opportunities to improve the performance of their business processes by using predictive models for runtime monitoring. Such predictive process monitoring techniques take an event log (a set of completed business process execution traces) as input and use machine learning techniques to train predictive models. At runtime, these techniques predict either the next event, the remaining time, or the final outcome of an ongoing case, given its incomplete execution trace consisting of the events performed up to the present moment in the given case. In particular, a family of techniques called outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring focuses on predicting whether a case will end with a desired or an undesired outcome. The user of the system can use the predictions to decide whether or not to intervene, with the purpose of preventing an undesired outcome or mitigating its negative effects. Prescriptive process monitoring systems go beyond purely predictive ones, by not only generating predictions but also advising the user if and how to intervene in a running case in order to optimize a given utility function. This thesis addresses the question of how to train, evaluate, and use predictive models for predictive and prescriptive monitoring of business process outcomes. The thesis proposes a taxonomy and performs a comparative experimental evaluation of existing techniques in the field. Moreover, we propose a framework for incorporating textual data to predictive monitoring systems. We introduce the notion of temporal stability to evaluate these systems and propose a prescriptive process monitoring framework for advising users if and how to act upon the predictions. The results suggest that the proposed solutions complement the existing techniques and can be useful for practitioners in implementing predictive process monitoring systems in real life