Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

Freeze-drying modeling and monitoring using a new neuro-evolutive technique

This paper is focused on the design of a black-box model for the process of freeze-drying of pharmaceuticals. A new methodology based on a self-adaptive differential evolution scheme is combined with a back-propagation algorithm, as local search method, for the simultaneous structural and parametric optimization of the model represented by a neural network. Using the model of the freeze-drying process, both the temperature and the residual ice content in the product vs. time can be determine off-line, given the values of the operating conditions (the temperature of the heating shelf and the pressure in the drying chamber). This makes possible to understand if the maximum temperature allowed by the product is trespassed and when the sublimation drying is complete, thus providing a valuable tool for recipe design and optimization. Besides, the black box model can be applied to monitor the freeze-drying process: in this case, the measurement of product temperature is used as input variable of the neural network in order to provide in-line estimation of the state of the product (temperature and residual amount of ice). Various examples are presented and discussed, thus pointing out the strength of the too

Mechanical properties of the concrete containing porcelain waste as sand

The demand of concrete have been increases on a daily bases which consume a lot of natural resource such as sand and gravel, there is an immediate need for finding suitable alternative which can be used to replace sand partially with another materials with high propor-tion . Ceramic waste is one of the strongest research areas that include the activity of replacement in all the sides of construction materi-als. This research aims to improve the performance of concrete using ceramic waste, and demonstrate the performance of mechanical properties to the concrete with partial replacement of sand by using waste porcelain. For these, we analyzed the mechanical properties of the concrete such as compressive strength, split tensile and flexural strength, the specimen were measured based on 10% ,20% ,30% ,40%, and 50% weight ratio of replace sand with waste porcelain at different time under water for 7 days , 28 days , 60 days . The optimum consideration were given to mechanical properties of the concrete, at different amount of ceramic waste as sand

Causative factors of construction and demolition waste generation in Iraq Construction Industry

The construction industry has hurt the environment from the waste generated during construction activities. Thus, it calls for serious measures to determine the causative factors of construction waste generated. There are limited studies on factors causing construction, and demolition (C&D) waste generation, and these limited studies only focused on the quantification of construction waste. This study took the opportunity to identify the causative factors for the C&D waste generation and also to determine the risk level of each causal factor, and the most important minimization methods to avoiding generating waste. This study was carried out based on the quantitative approach. A total of 39 factors that causes construction waste generation that has been identified from the literature review were considered which were then clustered into 4 groups. Improved questionnaire surveys by 38 construction experts (consultants, contractors and clients) during the pilot study. The actual survey was conducted with a total of 380 questionnaires, received with a response rate of 83.3%. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software. Ranking analysis using the mean score approach found the five most significant causative factors which are poor site management, poor planning, lack of experience, rework and poor controlling. The result also indicated that the majority of the identified factors having a high-risk level, in addition, the better minimization method is environmental awareness. A structural model was developed based on the 4 groups of causative factors using the Partial Least Squared-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) technique. It was found that the model fits due to the goodness of fit (GOF ≥ 0.36= 0.658, substantial). Based on the outcome of this study, 39 factors were relevant to the generation of construction and demolition waste in Iraq. These groups of factors should be avoided during construction works to reduce the waste generated. The findings of this study are helpful to authorities and stakeholders in formulating laws and regulations. Furthermore, it provides opportunities for future researchers to conduct additional research’s on the factors that contribute to construction waste generation

Scalable Population Synthesis with Deep Generative Modeling

Population synthesis is concerned with the generation of synthetic yet realistic representations of populations. It is a fundamental problem in the modeling of transport where the synthetic populations of micro-agents represent a key input to most agent-based models. In this paper, a new methodological framework for how to 'grow' pools of micro-agents is presented. The model framework adopts a deep generative modeling approach from machine learning based on a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). Compared to the previous population synthesis approaches, including Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), Gibbs sampling and traditional generative models such as Bayesian Networks or Hidden Markov Models, the proposed method allows fitting the full joint distribution for high dimensions. The proposed methodology is compared with a conventional Gibbs sampler and a Bayesian Network by using a large-scale Danish trip diary. It is shown that, while these two methods outperform the VAE in the low-dimensional case, they both suffer from scalability issues when the number of modeled attributes increases. It is also shown that the Gibbs sampler essentially replicates the agents from the original sample when the required conditional distributions are estimated as frequency tables. In contrast, the VAE allows addressing the problem of sampling zeros by generating agents that are virtually different from those in the original data but have similar statistical properties. The presented approach can support agent-based modeling at all levels by enabling richer synthetic populations with smaller zones and more detailed individual characteristics.Comment: 27 pages, 15 figures, 4 table