EVALUATING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE METHODS FOR USE IN KILL CHAIN FUNCTIONS

Current naval operations require sailors to make time-critical and high-stakes decisions based on uncertain situational knowledge in dynamic operational environments. Recent tragic events have resulted in unnecessary casualties, and they represent the decision complexity involved in naval operations and specifically highlight challenges within the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Assess). Kill chain decisions involving the use of weapon systems are a particularly stressing category within the OODA loop—with unexpected threats that are difficult to identify with certainty, shortened decision reaction times, and lethal consequences. An effective kill chain requires the proper setup and employment of shipboard sensors; the identification and classification of unknown contacts; the analysis of contact intentions based on kinematics and intelligence; an awareness of the environment; and decision analysis and resource selection. This project explored the use of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) to improve naval kill chain decisions. The team studied naval kill chain functions and developed specific evaluation criteria for each function for determining the efficacy of specific AI methods. The team identified and studied AI methods and applied the evaluation criteria to map specific AI methods to specific kill chain functions.Civilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCaptain, United States Marine CorpsCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Proactive management of uncertainty to improve scheduling robustness in proces industries

Dinamisme, capacitat de resposta i flexibilitat són característiques essencials en el desenvolupament de la societat actual. Les noves tendències de globalització i els avenços en tecnologies de la informació i comunicació fan que s'evolucioni en un entorn altament dinàmic i incert. La incertesa present en tot procés esdevé un factor crític a l'hora de prendre decisions, així com un repte altament reconegut en l'àrea d'Enginyeria de Sistemes de Procés (PSE). En el context de programació de les operacions, els models de suport a la decisió proposats fins ara, així com també software comercial de planificació i programació d'operacions avançada, es basen generalment en dades estimades, assumint implícitament que el programa d'operacions s'executarà sense desviacions. La reacció davant els efectes de la incertesa en temps d'execució és una pràctica habitual, però no sempre resulta efectiva o factible. L'alternativa és considerar la incertesa de forma proactiva, és a dir, en el moment de prendre decisions, explotant el coneixement disponible en el propi sistema de modelització.Davant aquesta situació es plantegen les següents preguntes: què s'entén per incertesa? Com es pot considerar la incertesa en el problema de programació d'operacions? Què s'entén per robustesa i flexibilitat d'un programa d'operacions? Com es pot millorar aquesta robustesa? Quins beneficis comporta? Aquesta tesi respon a aquestes preguntes en el marc d'anàlisis operacionals en l'àrea de PSE. La incertesa es considera no de la forma reactiva tradicional, sinó amb el desenvolupament de sistemes proactius de suport a la decisió amb l'objectiu d'identificar programes d'operació robustos que serveixin com a referència pel nivell inferior de control de planta, així com també per altres centres en un entorn de cadenes de subministrament. Aquest treball de recerca estableix les bases per formalitzar el concepte de robustesa d'un programa d'operacions de forma sistemàtica. Segons aquest formalisme, els temps d'operació i les ruptures d'equip són considerats inicialment com a principals fonts d'incertesa presents a nivell de programació de la producció. El problema es modelitza mitjançant programació estocàstica, desenvolupant-se finalment un entorn d'optimització basat en simulació que captura les múltiples fonts d'incertesa, així com també estratègies de programació d'operacions reactiva, de forma proactiva. La metodologia desenvolupada en el context de programació de la producció s'estén posteriorment per incloure les operacions de transport en sistemes de múltiples entitats i incertesa en els temps de distribució. Amb aquesta perspectiva més àmplia del nivell d'operació s'estudia la coordinació de les activitats de producció i transport, fins ara centrada en nivells estratègic o tàctic. L'estudi final considera l'efecte de la incertesa en la demanda en les decisions de programació de la producció a curt termini. El problema s'analitza des del punt de vista de gestió del risc, i s'avaluen diferents mesures per controlar l'eficiència del sistema en un entorn incert.En general, la tesi posa de manifest els avantatges en reconèixer i modelitzar la incertesa, amb la identificació de programes d'operació robustos capaços d'adaptar-se a un ampli rang de situacions possibles, enlloc de programes d'operació òptims per un escenari hipotètic. La metodologia proposada a nivell d'operació es pot considerar com un pas inicial per estendre's a nivells de decisió estratègics i tàctics. Alhora, la visió proactiva del problema permet reduir el buit existent entre la teoria i la pràctica industrial, i resulta en un major coneixement del procés, visibilitat per planificar activitats futures, així com també millora l'efectivitat de les tècniques reactives i de tot el sistema en general, característiques altament desitjables per mantenir-se actiu davant la globalitat, competitivitat i dinàmica que envolten un procés.Dynamism, responsiveness, and flexibility are essential features in the development of the current society. Globalization trends and fast advances in communication and information technologies make all evolve in a highly dynamic and uncertain environment. The uncertainty involved in a process system becomes a critical problem in decision making, as well as a recognized challenge in the area of Process Systems Engineering (PSE). In the context of scheduling, decision-support models developed up to this point, as well as commercial advanced planning and scheduling systems, rely generally on estimated input information, implicitly assuming that a schedule will be executed without deviations. The reaction to the effects of the uncertainty at execution time becomes a common practice, but it is not always effective or even possible. The alternative is to address the uncertainty proactively, i.e., at the time of reasoning, exploiting the available knowledge in the modeling procedure itself. In view of this situation, the following questions arise: what do we understand for uncertainty? How can uncertainty be considered within scheduling modeling systems? What is understood for schedule robustness and flexibility? How can schedule robustness be improved? What are the benefits? This thesis answers these questions in the context of operational analysis in PSE. Uncertainty is managed not from the traditional reactive viewpoint, but with the development of proactive decision-support systems aimed at identifying robust schedules that serve as a useful guidance for the lower control level, as well as for dependent entities in a supply chain environment. A basis to formalize the concept of schedule robustness is established. Based on this formalism, variable operation times and equipment breakdowns are first considered as the main uncertainties in short-term production scheduling. The problem is initially modeled using stochastic programming, and a simulation-based stochastic optimization framework is finally developed, which captures the multiple sources of uncertainty, as well as rescheduling strategies, proactively. The procedure-oriented system developed in the context of production scheduling is next extended to involve transport scheduling in multi-site systems with uncertain travel times. With this broader operational perspective, the coordination of production and transport activities, considered so far mainly in strategic and tactical analysis, is assessed. The final research point focuses on the effect of demands uncertainty in short-term scheduling decisions. The problem is analyzed from a risk management viewpoint, and alternative measures are assessed and compared to control the performance of the system in the uncertain environment.Overall, this research work reveals the advantages of recognizing and modeling uncertainty, with the identification of more robust schedules able to adapt to a wide range of possible situations, rather than optimal schedules for a hypothetical scenario. The management of uncertainty proposed from an operational perspective can be considered as a first step towards its extension to tactical and strategic levels of decision. The proactive perspective of the problem results in a more realistic view of the process system, and it is a promising way to reduce the gap between theory and industrial practices. Besides, it provides valuable insight on the process, visibility for future activities, as well as it improves the efficiency of reactive techniques and of the overall system, all highly desirable features to remain alive in the global, competitive, and dynamic process environment

Cyber-Physical Codesign of Wireless Structural Control System

Structural control systems play a critical role in protecting civil infrastructure from natural hazards such as earthquakes and extreme winds. Utilizing wireless sensors for sensing, communication and control, wireless structural control systems provide an attractive alternative for structural vibration mitigation. Although wireless control systems have advantages of flexible installation, rapid deployment and low maintenance cost, there are unique challenges associated with them, such as wireless network induced time delay and potential data loss. These challenges need to be considered jointly from both the network (cyber) and control (physical) perspectives. This research aims to develop a framework facilitating cyber-physical codesign of wireless control system. The challenges of wireless structural control are addressed through: (1) a numerical simulation tool to realistically model the complexities of wireless structural control systems, (2) a codesign approach for designing wireless control system, (3) a sensor platform to experimentally evaluate wireless control performance, (4) an estimation method to compensate for the data loss and sensor failure, and (5) a framework for fault tolerance study of wireless control system withreal-time hybrid simulation. The results of this work not only provide codesign tools to evaluate and validate wireless control design, but also the codesign strategies to implement on real-world structures for wireless structural control

PMCTrack: Delivering performance monitoring counter support to the OS scheduler

Hardware performance monitoring counters (PMCs) have proven effective in characterizing application performance. Because PMCs can only be accessed directly at the OS privilege level, kernellevel tools must be developed to enable the end-user and userspace programs to access PMCs. A large body of work has demonstrated that the OS can perform effective runtime optimizations in multicore systems by leveraging performance-counter data. Special attention has been paid to optimizations in the OS scheduler. While existing performance monitoring tools greatly simplify the collection of PMC application data from userspace, they do not provide an architecture-agnostic kernel-level mechanism that is capable of exposing high-level PMC metrics to OS components, such as the scheduler. As a result, the implementation of PMC-based OS scheduling schemes is typically tied to specific processor models. To address this shortcoming we present PMCTrack, a novel tool for the Linux kernel that provides a simple architecture-independent mechanism that makes it possible for the OS scheduler to access per-thread PMC data. Despite being an OSoriented tool, PMCTrack still allows the gathering of monitoring data from userspace, enabling kernel developers to carry out the necessary offline analysis and debugging to assist them during the scheduler design process. In addition, the tool provides both the OS and the user-space PMCTrack components with other insightful metrics available in modern processors and which are not directly exposed as PMCs, such as cache occupancy or energy consumption. This information is also of great value when it comes to analyzing the potential benefits of novel scheduling policies on real systems. In this paper, we analyze different case studies that demonstrate the flexibility, simplicity and powerful features of PMCTrack.Facultad de InformáticaInstituto de Investigación en Informátic

PMCTrack: Delivering performance monitoring counter support to the OS scheduler

Hardware performance monitoring counters (PMCs) have proven effective in characterizing application performance. Because PMCs can only be accessed directly at the OS privilege level, kernellevel tools must be developed to enable the end-user and userspace programs to access PMCs. A large body of work has demonstrated that the OS can perform effective runtime optimizations in multicore systems by leveraging performance-counter data. Special attention has been paid to optimizations in the OS scheduler. While existing performance monitoring tools greatly simplify the collection of PMC application data from userspace, they do not provide an architecture-agnostic kernel-level mechanism that is capable of exposing high-level PMC metrics to OS components, such as the scheduler. As a result, the implementation of PMC-based OS scheduling schemes is typically tied to specific processor models. To address this shortcoming we present PMCTrack, a novel tool for the Linux kernel that provides a simple architecture-independent mechanism that makes it possible for the OS scheduler to access per-thread PMC data. Despite being an OSoriented tool, PMCTrack still allows the gathering of monitoring data from userspace, enabling kernel developers to carry out the necessary offline analysis and debugging to assist them during the scheduler design process. In addition, the tool provides both the OS and the user-space PMCTrack components with other insightful metrics available in modern processors and which are not directly exposed as PMCs, such as cache occupancy or energy consumption. This information is also of great value when it comes to analyzing the potential benefits of novel scheduling policies on real systems. In this paper, we analyze different case studies that demonstrate the flexibility, simplicity and powerful features of PMCTrack.Facultad de InformáticaInstituto de Investigación en Informátic

Learning Model Checking and the Kernel Trick for Signal Temporal Logic on Stochastic Processes

We introduce a similarity function on formulae of signal temporal logic (STL). It comes in the form of a kernel function, well known in machine learning as a conceptually and computationally efficient tool. The corresponding kernel trick allows us to circumvent the complicated process of feature extraction, i.e. the (typically manual) effort to identify the decisive properties of formulae so that learning can be applied. We demonstrate this consequence and its advantages on the task of predicting (quantitative) satisfaction of STL formulae on stochastic processes: Using our kernel and the kernel trick, we learn (i) computationally efficiently (ii) a practically precise predictor of satisfaction, (iii) avoiding the difficult task of finding a way to explicitly turn formulae into vectors of numbers in a sensible way. We back the high precision we have achieved in the experiments by a theoretically sound PAC guarantee, ensuring our procedure efficiently delivers a close-to-optimal predictor

Predictive Reliability and Fault Management in Exascale Systems: State of the Art and Perspectives

© ACM, 2020. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of ACM for your personal use. Not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in ACM Computing Surveys, Vol. 53, No. 5, Article 95. Publication date: September 2020. https://doi.org/10.1145/3403956[EN] Performance and power constraints come together with Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor technology scaling in future Exascale systems. Technology scaling makes each individual transistor more prone to faults and, due to the exponential increase in the number of devices per chip, to higher system fault rates. Consequently, High-performance Computing (HPC) systems need to integrate prediction, detection, and recovery mechanisms to cope with faults efficiently. This article reviews fault detection, fault prediction, and recovery techniques in HPC systems, from electronics to system level. We analyze their strengths and limitations. Finally, we identify the promising paths to meet the reliability levels of Exascale systems.This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 (H2020) research and innovation program under the FET-HPC Grant Agreement No. 801137 (RECIPE). Jaume Abella was also partially supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain under Contract No. TIN2015-65316-P and under Ramon y Cajal Postdoctoral Fellowship No. RYC-2013-14717, as well as by the HiPEAC Network of Excellence. Ramon Canal is partially supported by the Generalitat de Catalunya under Contract No. 2017SGR0962.Canal, R.; Hernández Luz, C.; Tornero-Gavilá, R.; Cilardo, A.; Massari, G.; Reghenzani, F.; Fornaciari, W.... (2020). Predictive Reliability and Fault Management in Exascale Systems: State of the Art and Perspectives. ACM Computing Surveys. 53(5):1-32. https://doi.org/10.1145/3403956S132535Abella, J., Hernandez, C., Quinones, E., Cazorla, F. J., Conmy, P. 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IEEE Internet Com

Refactoring the UrQMD model for many-core architectures

Ultrarelativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics is a physics model to describe the transport, collision, scattering, and decay of nuclear particles. The UrQMD framework has been in use for nearly 20 years since its first development. In this period computing aspects, the design of code, and the efficiency of computation have been minor points of interest. Nowadays an additional issue arises due to the fact that the run time of the framework does not diminish any more with new hardware generations. The current development in computing hardware is mainly focused on parallelism. Especially in scientific applications a high order of parallelisation can be achieved due to the superposition principle. In this thesis it is shown how modern design criteria and algorithm redesign are applied to physics frameworks. The redesign with a special emphasise on many-core architectures allows for significant improvements of the execution speed. The most time consuming part of UrQMD is a newly introduced relativistic hydrodynamic phase. The algorithm used to simulate the hydrodynamic evolution is the SHASTA. As the sequential form of SHASTA is successfully applied in various simulation frameworks for heavy ion collisions its possible parallelisation is analysed. Two different implementations of SHASTA are presented. The first one is an improved sequential implementation. By applying a more concise design and evading unnecessary memory copies, the execution time could be reduced to the half of the FORTRAN version’s execution time. The usage of memory could be reduced by 80% compared to the memory needed in the original version. The second implementation concentrates fully on the usage of many-core architectures and deviates significantly from the classical implementation. Contrary to the sequential implementation, it follows the recalculate instead of memory look-up paradigm. By this means the execution speed could be accelerated up to a factor of 460 on GPUs. Additionally a stability analysis of the UrQMD model is presented. Applying metapro- gramming UrQMD is compiled and executed in a massively parallel setup. The resulting simulation data of all parallel UrQMD instances were hereafter gathered and analysed. Hence UrQMD could be proven of high stability to the uncertainty of experimental data. As a further application of modern programming paradigms a prototypical implementa- tion of the worldline formalism is presented. This formalism allows for a direct calculation of Feynman integrals and constitutes therefore an interesting enhancement for the UrQMD model. Its massively parallel implementation on GPUs is examined