From complex questionnaire and interviewing data to intelligent Bayesian network models for medical decision support

OBJECTIVES: 1) To develop a rigorous and repeatable method for building effective Bayesian network (BN) models for medical decision support from complex, unstructured and incomplete patient questionnaires and interviews that inevitably contain examples of repetitive, redundant and contradictory responses; 2) To exploit expert knowledge in the BN development since further data acquisition is usually not possible; 3) To ensure the BN model can be used for interventional analysis; 4) To demonstrate why using data alone to learn the model structure and parameters is often unsatisfactory even when extensive data is available. METHOD: The method is based on applying a range of recent BN developments targeted at helping experts build BNs given limited data. While most of the components of the method are based on established work, its novelty is that it provides a rigorous consolidated and generalised framework that addresses the whole life-cycle of BN model development. The method is based on two original and recent validated BN models in forensic psychiatry, known as DSVM-MSS and DSVM-P. RESULTS: When employed with the same datasets, the DSVM-MSS demonstrated competitive to superior predictive performance (AUC scores 0.708 and 0.797) against the state-of-the-art (AUC scores ranging from 0.527 to 0.705), and the DSVM-P demonstrated superior predictive performance (cross-validated AUC score of 0.78) against the state-of-the-art (AUC scores ranging from 0.665 to 0.717). More importantly, the resulting models go beyond improving predictive accuracy and into usefulness for risk management purposes through intervention, and enhanced decision support in terms of answering complex clinical questions that are based on unobserved evidence. CONCLUSIONS: This development process is applicable to any application domain which involves large-scale decision analysis based on such complex information, rather than based on data with hard facts, and in conjunction with the incorporation of expert knowledge for decision support via intervention. The novelty extends to challenging the decision scientists to reason about building models based on what information is really required for inference, rather than based on what data is available and hence, forces decision scientists to use available data in a much smarter way

Convergence behaviour of structural FSM traversal

We present a theoretical analysis of structural FSM traversal, which is the basis for the sequential equivalence checking algorithm Record & Play presented earlier. We compare the convergence behaviour of exact and approximative structural FSM traversal with that of standard BDD-based FSM traversal. We show that for most circuits encountered in practice exact structural FSM traversal reaches the fixed point as fast as symbolic FSM traversal, while approximation can significantly reduce in the number of iterations needed. Our experiments confirm these results

Metastability-Containing Circuits

In digital circuits, metastability can cause deteriorated signals that neither are logical 0 or logical 1, breaking the abstraction of Boolean logic. Unfortunately, any way of reading a signal from an unsynchronized clock domain or performing an analog-to-digital conversion incurs the risk of a metastable upset; no digital circuit can deterministically avoid, resolve, or detect metastability (Marino, 1981). Synchronizers, the only traditional countermeasure, exponentially decrease the odds of maintained metastability over time. Trading synchronization delay for an increased probability to resolve metastability to logical 0 or 1, they do not guarantee success. We propose a fundamentally different approach: It is possible to contain metastability by fine-grained logical masking so that it cannot infect the entire circuit. This technique guarantees a limited degree of metastability in---and uncertainty about---the output. At the heart of our approach lies a time- and value-discrete model for metastability in synchronous clocked digital circuits. Metastability is propagated in a worst-case fashion, allowing to derive deterministic guarantees, without and unlike synchronizers. The proposed model permits positive results and passes the test of reproducing Marino's impossibility results. We fully classify which functions can be computed by circuits with standard registers. Regarding masking registers, we show that they become computationally strictly more powerful with each clock cycle, resulting in a non-trivial hierarchy of computable functions

Error Mitigation Using Approximate Logic Circuits: A Comparison of Probabilistic and Evolutionary Approaches

Technology scaling poses an increasing challenge to the reliability of digital circuits. Hardware redundancy solutions, such as triple modular redundancy (TMR), produce very high area overhead, so partial redundancy is often used to reduce the overheads. Approximate logic circuits provide a general framework for optimized mitigation of errors arising from a broad class of failure mechanisms, including transient, intermittent, and permanent failures. However, generating an optimal redundant logic circuit that is able to mask the faults with the highest probability while minimizing the area overheads is a challenging problem. In this study, we propose and compare two new approaches to generate approximate logic circuits to be used in a TMR schema. The probabilistic approach approximates a circuit in a greedy manner based on a probabilistic estimation of the error. The evolutionary approach can provide radically different solutions that are hard to reach by other methods. By combining these two approaches, the solution space can be explored in depth. Experimental results demonstrate that the evolutionary approach can produce better solutions, but the probabilistic approach is close. On the other hand, these approaches provide much better scalability than other existing partial redundancy techniques.This work was supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain under project ESP2015-68245-C4-1-P, and by the Czech science foundation project GA16-17538S and the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic from the National Programme of Sustainability (NPU II); project IT4Innovations excellence in science - LQ1602

Susceptible Workload Evaluation and Protection using Selective Fault Tolerance

Low power fault tolerance design techniques trade reliability to reduce the area cost and the power overhead of integrated circuits by protecting only a subset of their workload or their most vulnerable parts. However, in the presence of faults not all workloads are equally susceptible to errors. In this paper, we present a low power fault tolerance design technique that selects and protects the most susceptible workload. We propose to rank the workload susceptibility as the likelihood of any error to bypass the logic masking of the circuit and propagate to its outputs. The susceptible workload is protected by a partial Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) scheme. We evaluate the proposed technique on timing-independent and timing-dependent errors induced by permanent and transient faults. In comparison with unranked selective fault tolerance approach, we demonstrate a) a similar error coverage with a 39.7% average reduction of the area overhead or b) a 86.9% average error coverage improvement for a similar area overhead. For the same area overhead case, we observe an error coverage improvement of 53.1% and 53.5% against permanent stuck-at and transition faults, respectively, and an average error coverage improvement of 151.8% and 89.0% against timing-dependent and timing-independent transient faults, respectively. Compared to TMR, the proposed technique achieves an area and power overhead reduction of 145.8% to 182.0%

Susceptible Workload Evaluation and Protection using Selective Fault Tolerance

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution International License CC-BY 4.0 ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Low power fault tolerance design techniques trade reliability to reduce the area cost and the power overhead of integrated circuits by protecting only a subset of their workload or their most vulnerable parts. However, in the presence of faults not all workloads are equally susceptible to errors. In this paper, we present a low power fault tolerance design technique that selects and protects the most susceptible workload. We propose to rank the workload susceptibility as the likelihood of any error to bypass the logic masking of the circuit and propagate to its outputs. The susceptible workload is protected by a partial Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) scheme. We evaluate the proposed technique on timing-independent and timing-dependent errors induced by permanent and transient faults. In comparison with unranked selective fault tolerance approach, we demonstrate a) a similar error coverage with a 39.7% average reduction of the area overhead or b) a 86.9% average error coverage improvement for a similar area overhead. For the same area overhead case, we observe an error coverage improvement of 53.1% and 53.5% against permanent stuck-at and transition faults, respectively, and an average error coverage improvement of 151.8% and 89.0% against timing-dependent and timing-independent transient faults, respectively. Compared to TMR, the proposed technique achieves an area and power overhead reduction of 145.8% to 182.0%.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio