Sparse data-extended fusion method for sea surface temperature prediction on the East China Sea.

The accurate temperature background field plays a vital role in the numerical prediction of sea surface temperature (SST). At present, the SST background field is mainly derived from multi-source data fusion, including satellite SST data and in situ data from marine stations, buoys, and voluntary observing ships. The characteristics of satellite SST data are wide coverage but low accuracy, whereas the in situ data have high accuracy but sparse distribution. For obtaining a more accurate temperature background field and realizing the fusion of measured data with satellite data as much as possible, we propose a sparse data-extended fusion method to predict SST in this paper. By using this method, the actual observed sites and buoys data in the East China Sea area are fused with Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder Version 5.0 SST data. Furthermore, the temperature field in the study area were predicted by using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) deep learning methods, respectively. Finally, we obtained the results by traditional prediction methods to verify them. The experimental results show that the method we proposed in this paper can obtain more accurate prediction results, and effectively compensate for the uncertainty caused by the parameterization of ocean dynamic process, the discrete method, and the error of initial conditions

Improved Particle Swarm Optimization for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the key factors affecting ocean climate change. Hence, Sea Surface Temperature Prediction (SSTP) is of great significance to the study of navigation and meteorology. However, SST data is well-known to suffer from high levels of redundant information, which makes it very difficult to realize accurate predictions, for instance when using time-series regression. This paper constructs a simple yet effective SSTP model, dubbed DSL (given its origination from methods known as DTW, SVM and LSPSO). DSL is based on time-series similarity measure, multiple pattern learning and parameter optimization. It consists of three parts: (1) using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to mine the similarities in historical SST series; (2) training a Support Vector Machine (SVM) using the top-k similar patterns, deriving a robust SSTP model that offers a 5-day prediction window based on multiple SST input sequences; and (3) developing an improved Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method, dubbed LSPSO, which uses a local search strategy to achieve the combined requirement of prediction accuracy and efficiency. Our method strives for optimal model parameters (pattern length and interval step) and is suited for long-term series, leading to significant improvements in SST trend predictions. Our experimental validation shows a 16.7% reduction in prediction error, at a 76% gain in operating efficiency. We also achieve a significant improvement in prediction accuracy of non-stationary SST time series, compared to DTW, SVM, DS (i.e., DTW + SVM), and a recent deep learning method dubbed Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM)

Prediction of monthly Arctic sea ice concentrations using satellite and reanalysis data based on convolutional neural networks

Changes in Arctic sea ice affect atmospheric circulation, ocean current, and polar ecosystems. There have been unprecedented decreases in the amount of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. In this study, a novel 1-month sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction model is proposed, with eight predictors using a deep-learning approach, convolutional neural networks (CNNs). This monthly SIC prediction model based on CNNs is shown to perform better predictions (mean absolute error - MAE - of 2.28 %, anomaly correlation coefficient - ACC - of 0.98, root-mean-square error - RMSE - of 5.76 %, normalized RMSE - nRMSE - of 16.15 %, and NSE - Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency - of 0.97) than a random-forest-based (RF-based) model (MAE of 2.45 %, ACC of 0.98, RMSE of 6.61 %, nRMSE of 18.64 %, and NSE of 0.96) and the persistence model based on the monthly trend (MAE of 4.31 %, ACC of 0.95, RMSE of 10.54 %, nRMSE of 29.17 %, and NSE of 0.89) through hindcast validations. The spatio-temporal analysis also confirmed the superiority of the CNN model. The CNN model showed good SIC prediction results in extreme cases that recorded unforeseen sea ice plummets in 2007 and 2012 with RMSEs of less than 5.0 %. This study also examined the importance of the input variables through a sensitivity analysis. In both the CNN and RF models, the variables of past SICs were identified as the most sensitive factor in predicting SICs. For both models, the SIC-related variables generally contributed more to predict SICs over ice-covered areas, while other meteorological and oceanographic variables were more sensitive to the prediction of SICs in marginal ice zones. The proposed 1-month SIC prediction model provides valuable information which can be used in various applications, such as Arctic shipping-route planning, management of the fishing industry, and long-term sea ice forecasting and dynamics

Predicting Blood Glucose with an LSTM and Bi-LSTM Based Deep Neural Network

A deep learning network was used to predict future blood glucose levels, as this can permit diabetes patients to take action before imminent hyperglycaemia and hypoglycaemia. A sequential model with one long-short-term memory (LSTM) layer, one bidirectional LSTM layer and several fully connected layers was used to predict blood glucose levels for different prediction horizons. The method was trained and tested on 26 datasets from 20 real patients. The proposed network outperforms the baseline methods in terms of all evaluation criteria.Comment: 5 pages, submitted to 2018 14th Symposium on Neural Networks and Applications (NEUREL

Volcanic forcing improves Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model scaling performance

Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural forcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature correlations found in the observed records. We study ensemble experiments performed with the NCAR PCM for 10 different historical scenarios, including no forcings, greenhouse gas, sulfate aerosol, ozone, solar, volcanic forcing and various combinations, such as it natural, anthropogenic and all forcings. We compare the scaling exponents characterizing the long-term correlations of the observed and simulated model data for 16 representative land stations and 16 sites in the Atlantic Ocean for these scenarios. We find that inclusion of volcanic forcing in the AOGCM considerably improves the PCM scaling behavior. The scenarios containing volcanic forcing are able to reproduce quite well the observed scaling exponents for the land with exponents around 0.65 independent of the station distance from the ocean. For the Atlantic Ocean, scenarios with the volcanic forcing slightly underestimate the observed persistence exhibiting an average exponent 0.74 instead of 0.85 for reconstructed data.Comment: 4 figure