Integration of cost-risk assessment of denial of service within an intelligent maintenance system

As organisations become richer in data the function of asset management will have to increasingly use intelligent systems to control condition monitoring systems and organise maintenance. In the future the UK rail industry is anticipating having to optimize capacity by running trains closer to each other. In this situation maintenance becomes extremely problematic as within such a high-performance network a relatively minor fault will impact more trains and passengers; such denial of service causes reputational damage for the industry and causes fines to be levied against the infrastructure owner, Network Rail. Intelligent systems used to control condition monitoring systems will need to optimize for several factors; optimization for minimizing denial of service will be one such factor. With schedules anticipated to be increasingly complicated detailed estimation methods will be extremely difficult to implement. Cost prediction of maintenance activities tend to be expert driven and require extensive details, making automation of such an activity difficult. Therefore a stochastic process will be needed to approach the problem of predicting the denial of service arising from any required maintenance. Good uncertainty modelling will help to increase the confidence of estimates. This paper seeks to detail the challenges that the UK Railway industry face with regards to cost modelling of maintenance activities and outline an example of a suitable cost model for quantifying cost uncertainty. The proposed uncertainty quantification is based on historical cost data and interpretation of its statistical distributions. These estimates are then integrated in a cost model to obtain accurate uncertainty measurements of outputs through Monte-Carlo simulation methods. An additional criteria of the model was that it be suitable for integration into an existing prototype integrated intelligent maintenance system. It is anticipated that applying an integrated maintenance management system will apply significant downward pressure on maintenance budgets and reduce denial of service. Accurate cost estimation is therefore of great importance if anticipated cost efficiencies are to be achieved. While the rail industry has been the focus of this work, other industries have been considered and it is anticipated that the approach will be applicable to many other organisations across several asset management intensive industrie

System Reliability-Redundancy Allocation by Evolutionary Computation

International audienc

Improvement of the maintenance management process of complex technical systems which demand high reliability

Glavni cilj ovog istraživanja bio je razviti postupak za ocjenjivanje izvedbe funkcija održavanja u organizacijama koje su odgovorne za održavanje sustava koji zahtijevaju visoku razinu pouzdanosti; postupak koji bi, uz manje izmjene, mogao biti primjenjiv i u drugim organizacijama. Proces uključuje razmatranje čimbenika koji utječu na uspješnost i učinkovitost funkcije održavanja. Istraživanje je provedeno u organizacijama koje se bave održavanjem zrakoplova, u regiji jugoistočne Europe.The main objective of this research was to develop a procedure for assessing the performance of maintenance functions in organizations that are responsible for maintaining systems that require a high level of reliability; a procedure which, with minor changes, could be applicable in other organizations, as well. The process included consideration of factors that affect the success and performance of maintenance functions. The research was carried out in Aviation Maintenance Organizations in the region of South-eastern Europe

A Novel Idea for Optimizing Condition-Based Maintenance Using Genetic Algorithms and Continuous Event Simulation Techniques

Effective maintenance strategies are of utmost significance for system engineering due to their direct linkage with financial aspects and safety of the plants’ operation. At a point where the state of a system, for instance, level of its deterioration, can be constantly observed, a strategy based on condition-based maintenance (CBM) may be affected; wherein upkeep of the system is done progressively on the premise of monitored state of the system. In this article, a multicomponent framework is considered that is continuously kept under observation. In order to decide an optimal deterioration stage for the said system, Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique has been utilized that figures out when its preventive maintenance should be carried out. The system is configured into a multiobjective problem that is aimed at optimizing the two desired objectives, namely, profitability and accessibility. For the sake of reality, a prognostic model portraying the advancements of deteriorating system has been employed that will be based on utilization of continuous event simulation techniques. In this regard, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation has been shortlisted as it can take into account a wide range of probable options that can help in reducing uncertainty. The inherent benefits proffered by the said simulation technique are fully utilized to display various elements of a deteriorating system working under stressed environment. The proposed synergic model (GA and MC) is considered to be more effective due to the employment of “drop-by-drop approach” that permits successful drive of the related search process with regard to the best optimal solutions

Applications of simulation in maintenance research

The area of asset maintenance is becoming increasingly important as greater asset availability is demanded. This is evident in increasingly automated and more tightly integrated production systems as well as in service contracts where the provider is contracted to provide high levels of availability. Simulation techniques are able to model complex systems such as those involving maintenance and can be used to aid performance improvement. This paper examines engineering maintenance simulation research and applications in order to identify apparent research gaps. A systematic literature review was conducted in order to identify the gaps in maintenance systems simulation literature. Simulation has been applied to model different maintenance sub-systems (asset utilisation, asset failure, scheduling, staffing, inventory, etc.) but these are typically addressed in isolation and overall maintenance system behaviour is poorly addressed, especially outside of the manufacturing systems discipline. Assessing the effect of Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) on complex maintenance operations using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is absent. This paper categorises the application of simulation in maintenance into eight categories

Time, Cost, and Environmental Impact Analysis for Sustainable Design at Multiple Building Levels

Construction projects are complex endeavors that require the involvement of different professional disciplines in order to meet various project objectives that are often conflicting. The level of complexity and the multi-objective nature of construction projects lend themselves to collaborative design and construction such as integrated project delivery (IPD), in which relevant disciplines work together during project conception, design and construction. Traditionally, the main objectives of construction projects have been to build in the least amount of time with the lowest cost possible, thus the inherent and well-established relationship between cost and time has been the focus of many studies. The importance of being able to effectively model relationships among multiple objectives in building construction has been emphasized in a wide range of research. In general, the trade-off relationship between time and cost is well understood and there is ample research on the subject. However, despite sustainable building designs, relationships between time and environmental impact, as well as cost and environmental impact, have not been fully investigated. The objectives of this research were mainly to analyze and identify relationships of time, cost, and environmental impact, in terms of CO2 emissions, at different levels of a building: material level, component level, and building level, at the pre-use phase, including manufacturing and construction, and the relationships of life cycle cost and life cycle CO2 emissions at the usage phase. Additionally, this research aimed to develop a robust simulation-based multi-objective decision-support tool, called SimulEICon, which took construction data uncertainty into account, and was capable of incorporating life cycle assessment information to the decision-making process. The findings of this research supported the trade-off relationship between time and cost at different building levels. Moreover, the time and CO2 emissions relationship presented trade-off behavior at the pre-use phase. The results of the relationship between cost and CO2 emissions were interestingly proportional at the pre-use phase. The same pattern continually presented after the construction to the usage phase. Understanding the relationships between those objectives is a key in successfully planning and designing environmentally sustainable construction projects