Economic Factors of Vulnerability Trade and Exploitation

Cybercrime markets support the development and diffusion of new attack technologies, vulnerability exploits, and malware. Whereas the revenue streams of cyber attackers have been studied multiple times in the literature, no quantitative account currently exists on the economics of attack acquisition and deployment. Yet, this understanding is critical to characterize the production of (traded) exploits, the economy that drives it, and its effects on the overall attack scenario. In this paper we provide an empirical investigation of the economics of vulnerability exploitation, and the effects of market factors on likelihood of exploit. Our data is collected first-handedly from a prominent Russian cybercrime market where the trading of the most active attack tools reported by the security industry happens. Our findings reveal that exploits in the underground are priced similarly or above vulnerabilities in legitimate bug-hunting programs, and that the refresh cycle of exploits is slower than currently often assumed. On the other hand, cybercriminals are becoming faster at introducing selected vulnerabilities, and the market is in clear expansion both in terms of players, traded exploits, and exploit pricing. We then evaluate the effects of these market variables on likelihood of attack realization, and find strong evidence of the correlation between market activity and exploit deployment. We discuss implications on vulnerability metrics, economics, and exploit measurement.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, 14 table

Tiresias: Predicting Security Events Through Deep Learning

With the increased complexity of modern computer attacks, there is a need for defenders not only to detect malicious activity as it happens, but also to predict the specific steps that will be taken by an adversary when performing an attack. However this is still an open research problem, and previous research in predicting malicious events only looked at binary outcomes (e.g., whether an attack would happen or not), but not at the specific steps that an attacker would undertake. To fill this gap we present Tiresias, a system that leverages Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to predict future events on a machine, based on previous observations. We test Tiresias on a dataset of 3.4 billion security events collected from a commercial intrusion prevention system, and show that our approach is effective in predicting the next event that will occur on a machine with a precision of up to 0.93. We also show that the models learned by Tiresias are reasonably stable over time, and provide a mechanism that can identify sudden drops in precision and trigger a retraining of the system. Finally, we show that the long-term memory typical of RNNs is key in performing event prediction, rendering simpler methods not up to the task

Analysis of operating system diversity for intrusion tolerance

One of the key benefits of using intrusion-tolerant systems is the possibility of ensuring correct behavior in the presence of attacks and intrusions. These security gains are directly dependent on the components exhibiting failure diversity. To what extent failure diversity is observed in practical deployment depends on how diverse are the components that constitute the system. In this paper, we present a study with operating system's (OS's) vulnerability data from the NIST National Vulnerability Database (NVD). We have analyzed the vulnerabilities of 11 different OSs over a period of 18 years, to check how many of these vulnerabilities occur in more than one OS. We found this number to be low for several combinations of OSs. Hence, although there are a few caveats on the use of NVD data to support definitive conclusions, our analysis shows that by selecting appropriate OSs, one can preclude (or reduce substantially) common vulnerabilities from occurring in the replicas of the intrusion-tolerant system

Talos: Neutralizing Vulnerabilities with Security Workarounds for Rapid Response

Considerable delays often exist between the discovery of a vulnerability and the issue of a patch. One way to mitigate this window of vulnerability is to use a configuration workaround, which prevents the vulnerable code from being executed at the cost of some lost functionality -- but only if one is available. Since program configurations are not specifically designed to mitigate software vulnerabilities, we find that they only cover 25.2% of vulnerabilities. To minimize patch delay vulnerabilities and address the limitations of configuration workarounds, we propose Security Workarounds for Rapid Response (SWRRs), which are designed to neutralize security vulnerabilities in a timely, secure, and unobtrusive manner. Similar to configuration workarounds, SWRRs neutralize vulnerabilities by preventing vulnerable code from being executed at the cost of some lost functionality. However, the key difference is that SWRRs use existing error-handling code within programs, which enables them to be mechanically inserted with minimal knowledge of the program and minimal developer effort. This allows SWRRs to achieve high coverage while still being fast and easy to deploy. We have designed and implemented Talos, a system that mechanically instruments SWRRs into a given program, and evaluate it on five popular Linux server programs. We run exploits against 11 real-world software vulnerabilities and show that SWRRs neutralize the vulnerabilities in all cases. Quantitative measurements on 320 SWRRs indicate that SWRRs instrumented by Talos can neutralize 75.1% of all potential vulnerabilities and incur a loss of functionality similar to configuration workarounds in 71.3% of those cases. Our overall conclusion is that automatically generated SWRRs can safely mitigate 2.1x more vulnerabilities, while only incurring a loss of functionality comparable to that of traditional configuration workarounds.Comment: Published in Proceedings of the 37th IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (Oakland 2016

PACE: Pattern Accurate Computationally Efficient Bootstrapping for Timely Discovery of Cyber-Security Concepts

Public disclosure of important security information, such as knowledge of vulnerabilities or exploits, often occurs in blogs, tweets, mailing lists, and other online sources months before proper classification into structured databases. In order to facilitate timely discovery of such knowledge, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning algorithm, PACE, for identifying and classifying relevant entities in text sources. The main contribution of this paper is an enhancement of the traditional bootstrapping method for entity extraction by employing a time-memory trade-off that simultaneously circumvents a costly corpus search while strengthening pattern nomination, which should increase accuracy. An implementation in the cyber-security domain is discussed as well as challenges to Natural Language Processing imposed by the security domain.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, ieeeTran conference. International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications 201

Management and Security of IoT systems using Microservices

Devices that assist the user with some task or help them to make an informed decision are called smart devices. A network of such devices connected to internet are collectively called as Internet of Things (IoT). The applications of IoT are expanding exponentially and are becoming a part of our day to day lives. The rise of IoT led to new security and management issues. In this project, we propose a solution for some major problems faced by the IoT devices, including the problem of complexity due to heterogeneous platforms and the lack of IoT device monitoring for security and fault tolerance. We aim to solve the above issues in a microservice architecture. We build a data pipeline for IoT devices to send data through a messaging platform Kafka and monitor the devices using the collected data by making real time dashboards and a machine learning model to give better insights of the data. For proof of concept, we test the proposed solution on a heterogeneous cluster, including Raspberry Pi’s and IoT devices from different vendors. We validate our design by presenting some simple experimental results

User-Behavior Based Detection of Infection Onset

A major vector of computer infection is through exploiting software or design flaws in networked applications such as the browser. Malicious code can be fetched and executed on a victim’s machine without the user’s permission, as in drive-by download (DBD) attacks. In this paper, we describe a new tool called DeWare for detecting the onset of infection delivered through vulnerable applications. DeWare explores and enforces causal relationships between computer-related human behaviors and system properties, such as file-system access and process execution. Our tool can be used to provide real time protection of a personal computer, as well as for diagnosing and evaluating untrusted websites for forensic purposes. Besides the concrete DBD detection solution, we also formally define causal relationships between user actions and system events on a host. Identifying and enforcing correct causal relationships have important applications in realizing advanced and secure operating systems. We perform extensive experimental evaluation, including a user study with 21 participants, thousands of legitimate websites (for testing false alarms), as well as 84 malicious websites in the wild. Our results show that DeWare is able to correctly distinguish legitimate download events from unauthorized system events with a low false positive rate (< 1%)