9 research outputs found
Causal network inference using biochemical kinetics
Motivation: Networks are widely used as structural summaries of biochemical systems. Statistical estimation of networks is usually based on linear or discrete models. However, the dynamics of biochemical systems are generally non-linear, suggesting that suitable non-linear formulations may offer gains with respect to causal network inference and aid in associated prediction problems. Results: We present a general framework for network inference and dynamical prediction using time course data that is rooted in nonlinear biochemical kinetics. This is achieved by considering a dynamical system based on a chemical reaction graph with associated kinetic parameters. Both the graph and kinetic parameters are treated as unknown; inference is carried out within a Bayesian framework. This allows prediction of dynamical behavior even when the underlying reaction graph itself is unknown or uncertain. Results, based on (i) data simulated from a mechanistic model of mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling and (ii) phosphoproteomic data from cancer cell lines, demonstrate that non-linear formulations can yield gains in causal network inference and permit dynamical prediction and uncertainty quantification in the challenging setting where the reaction graph is unknown. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press
Exploiting network topology for large-scale inference of nonlinear reaction models
The development of chemical reaction models aids understanding and prediction
in areas ranging from biology to electrochemistry and combustion. A systematic
approach to building reaction network models uses observational data not only
to estimate unknown parameters, but also to learn model structure. Bayesian
inference provides a natural approach to this data-driven construction of
models. Yet traditional Bayesian model inference methodologies that numerically
evaluate the evidence for each model are often infeasible for nonlinear
reaction network inference, as the number of plausible models can be
combinatorially large. Alternative approaches based on model-space sampling can
enable large-scale network inference, but their realization presents many
challenges. In this paper, we present new computational methods that make
large-scale nonlinear network inference tractable. First, we exploit the
topology of networks describing potential interactions among chemical species
to design improved "between-model" proposals for reversible-jump Markov chain
Monte Carlo. Second, we introduce a sensitivity-based determination of move
types which, when combined with network-aware proposals, yields significant
additional gains in sampling performance. These algorithms are demonstrated on
inference problems drawn from systems biology, with nonlinear differential
equation models of species interactions
Bayesian inference of chemical kinetic models from proposed reactions
Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for combining experimental data with prior knowledge to develop chemical kinetic models and quantify the associated uncertainties, not only in parameter values but also in model structure. Most existing applications of Bayesian model selection methods to chemical kinetics have been limited to comparisons among a small set of models, however. The significant computational cost of evaluating posterior model probabilities renders traditional Bayesian methods infeasible when the model space becomes large. We present a new framework for tractable Bayesian model inference and uncertainty quantification using a large number of systematically generated model hypotheses. The approach involves imposing point-mass mixture priors over rate constants and exploring the resulting posterior distribution using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The posterior samples are used to identify plausible models, to quantify rate constant uncertainties, and to extract key diagnostic information about model structure—such as the reactions and operating pathways most strongly supported by the data. We provide numerical demonstrations of the proposed framework by inferring kinetic models for catalytic steam and dry reforming of methane using available experimental data
Bayesian inference of chemical kinetic models from proposed reactions
Abstract Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for combining experimental data with prior knowledge to develop chemical kinetic models and quantify the associated uncertainties, not only in parameter values but also in model structure. Most existing applications of Bayesian model selection methods to chemical kinetics have been limited to comparisons among a small set of models, however. The significant computational cost of evaluating posterior model probabilities renders traditional Bayesian methods infeasible when the model space becomes large. We present a new framework for tractable Bayesian model inference and uncertainty quantification using a large number of systematically generated model hypotheses. The approach involves imposing point-mass mixture priors over rate constants and exploring the resulting posterior distribution using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The posterior samples are used to identify plausible models, to quantify rate constant uncertainties, and to extract key diagnostic information about model structuresuch as the reactions and operating pathways most strongly supported by the data. We provide numerical demonstrations of the proposed framework by inferring kinetic models for catalytic steam and dry reforming of methane using available experimental data
Network inference using steady-state data and Goldbeter-koshland kinetics
Motivation: Network inference approaches are widely used to shed light on regulatory interplay between molecular players such as genes and proteins. Biochemical processes underlying networks of interest (e.g. gene regulatory or protein signalling networks) are generally nonlinear. In many settings, knowledge is available concerning relevant chemical kinetics. However, existing network inference methods for continuous, steady-state data are typically rooted in statistical formulations, which do not exploit chemical kinetics to guide inference. Results: Herein, we present an approach to network inference for steady-state data that is rooted in non-linear descriptions of biochemical mechanism. We use equilibrium analysis of chemical kinetics to obtain functional forms that are in turn used to infer networks using steady-state data. The approach we propose is directly applicable to conventional steady-state gene expression or proteomic data and does not require knowledge of either network topology or any kinetic parameters. We illustrate the approach in the context of protein phosphorylation networks, using data simulated from a recent mechanistic model and proteomic data from cancer cell lines. In the former, the true network is known and used for assessment, whereas in the latter, results are compared against known biochemistry. We find that the proposed methodology is more effective at estimating network topology than methods based on linear models. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved
Bayesian inference for protein signalling networks
Cellular response to a changing chemical environment is mediated by a complex system of interactions
involving molecules such as genes, proteins and metabolites. In particular, genetic and epigenetic variation
ensure that cellular response is often highly specific to individual cell types, or to different patients
in the clinical setting. Conceptually, cellular systems may be characterised as networks of interacting
components together with biochemical parameters specifying rates of reaction. Taken together, the network
and parameters form a predictive model of cellular dynamics which may be used to simulate the
effect of hypothetical drug regimens.
In practice, however, both network topology and reaction rates remain partially or entirely unknown,
depending on individual genetic variation and environmental conditions. Prediction under parameter
uncertainty is a classical statistical problem. Yet, doubly uncertain prediction, where both parameters
and the underlying network topology are unknown, leads to highly non-trivial probability distributions
which currently require gross simplifying assumptions to analyse. Recent advances in molecular assay
technology now permit high-throughput data-driven studies of cellular dynamics. This thesis sought to
develop novel statistical methods in this context, focussing primarily on the problems of (i) elucidating
biochemical network topology from assay data and (ii) prediction of dynamical response to therapy when
both network and parameters are uncertain