Multi-scale Inference of Interaction Rules in Animal Groups Using Bayesian Model Selection

Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical ‘phase transition’, whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have ‘memory’ of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture fine scale rules of interaction, which are primarily mediated by physical contact. Conversely, the Markovian self-propelled particle model captures the fine scale rules of interaction but fails to reproduce global dynamics. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects

Inferring the rules of social interaction in migrating caribou

Social interactions are a significant factor that influence the decision-making of species ranging from humans to bacteria. In the context of animal migration, social interactions may lead to improved decision-making, greater ability to respond to environmental cues, and the cultural transmission of optimal routes. Despite their significance, the precise nature of social interactions in migrating species remains largely unknown. Here we deploy unmanned aerial systems to collect aerial footage of caribou as they undertake their migration from Victoria Island to mainland Canada. Through a Bayesian analysis of trajectories we reveal the fine-scale interaction rules of migrating caribou and show they are attracted to one another and copy directional choices of neighbours, but do not interact through clearly defined metric or topological interaction ranges. By explicitly considering the role of social information on movement decisions we construct a map of near neighbour influence that quantifies the nature of information flow in these herds. These results will inform more realistic, mechanism-based models of migration in caribou and other social ungulates, leading to better predictions of spatial use patterns and responses to changing environmental conditions. Moreover, we anticipate that the protocol we developed here will be broadly applicable to study social behaviour in a wide range of migratory and non-migratory taxa. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Collective movement ecology’

Bayesian Inference for Identifying Interaction Rules in Moving Animal Groups

The emergence of similar collective patterns from different self-propelled particle models of animal groups points to a restricted set of “universal” classes for these patterns. While universality is interesting, it is often the fine details of animal interactions that are of biological importance. Universality thus presents a challenge to inferring such interactions from macroscopic group dynamics since these can be consistent with many underlying interaction models. We present a Bayesian framework for learning animal interaction rules from fine scale recordings of animal movements in swarms. We apply these techniques to the inverse problem of inferring interaction rules from simulation models, showing that parameters can often be inferred from a small number of observations. Our methodology allows us to quantify our confidence in parameter fitting. For example, we show that attraction and alignment terms can be reliably estimated when animals are milling in a torus shape, while interaction radius cannot be reliably measured in such a situation. We assess the importance of rate of data collection and show how to test different models, such as topological and metric neighbourhood models. Taken together our results both inform the design of experiments on animal interactions and suggest how these data should be best analysed

Mathematical modelling plant signalling networks

During the last two decades, molecular genetic studies and the completion of the sequencing of the Arabidopsis thaliana genome have increased knowledge of hormonal regulation in plants. These signal transduction pathways act in concert through gene regulatory and signalling networks whose main components have begun to be elucidated. Our understanding of the resulting cellular processes is hindered by the complex, and sometimes counter-intuitive, dynamics of the networks, which may be interconnected through feedback controls and cross-regulation. Mathematical modelling provides a valuable tool to investigate such dynamics and to perform in silico experiments that may not be easily carried out in a laboratory. In this article, we firstly review general methods for modelling gene and signalling networks and their application in plants. We then describe specific models of hormonal perception and cross-talk in plants. This sub-cellular analysis paves the way for more comprehensive mathematical studies of hormonal transport and signalling in a multi-scale setting

A Multi-scale View of the Emergent Complexity of Life: A Free-energy Proposal

We review some of the main implications of the free-energy principle (FEP) for the study of the self-organization of living systems – and how the FEP can help us to understand (and model) biotic self-organization across the many temporal and spatial scales over which life exists. In order to maintain its integrity as a bounded system, any biological system - from single cells to complex organisms and societies - has to limit the disorder or dispersion (i.e., the long-run entropy) of its constituent states. We review how this can be achieved by living systems that minimize their variational free energy. Variational free energy is an information theoretic construct, originally introduced into theoretical neuroscience and biology to explain perception, action, and learning. It has since been extended to explain the evolution, development, form, and function of entire organisms, providing a principled model of biotic self-organization and autopoiesis. It has provided insights into biological systems across spatiotemporal scales, ranging from microscales (e.g., sub- and multicellular dynamics), to intermediate scales (e.g., groups of interacting animals and culture), through to macroscale phenomena (the evolution of entire species). A crucial corollary of the FEP is that an organism just is (i.e., embodies or entails) an implicit model of its environment. As such, organisms come to embody causal relationships of their ecological niche, which, in turn, is influenced by their resulting behaviors. Crucially, free-energy minimization can be shown to be equivalent to the maximization of Bayesian model evidence. This allows us to cast natural selection in terms of Bayesian model selection, providing a robust theoretical account of how organisms come to match or accommodate the spatiotemporal complexity of their surrounding niche. In line with the theme of this volume; namely, biological complexity and self-organization, this chapter will examine a variational approach to self-organization across multiple dynamical scales

Advocating better habitat use and selection models in bird ecology

Studies on habitat use and habitat selection represent a basic aspect of bird ecology, due to its importance in natural history, distribution, response to environmental changes, management and conservation. Basically, a statistical model that identifies environmental variables linked to a species presence is searched for. In this sense, there is a wide array of analytical methods that identify important explanatory variables within a model, with higher explanatory and predictive power than classical regression approaches. However, some of these powerful models are not widespread in ornithological studies, partly because of their complex theory, and in some cases, difficulties on their implementation and interpretation. Here, I describe generalized linear models and other five statistical models for the analysis of bird habitat use and selection outperforming classical approaches: generalized additive models, mixed effects models, occupancy models, binomial N-mixture models and decision trees (classification and regression trees, bagging, random forests and boosting). Each of these models has its benefits and drawbacks, but major advantages include dealing with non-normal distributions (presence-absence and abundance data typically found in habitat use and selection studies), heterogeneous variances, non-linear and complex relationships among variables, lack of statistical independence and imperfect detection. To aid ornithologists in making use of the methods described, a readable description of each method is provided, as well as a flowchart along with some recommendations to help them decide the most appropriate analysis. The use of these models in ornithological studies is encouraged, given their huge potential as statistical tools in bird ecology.Fil: Palacio, Facundo Xavier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. División Zoología de Vertebrados. Sección Ornitología; Argentin

Anticipatory Mobile Computing: A Survey of the State of the Art and Research Challenges

Today's mobile phones are far from mere communication devices they were ten years ago. Equipped with sophisticated sensors and advanced computing hardware, phones can be used to infer users' location, activity, social setting and more. As devices become increasingly intelligent, their capabilities evolve beyond inferring context to predicting it, and then reasoning and acting upon the predicted context. This article provides an overview of the current state of the art in mobile sensing and context prediction paving the way for full-fledged anticipatory mobile computing. We present a survey of phenomena that mobile phones can infer and predict, and offer a description of machine learning techniques used for such predictions. We then discuss proactive decision making and decision delivery via the user-device feedback loop. Finally, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of anticipatory mobile computing.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure