Generation and Evaluation of Space-Time Trajectories of Photovoltaic Power

In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However, many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing and capturing spatio-temporal dependencies in PV generation. Multivariate predictive distributions are modelled and space-time trajectories describing the potential evolution of forecast errors through successive lead-times and locations are generated. Discrimination ability of the relevant scoring rules on performance assessment of space-time trajectories of PV generation is also studied. Finally, the advantage of taking into account space-time correlations over probabilistic and point forecasts is investigated. The empirical investigation is based on the solar PV dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom) 2014.Comment: 33 pages, 11 Figure

Decoding information in the human hippocampus: a user's guide

Multi-voxel pattern analysis (MVPA), or 'decoding', of fMRI activity has gained popularity in the neuroimaging community in recent years. MVPA differs from standard fMRI analyses by focusing on whether information relating to specific stimuli is encoded in patterns of activity across multiple voxels. If a stimulus can be predicted, or decoded, solely from the pattern of fMRI activity, it must mean there is information about that stimulus represented in the brain region where the pattern across voxels was identified. This ability to examine the representation of information relating to specific stimuli (e.g., memories) in particular brain areas makes MVPA an especially suitable method for investigating memory representations in brain structures such as the hippocampus. This approach could open up new opportunities to examine hippocampal representations in terms of their content, and how they might change over time, with aging, and pathology. Here we consider published MVPA studies that specifically focused on the hippocampus, and use them to illustrate the kinds of novel questions that can be addressed using MVPA. We then discuss some of the conceptual and methodological challenges that can arise when implementing MVPA in this context. Overall, we hope to highlight the potential utility of MVPA, when appropriately deployed, and provide some initial guidance to those considering MVPA as a means to investigate the hippocampus

Real-time representations of the output gap

Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real-time measures and realizations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions; to generate appropriate forecasts that can deliver economically meaningful output trends and that can take into account the end-of-sample problems encountered in measuring these trends; and to calculate probability forecasts that convey in a clear way the uncertainties associated with the gap measures. The methods are applied to data for the United States 1965q4–2004q4, and the improvements over standard methods are illustrated

Improved γ\gamma/hadron separation for the detection of faint gamma-ray sources using boosted decision trees

Imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes record an enormous number of cosmic-ray background events. Suppressing these background events while retaining $\gamma$-rays is key to achieving good sensitivity to faint $\gamma$-ray sources. The differentiation between signal and background events can be accomplished using machine learning algorithms, which are already used in various fields of physics. Multivariate analyses combine several variables into a single variable that indicates the degree to which an event is $\gamma$-ray-like or cosmic-ray-like. In this paper we will focus on the use of boosted decision trees for $\gamma$/hadron separation. We apply the method to data from the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS), and demonstrate an improved sensitivity compared to the VERITAS standard analysis.Comment: accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physic