A Further Extension of Duration Dependent Models

The duration dependence of stock market cycles has been investigated using the Markov-switching model where the market conditions are unobservable. In the conventional modeling, restrictions are imposed that transition probability is a monotonic function of duration and the duration is truncated at a certain value. This paper proposes a model that is free from these arbitrary restrictions and nests the conventional models. In the model,the parameters that characterize the transition probability are formulated in the state space. Empirical results in several stock markets show that the duration structures differ greatly depending on countries. They are not necessarily monotonic functions of duration and, therefore, cannot be described by the conventional models.Duration, World stock markets, Markov-switching model, Nonparametric Model, Gibbs sampling, Marginal Likelihood

Preliminary study of creep thresholds and thermomechanical response in Haynes 188 at temperatures in the range 649 to 871 C

The following conclusions were drawn from this study of creep thresholds and thermomechanical response: (1) creep threshold can be determined using the latest electrohydraulic test equipment, providing that test durations are short and relatively large accumulations of creep strain are used in defining the threshold; (2) significant creep strains were measured under monotonic loading as stress levels as low as 4 ksi at temperatures predicted for solar receiver service; and (3) the material exhibited creep ratchetting during simulated service cycles, a result not predicted by analysis using current constitutive models for Haynes 188

Boom and Bust Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics during Reforestation

Legacies of historical land use strongly shape contemporary ecosystem dynamics. In old-field secondary forests, tree growth embodies a legacy of soil changes affected by previous cultivation. Three patterns of biomass accumulation during reforestation have been hypothesized previously, including monotonic to steady state, non-monotonic with a single peak then decay to steady state, and multiple oscillations around the steady state. In this paper, the conditions leading to the emergence of these patterns is analyzed. Using observations and models, we demonstrate that divergent reforestation patterns can be explained by contrasting time-scales in ecosystem carbon-nitrogen cycles that are influenced by land use legacies. Model analyses characterize non-monotonic plant-soil trajectories as either single peaks or multiple oscillations during an initial transient phase controlled by soil carbon-nitrogen conditions at the time of planting. Oscillations in plant and soil pools appear in modeled systems with rapid tree growth and low initial soil nitrogen, which stimulate nitrogen competition between trees and decomposers and lead the forest into a state of acute nitrogen deficiency. High initial soil nitrogen dampens oscillations, but enhances the magnitude of the tree biomass peak. These model results are supported by data derived from the long-running Calhoun Long-Term Soil-Ecosystem Experiment from 1957 to 2007. Observed carbon and nitrogen pools reveal distinct tree growth and decay phases, coincident with soil nitrogen depletion and partial re-accumulation. Further, contemporary tree biomass loss decreases with the legacy soil C:N ratio. These results support the idea that non-monotonic reforestation trajectories may result from initial transients in the plant-soil system affected by initial conditions derived from soil changes associated with land-use history

Existence and stability of overconsumption equilibria

Growth models with endogenous mortality assume generally that life expectancy is increasing with output per capita, and, thus, with individual consumption, whatever the consumption level is. However, empirical evidence on the effect of overconsumption and obesity on mortality tends to question that postulate. This paper develops a two-period OLG model where life expectancy is a non-monotonic function of consumption. The existence, uniqueness and stability of steady-state equilibria are studied. It is shown that overconsumption equilibria - i.e. equilibria at which consumption exceeds the level maximizing life expectancy - exist in highly productive economies with a low impatience. Stability analysis highlights conditions under which there exist non-converging cycles in output and longevity around overconsumption equilibria.longevity ; growth ; overconsumption ; obesity ; OLG model

Oscillatory secular modes: The thermal micropulses

Stars in the narrow mass range of about 2.5 and 3.5 solar masses can develop a thermally unstable He-burning shell during its ignition phase. We study, from the point of view secular stability theory, these so called thermal micropulses and we investigate their properties; the thermal pulses constitute a convenient conceptual laboratory to look thoroughly into the physical properties of a helium-burning shell during the whole thermally pulsing episode. Linear stability analyses were performed on a large number of 3 solar-mass star models at around the end of their core helium-burning and the beginning of the double-shell burning phase. The stellar models were not assumed to be in thermal equilibrium. The thermal mircopulses, and we conjecture all other thermal pulse episodes encountered by shell-burning stars, can be understood as the nonlinear finite-amplitude realization of an oscillatory secular instability that prevails during the whole thermal pulsing episode. Hence, the cyclic nature of the thermal pulses can be traced back to a linear instability concept.Comment: To be published - essentially footnote-free - in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Flexural response of polypropylene/E-glass fibre reinforced unidirectional composites

This paper presents a study of the flexural response of continuous E-glass fibre reinforced polypropylene composites. Experiments were designed to investigate monotonic and cyclic flexural response using three point bending test for laminates with different angle-ply and cross-ply arrangements. Results show that the monotonic and cyclic flexural response of the composites are influenced by the plastic deformation of the matrix. The study observed that increasing numbers of cyclic loads led to significant energy dissipation, stiffness reduction and micro-damage accumulation within the composite and especially at the matrix-fibre interface. Significant energy dissipation and damage were observed to dominate the first load-unload cycle. With subsequent cycles, the magnitude of energy dissipation and global damage reduces to a threshold value which is cycle independent. This study has also developed a phenomenological model to predict the dependence of energy dissipation with number of cycles. The experimental data generated here will be useful in the development of holistic macroscale constitutive models and finite element studies of the chosen test composite

Modelling of timber joints in traditional structures

Original unstrengthened timber connections and the effects of different strengthening techniques have been evaluated experimentally with tests on full-scale birdsmouth joints. Experimental results show that structural response of traditional timber connections under cyclic loading cannot be represented by common constraint models, like perfect hinges or rigid joints, but should be using semi-rigid and friction based models. A research program has investigated the behaviour of old timber joints and examined strengthening criteria. The main parameters affecting the mechanical behaviour of the connection have been singled out. A synthetic model of cyclic behaviour has been adapted on the basis of experimental results

RG flows, cycles, and c-theorem folklore

Monotonic renormalization group flows of the "c" and "a" functions are often cited as reasons why cyclic or chaotic coupling trajectories cannot occur. It is argued here, based on simple examples, that this is not necessarily true. Simultaneous monotonic and cyclic flows can be compatible if the flow-function is multi-valued in the couplings.Comment: 3 pages, 5 figure

On damping created by heterogeneous yielding in the numerical analysis of nonlinear reinforced concrete frame elements

In the dynamic analysis of structural engineering systems, it is common practice to introduce damping models to reproduce experimentally observed features. These models, for instance Rayleigh damping, account for the damping sources in the system altogether and often lack physical basis. We report on an alternative path for reproducing damping coming from material nonlinear response through the consideration of the heterogeneous character of material mechanical properties. The parameterization of that heterogeneity is performed through a stochastic model. It is shown that such a variability creates the patterns in the concrete cyclic response that are classically regarded as source of damping