Climate Mitigation, Deforestation and Human Development in Brazil

human development, climate change

Drought impacts assessment in Brazil - a remote sensing approach

Climate extremes are becoming more frequent in Brazil; studies project an increase in drought occurrences in many regions of the country. In the south, drought events lead to crop yield losses affecting the value chain and, therefore, the local economy. In the northeast, extended periods of drought lead to potential land degradation, affecting the livelihood and hindering local development. In the southern Amazon, an area that experienced intense land use change (LUC) in the last, the impacts are even more complex, ranging from crop yield loss and forest resilience loss, affecting ecosystem health and putting a threat on the native population traditional way of living. In the studies here we analyzed the drought impacts in these regions during the 2000s, which vary in nature and outcomes. We addressed some of the key problems in each of the three regions: i) for the southern agriculture, we tackled the problem of predicting soybean yield based on within-season remote sensing (RS) data, ii) in the northeast we mapped areas presenting trends of land degradation in the wake of an extended drought and, iii) in southern Amazon, we characterized a complex degradation cycle encompassing LUC, fire occurrence, forest resilience loss, carbon balance, and the interconnectedness of these factors impacting the local climate. Advisor: Brian D. Wardlo

The Evaporative Stress Index as an indicator of agricultural drought in Brazil: An assessment based on crop yield impacts

To effectively meet growing food demands, the global agronomic community will require a better understanding of factors that are currently limiting crop yields and where production can be viably expanded with minimal environmental consequences. Remote sensing can inform these analyses, providing valuable spatiotemporal information about yield-limiting moisture conditions and crop response under current climate conditions. In this paper we study correlations for the period 2003-2013 between yield estimates for major crops grown in Brazil and the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) - an indicator of agricultural drought that describes anomalies in the actual/reference evapotranspiration (ET) ratio, retrieved using remotely sensed inputs of land surface temperature (LST) and leaf area index (LAI). The strength and timing of peak ESI-yield correlations are compared with results using remotely sensed anomalies in water supply (rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission; TRMM) and biomass accumulation (LAI from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; MODIS). Correlation patterns were generally similar between all indices, both spatially and temporally, with the strongest correlations found in the south and northeast where severe flash droughts have occurred over the past decade, and where yield variability was the highest. Peak correlations tended to occur during sensitive crop growth stages. At the state scale, the ESI provided higher yield correlations for most crops and regions in comparison with TRMM and LAI anomalies. Using finer scale yield estimates reported at the municipality level, ESI correlations with soybean yields peaked higher and earlier by 10 to 25 days in comparison to TRMM and LAI, respectively. In most states, TRMM peak correlations were marginally higher on average with municipality-level annual corn yield estimates, although these estimates do not distinguish between primary and late season harvests. A notable exception occurred in the northeastern state of Bahia, where the ESI better captured effects of rapid cycling of moisture conditions on corn yields during a series of flash drought events. The results demonstrate that for monitoring agricultural drought in Brazil, value is added by combining LAI with LST indicators within a physically based model of crop water use. Published by Elsevier Inc.Embrapa Visiting Scientist Program ; Labex US, an international scientific cooperation program - Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation - Embrapa, ; United States Department of Agriculture (USDA

Climate Variability Poses a Correlated Risk to Global Food Production

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which refers to a coupling between equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmosphere anomalies, is a major source of interannual climate variability. Although it is fundamentally a tropical Pacific phenomena, both warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events alter atmospheric circulations -- and subsequently temperature and precipitation patterns -- well into the mid- latitudes. Furthermore, both El Niño and La Niña have characteristic multi-year life cycles of sea surface temperature and zonal wind anomalies. The research in this thesis focuses on understanding whether the global teleconnections and multi-year evolution of El Niño and La Niña imposes a risk of synchronous or sequential crop failures relevant to global food production. In the first chapter, which focuses on maize, wheat and soy in the Americas, we analyze the dynamics underlying ENSO life cycles to illustrate which aspects of the system are most important for agriculture. In North America, the same-season teleconnections affecting soybean and maize have been well studied, but we demonstrate the importance of lagged soil moisture teleconnections for wheat in the southern Great Plains. In South America, peak ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnections are concurrent with, and therefore critical for, wheat and maize growing seasons while soil moisture memory in Argentina plays an important role during the soybean growing season In the second chapter we show how the teleconnections from chapter one lead to correlated crop production anomalies in North and South America. We estimate the magnitude of ENSO-induced Pan-American production anomalies and discuss how increasing crop harvesting frequency may affect Pan-American production variability. We find that ENSO-induced production anomalies are greatest for maize, with median anomalies of about 5% of Pan-American production. After broadly characterizing ENSO-induced production anomalies, we demonstrate that they are not static in time. Increasing crop harvesting frequency in Brazil has affected the correlated risks posed by ENSO to soybeans and maize. In the third chapter we expand our analysis of agriculturally relevant teleconnections to the greater Pacific Basin region, and move beyond observations into model simulations. In this chapter we propose a coherent framework for understanding how trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to crop yields in major agricultural belts of the Americas, Australia and China over the course of an ENSO life cycle. The potential for consecutive ENSO-induced yield anomalies is of particular interest in these major food producing areas, where modest changes in yield have significant effects on global markets. We demonstrate that ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the following spring. These trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections are often (but not always) offsetting between major producing regions in the Americas and those in northern China or Australia. Multi-year La Niñas, however, only tend to force multi-year growing season anomalies in Argentina and Australia. In our final chapter we estimate of the relative contribution of major modes of climate variability to crop yield variability at the global scale. We consider the influence of not only ENSO, but also the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find that modes of climate variability account for 18.4%, 7.4% and 5.4% of globally aggregated maize, soy and wheat production variability, respectively. All modes of variability are important in at least one region studied, but only ENSO has a significant influence on global production. The low fractions of global-scale soy and wheat production variability attributable to climate is a result of significant but offsetting ENSO-induced yield anomalies in major production regions. Our findings represent an observationally-derived limit on the importance of climate variability to crop production stability that is not dependent on the fidelity of present generation of climate or crop models. In terms of synchronous crop failures within a single harvest year, we find that ENSO poses a significant correlated risk to maize yields but that it has a much smaller effect on global wheat and soy production. ENSO-forced maize production anomalies offset less than wheat and soy at the global scale because production is concentrated in regions with same-sign yield anomalies, notably the United States and Southeast Africa. To illustrate this point, we show that ENSO is largely responsible for the largest synchronous maize failure in the post-1960 historical record. These results demonstrate how the distribution of global cropland in relation to ENSO teleconnections contributes significantly to the presence for maize or absence for wheat and soy of synchronous global crop failure

The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture

Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projections of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When compared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes

Latin American and Caribbean Forests in the 2020s: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

This monograph presents expert assessments of four different facets of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) forests at the start of the 2020s. In Chapter 1, Dan Nepstad and coauthors distill lessons from case studies of the application of various approaches to forest conservation and restoration in four countries: Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru. In Chapter 2, Carlos Nobre and coauthors examine the two-way links between forests and climate change. They summarize what we know about the effects of climate change on forests and human migration in LAC, and the effects of forest loss and degradation on global and regional climate change. In addition, they present case studies of some of these links for Brazil and Costa Rica. In Chapter 3, Brent Sohngen explores LAC forest management, including LAC trends in international trade in timber and bioenergy, sustainable forest management, nontimber forest products, illegal logging, property rights, and climate change as it affects managed forests. In addition, Dr. Sohngen summarizes an original analysis of future timber supply potential using the Global Timber Model. Finally, in Chapter 4, Simone Bauch presents an analysis of the IADBGs experience with forest projects over the past 13 years. Having reviewed IADBG documents on all 99 forest projects approved by bank during this period and interviewed 23 current and former bank staff, Dr. Bauch presents a brief recent history of IADBG forest projects, an overview of the major determinants of project development, and an analysis of trends in forest projects, including their number, funding, objectives, themes, and locations. An Introduction by the editor, Allen Blackman, discusses the broad issues these expert assessment address and summarizes their key findings

Spreading of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Atlantic Ocean

This paper describes the transport of bottom water from its source region in the Weddell Sea through the abyssal channels of the Atlantic Ocean. The research brings together the recent observations and historical data. A strong flow of Antarctic Bottom Water through the Vema Channel is analyzed. The mean speed of the flow is 30 cm/s. A temperature increase was found in the deep Vema Channel, which has been observed for 30 years already. The flow of bottom water in the northern part of the Brazil Basin splits. Part of the water flows through the Romanche and Chain fracture zones. The other part flows to the North American Basin. Part of the latter flow propagates through the Vema Fracture Zone into the Northeast Atlantic. The properties of bottom water in the Kane Gap and Discovery Gap are also analyzed

Central and South America

The chapter is divided into two main sections. The first section follows an integrative approach in which hazards, exposure, vulnerability, impacts and risks are discussed following the eight climatically homogeneous sub-regions described in WGI AR6 (Figure 12.1). The second section assesses the implemented and proposed adaptation practices by sector; in doing so, it connects to the WGII AR6 crosschapter themes. The storyline is then a description of the hazards, exposure, vulnerability and impacts providing as much detail as is available in the literature at the sub-regional level, followed by the identification of risks as a result of the interaction of those aspects. This integrated sub-regional approach ensures a balance in the text, particularly for countries that are usually underrepresented in the literature but that show a high level of vulnerability and impacts, such as those observed in CA. The sectoral assessment of adaptation that follows is useful for policymakers and implementers, usually focused and organised by sectors, government ministries or secretaries that can easily locate the relevant adaptation information for their particular sector. To ensure coherence in the chapter, a summary of the assessed adaptation options by key risks is presented, followed by a feasibility assessment for some relevant adaptation options. The chapter closes with case studies and a discussion of the knowledge gaps evidenced in the process of the assessment.EEA Santa CruzFil: Castellanos, Edwin J. Universidad del Valle de Guatemala; Guatemala.Fil: Lemos, Maria Fernanda. Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro; Brasil.Fil: Astigarraga, Laura. Universidad de la República; Uruguay.Fil: Chacón, Noemí. Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas; Venezuela.Fil: Cuvi, Nicolás. Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO); Ecuador.Fil: Huggel, Christian. University of Zurich; Switzerland.Fil: Miranda Sara, Liliana Raquel. Foro Ciudades para la Vida; Peru.Fil: Moncassim Vale, Mariana. Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brasil.Fil: Ometto, Jean Pierre. National Institute for Space Research; Brasil.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Santa Cruz; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Postigo, Julio C. Indiana University; Estados Unidos.Fil: Ramajo Gallardo, Laura. Adolfo Ibanez University; Chile.Fil: Roco, Lisandro. Catholic University of The North; Chile.Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina

An HSUS Report: The Impact of Animal Agriculture on Global Warming and Climate Change

The farm animal production sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to soil degradation, dwindling water supplies, and air pollution. The breadth of this sector‘s impacts has been largely underappreciated. Meat, egg, and milk production are not narrowly focused on the rearing and slaughtering of farm animals. The animal agriculture sector also encompasses feed grain production which requires substantial water, energy, and chemical inputs, as well as energy expenditures to transport feed, live animals, and animal products. All of this comes at a substantial cost to the environment. One of animal agriculture‘s greatest environmental impacts is its contribution to global warming and climate change. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN), the animal agriculture sector is responsible for approximately 18%, or nearly one-fifth, of human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In nearly every step of meat, egg, and milk production, climate-changing gases are released into the atmosphere, potentially disrupting weather, temperature, and ecosystem health. Mitigating this serious problem requires immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns