Modelling the malware propagation in mobile computer devices

Nowadays malware is a major threat to the security of cyber activities. The rapid development of the Internet and the progressive implementation of the Internet of Things (IoT) increase the security needs of networks. This research presents a theoretical model of malware propagation for mobile computer devices. It is based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) epidemic model. The scheme is based on a concrete connection pattern between nodes defined by both a particular neighbourhood which fixes the connection between devices, and a local rule which sets whether the link is infective or not. The results corroborate the ability of our model to perform the behaviour patterns provided by the ordinary differential equation (ODE) traditional method

Un breve análisis de la diseminación de la información en redes informáticas a partir de modelos epidemiológicos

Currently one of the most valuable assets in computer networks is the data that travels through the various nodes that make up network topologies. In most cases, the presence of large volumes of data on the networks allows them to be damaged due to the alteration of the information by some type of virus, malware, or Trojan, which generates a spread of disease in the network. Faced with this situation, we propose the use of a classical model of infectious disease based on SEIRS, which allows us to propose a discrete space-time framework for the spread of the disease. Three types of connectivity are considered that are represented through a neighborhood relationship for which a grid of size n x n is used. The types of neighborhoods considered are those of Von Neumann, Moore, and L. Specifically, the use of local rules and the type of neighborhood define the dynamics of the spread of the infectious disease. Then we present an approach to the evolution of deterministic models of differential equations (ODE), such as the SIR and SEIRS models to estimate the parameters of this discrete model from data. We illustrate the proposed approach for computer network data using parametric data. More than that, the AIDS Epidemic in Cuba (1986-2000) and the Bubonic Plague Epidemic in India (1908) are successfully modeled from our approach. This work helps to graph equivalences between two conceptually different models and highlights that they give similar results when appropriately taking the values ​​of the parameters.Actualmente uno de los activos más valiosos en las redes informáticas son los datos que viajan a través de los diversos nodos que componen las topologías de redes. En la mayoría de los casos, la presencia de grandes volúmenes de datos en las redes, permiten que estos se dañen debido a la alteración de la información por algún tipo de virus, malware o troyano lo que genera en una propagación de una enfermedad en la red. Ante esta situación, planteamos el uso de un modelo clásico de enfermedad infecciosa basado en SEIRS, el cual permite plantear un marco de espacio – tiempo discreto para la expansión de la enfermedad. Se consideran tres tipos de conectividad que se representan a través de una relación de vecindad para la que se utiliza una rejilla de tamaño n x n. Los tipos de vecindario considerados son los de Von Neumann, Moore y L. Específicamente, el uso de reglas locales y el tipo de vecindario definen la dinámica de expansión de la enfermedad infecciosa. Luego presentamos un acercamiento a la evolución de modelos deterministas de ecuaciones diferenciales (ODE), como los modelos SIR y SEIRS para estimar los parámetros de este modelo discreto a partir de datos. Ilustramos el enfoque propuesto para los datos de las redes informáticas a partir de datos paramétricos. Más que eso, se modela con éxito, la Epidemia del SIDA en Cuba (1986-2000) y la Epidemia de la Peste bubónica en India (1908) desde nuestro enfoque. Este trabajo ayuda a graficar equivalencias entre dos modelos conceptualmente diferentes y destaca que dan resultados similares al tomar apropiadamente los valores de los parámetros

ENSURING SPECIFICATION COMPLIANCE, ROBUSTNESS, AND SECURITY OF WIRELESS NETWORK PROTOCOLS

Several newly emerged wireless technologies (e.g., Internet-of-Things, Bluetooth, NFC)—extensively backed by the tech industry—are being widely adopted and have resulted in a proliferation of diverse smart appliances and gadgets (e.g., smart thermostat, wearables, smartphones), which has ensuingly shaped our modern digital life. These technologies include several communication protocols that usually have stringent requirements stated in their specifications. Failing to comply with such requirements can result in incorrect behaviors, interoperability issues, or even security vulnerabilities. Moreover, lack of robustness of the protocol implementation to malicious attacks—exploiting subtle vulnerabilities in the implementation—mounted by the compromised nodes in an adversarial environment can limit the practical utility of the implementation by impairing the performance of the protocol and can even have detrimental effects on the availability of the network. Even having a compliant and robust implementation alone may not suffice in many cases because these technologies often expose new attack surfaces as well as new propagation vectors, which can be exploited by unprecedented malware and can quickly lead to an epidemic

Enhancing the diversity of self-replicating structures using active self-adapting mechanisms

Numerous varieties of life forms have filled the earth throughout evolution. Evolution consists of two processes: self-replication and interaction with the physical environment and other living things around it. Initiated by von Neumann et al. studies on self-replication in cellular automata have attracted much attention, which aim to explore the logical mechanism underlying the replication of living things. In nature, competition is a common and spontaneous resource to drive self-replications, whereas most cellular-automaton-based models merely focus on some self-protection mechanisms that may deprive the rights of other artificial life (loops) to live. Especially, Huang et al. designed a self-adaptive, self-replicating model using a greedy selection mechanism, which can increase the ability of loops to survive through an occasionally abandoning part of their own structural information, for the sake of adapting to the restricted environment. Though this passive adaptation can improve diversity, it is always limited by the loop’s original structure and is unable to evolve or mutate new genes in a way that is consistent with the adaptive evolution of natural life. Furthermore, it is essential to implement more complex self-adaptive evolutionary mechanisms not at the cost of increasing the complexity of cellular automata. To this end, this article proposes new self-adaptive mechanisms, which can change the information of structural genes and actively adapt to the environment when the arm of a self-replicating loop encounters obstacles, thereby increasing the chance of replication. Meanwhile, our mechanisms can also actively add a proper orientation to the current construction arm for the sake of breaking through the deadlock situation. Our new mechanisms enable active self-adaptations in comparison with the passive mechanism in the work of Huang et al. which is achieved by including a few rules without increasing the number of cell states as compared to the latter. Experiments demonstrate that this active self-adaptability can bring more diversity than the previous mechanism, whereby it may facilitate the emergence of various levels in self-replicating structures

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Novel Analytical Modelling-based Simulation of Worm Propagation in Unstructured Peer-to-Peer Networks

Millions of users world-wide are sharing content using Peer-to-Peer (P2P) networks, such as Skype and Bit Torrent. While such new innovations undoubtedly bring benefits, there are nevertheless some associated threats. One of the main hazards is that P2P worms can penetrate the network, even from a single node and then spread rapidly. Understanding the propagation process of such worms has always been a challenge for researchers. Different techniques, such as simulations and analytical models, have been adopted in the literature. While simulations provide results for specific input parameter values, analytical models are rather more general and potentially cover the whole spectrum of given parameter values. Many attempts have been made to model the worm propagation process in P2P networks. However, the reported analytical models to-date have failed to cover the whole spectrum of all relevant parameters and have therefore resulted in high false-positives. This consequently affects the immunization and mitigation strategies that are adopted to cope with an outbreak of worms. The first key contribution of this thesis is the development of a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) analytical model for the worm propagation process in a P2P network, taking into account different factors such as the configuration diversity of nodes, user behaviour and the infection time-lag. These factors have not been considered in an integrated form previously and have been either ignored or partially addressed in state-of-the-art analytical models. Our proposed SEIR analytical model holistically integrates, for the first time, these key factors in order to capture a more realistic representation of the whole worm propagation process. The second key contribution is the extension of the proposed SEIR model to the mobile M-SEIR model by investigating and incorporating the role of node mobility, the size of the worm and the bandwidth of wireless links in the worm propagation process in mobile P2P networks. The model was designed to be flexible and applicable to both wired and wireless nodes. The third contribution is the exploitation of a promising modelling paradigm, Agent-based Modelling (ABM), in the P2P worm modelling context. Specifically, to exploit the synergies between ABM and P2P, an integrated ABM-Based worm propagation model has been built and trialled in this research for the first time. The introduced model combines the implementation of common, complex P2P protocols, such as Gnutella and GIA, along with the aforementioned analytical models. Moreover, a comparative evaluation between ABM and conventional modelling tools has been carried out, to demonstrate the key benefits of ease of real-time analysis and visualisation. As a fourth contribution, the research was further extended by utilizing the proposed SEIR model to examine and evaluate a real-world data set on one of the most recent worms, namely, the Conficker worm. Verification of the model was achieved using ABM and conventional tools and by then comparing the results on the same data set with those derived from developed benchmark models. Finally, the research concludes that the worm propagation process is to a great extent affected by different factors such as configuration diversity, user-behaviour, the infection time lag and the mobility of nodes. It was found that the infection propagation values derived from state-of-the-art mathematical models are hypothetical and do not actually reflect real-world values. In summary, our comparative research study has shown that infection propagation can be reduced due to the natural immunity against worms that can be provided by a holistic exploitation of the range of factors proposed in this work

High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications

This open access book was prepared as a Final Publication of the COST Action IC1406 “High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet)“ project. Long considered important pillars of the scientific method, Modelling and Simulation have evolved from traditional discrete numerical methods to complex data-intensive continuous analytical optimisations. Resolution, scale, and accuracy have become essential to predict and analyse natural and complex systems in science and engineering. When their level of abstraction raises to have a better discernment of the domain at hand, their representation gets increasingly demanding for computational and data resources. On the other hand, High Performance Computing typically entails the effective use of parallel and distributed processing units coupled with efficient storage, communication and visualisation systems to underpin complex data-intensive applications in distinct scientific and technical domains. It is then arguably required to have a seamless interaction of High Performance Computing with Modelling and Simulation in order to store, compute, analyse, and visualise large data sets in science and engineering. Funded by the European Commission, cHiPSet has provided a dynamic trans-European forum for their members and distinguished guests to openly discuss novel perspectives and topics of interests for these two communities. This cHiPSet compendium presents a set of selected case studies related to healthcare, biological data, computational advertising, multimedia, finance, bioinformatics, and telecommunications

High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications

This open access book was prepared as a Final Publication of the COST Action IC1406 “High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet)“ project. Long considered important pillars of the scientific method, Modelling and Simulation have evolved from traditional discrete numerical methods to complex data-intensive continuous analytical optimisations. Resolution, scale, and accuracy have become essential to predict and analyse natural and complex systems in science and engineering. When their level of abstraction raises to have a better discernment of the domain at hand, their representation gets increasingly demanding for computational and data resources. On the other hand, High Performance Computing typically entails the effective use of parallel and distributed processing units coupled with efficient storage, communication and visualisation systems to underpin complex data-intensive applications in distinct scientific and technical domains. It is then arguably required to have a seamless interaction of High Performance Computing with Modelling and Simulation in order to store, compute, analyse, and visualise large data sets in science and engineering. Funded by the European Commission, cHiPSet has provided a dynamic trans-European forum for their members and distinguished guests to openly discuss novel perspectives and topics of interests for these two communities. This cHiPSet compendium presents a set of selected case studies related to healthcare, biological data, computational advertising, multimedia, finance, bioinformatics, and telecommunications

Implementation of Sensors and Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Hazards Assessment in Urban, Agriculture and Forestry Systems

The implementation of artificial intelligence (AI), together with robotics, sensors, sensor networks, Internet of Things (IoT), and machine/deep learning modeling, has reached the forefront of research activities, moving towards the goal of increasing the efficiency in a multitude of applications and purposes related to environmental sciences. The development and deployment of AI tools requires specific considerations, approaches, and methodologies for their effective and accurate applications. This Special Issue focused on the applications of AI to environmental systems related to hazard assessment in urban, agriculture, and forestry areas