Modeling Temporal Evolution and Multiscale Structure in Networks

Many real-world networks exhibit both temporal evolution and multiscale structure. We propose a model for temporally correlated multifurcating hierarchies in complex networks which jointly capture both effects. We use the Gibbs fragmentation tree as prior over multifurcating trees and a change-point model to account for the temporal evolution of each vertex. We demonstrate that our model is able to infer time-varying multiscale structure in synthetic as well as three real world time-evolving complex networks. Our modeling of the temporal evolution of hierarchies brings new insights into the changing roles and position of entities and possibilities for better understanding these dynamic complex systems. 1

Generalised additive multiscale wavelet models constructed using particle swarm optimisation and mutual information for spatio-temporal evolutionary system representation

A new class of generalised additive multiscale wavelet models (GAMWMs) is introduced for high dimensional spatio-temporal evolutionary (STE) system identification. A novel two-stage hybrid learning scheme is developed for constructing such an additive wavelet model. In the first stage, a new orthogonal projection pursuit (OPP) method, implemented using a particle swarm optimisation(PSO) algorithm, is proposed for successively augmenting an initial coarse wavelet model, where relevant parameters of the associated wavelets are optimised using a particle swarm optimiser. The resultant network model, obtained in the first stage, may however be a redundant model. In the second stage, a forward orthogonal regression (FOR) algorithm, implemented using a mutual information method, is then applied to refine and improve the initially constructed wavelet model. The proposed two-stage hybrid method can generally produce a parsimonious wavelet model, where a ranked list of wavelet functions, according to the capability of each wavelet to represent the total variance in the desired system output signal is produced. The proposed new modelling framework is applied to real observed images, relative to a chemical reaction exhibiting a spatio-temporal evolutionary behaviour, and the associated identification results show that the new modelling framework is applicable and effective for handling high dimensional identification problems of spatio-temporal evolution sytems

A new class of multiscale lattice cell (MLC) models for spatio-temporal evolutionary image representation

Spatio-temporal evolutionary (STE) images are a class of complex dynamical systems that evolve over both space and time. With increased interest in the investigation of nonlinear complex phenomena, especially spatio-temporal behaviour governed by evolutionary laws that are dependent on both spatial and temporal dimensions, there has been an increased need to investigate model identification methods for this class of complex systems. Compared with pure temporal processes, the identification of spatio-temporal models from observed images is much more difficult and quite challenging. Starting with an assumption that there is no apriori information about the true model but only observed data are available, this study introduces a new class of multiscale lattice cell (MLC) models to represent the rules of the associated spatio-temporal evolutionary system. An application to a chemical reaction exhibiting a spatio-temporal evolutionary behaviour, is investigated to demonstrate the new modelling framework

Equation-Free Multiscale Computational Analysis of Individual-Based Epidemic Dynamics on Networks

The surveillance, analysis and ultimately the efficient long-term prediction and control of epidemic dynamics appear to be one of the major challenges nowadays. Detailed atomistic mathematical models play an important role towards this aim. In this work it is shown how one can exploit the Equation Free approach and optimization methods such as Simulated Annealing to bridge detailed individual-based epidemic simulation with coarse-grained, systems-level, analysis. The methodology provides a systematic approach for analyzing the parametric behavior of complex/ multi-scale epidemic simulators much more efficiently than simply simulating forward in time. It is shown how steady state and (if required) time-dependent computations, stability computations, as well as continuation and numerical bifurcation analysis can be performed in a straightforward manner. The approach is illustrated through a simple individual-based epidemic model deploying on a random regular connected graph. Using the individual-based microscopic simulator as a black box coarse-grained timestepper and with the aid of Simulated Annealing I compute the coarse-grained equilibrium bifurcation diagram and analyze the stability of the stationary states sidestepping the necessity of obtaining explicit closures at the macroscopic level under a pairwise representation perspective

Data-driven modelling of biological multi-scale processes

Biological processes involve a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A holistic understanding of many biological processes therefore requires multi-scale models which capture the relevant properties on all these scales. In this manuscript we review mathematical modelling approaches used to describe the individual spatial scales and how they are integrated into holistic models. We discuss the relation between spatial and temporal scales and the implication of that on multi-scale modelling. Based upon this overview over state-of-the-art modelling approaches, we formulate key challenges in mathematical and computational modelling of biological multi-scale and multi-physics processes. In particular, we considered the availability of analysis tools for multi-scale models and model-based multi-scale data integration. We provide a compact review of methods for model-based data integration and model-based hypothesis testing. Furthermore, novel approaches and recent trends are discussed, including computation time reduction using reduced order and surrogate models, which contribute to the solution of inference problems. We conclude the manuscript by providing a few ideas for the development of tailored multi-scale inference methods.Comment: This manuscript will appear in the Journal of Coupled Systems and Multiscale Dynamics (American Scientific Publishers

Multiscale mobility networks and the large scale spreading of infectious diseases

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In order to study the interplay between small-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of a global epidemic we i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms; ii) integrate in a worldwide structured metapopulation epidemic model a time-scale separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short range mobility increases however the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multi-scale framework.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

A Review of Mathematical Models for the Formation of\ud Vascular Networks

Mainly two mechanisms are involved in the formation of blood vasculature: vasculogenesis and angiogenesis. The former consists of the formation of a capillary-like network from either a dispersed or a monolayered population of endothelial cells, reproducible also in vitro by specific experimental assays. The latter consists of the sprouting of new vessels from an existing capillary or post-capillary venule. Similar phenomena are also involved in the formation of the lymphatic system through a process generally called lymphangiogenesis.\ud \ud A number of mathematical approaches have analysed these phenomena. This paper reviews the different modelling procedures, with a special emphasis on their ability to reproduce the biological system and to predict measured quantities which describe the overall processes. A comparison between the different methods is also made, highlighting their specific features