A Mathematical Study on the Dynamics of an Eco-Epidemiological Model in the Presence of Delay

In the present work a mathematical model of the prey-predator system with disease in the prey is proposed. The basic model is then modified by the introduction of time delay. The stability of the boundary and endemic equilibria are discussed. The stability and bifurcation analysis of the resulting delay differential equation model is studied and ranges of the delay inducing stability as well as the instability for the system are found. Using the normal form theory and center manifold argument, we derive the methodical formulae for determining the bifurcation direction and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solution. Some numerical simulations are carried out to explain our theoretical analysis

Stability analysis of an eco-epidemiological model incorporating a prey refuge

The present paper deals with the problem of a predator-prey model incorporating a prey refuge with disease in the prey-population. We assume the predator population will prefer only infected population for their diet as those are more vulnerable. Dynamical behaviours such as boundedness, permanence, local and global stabilities are addressed. We have also studied the effect of discrete time delay on the model. The length of delay preserving the stability is also estimated. Computer simulations are carried out to illustrate our analytical findings

Controllability of an eco-epidemiological system with disease transmission delay: A theoretical study

This paper deals with the qualitative analysis of a disease transmission delay induced prey preda-tor system in which disease spreads among the predator species only. The growth of the preda-tors’ susceptible and infected subpopulations is assumed as modified Leslie–Gower type. Suffi-cient conditions for the persistence, permanence, existence and stability of equilibrium points are obtained. Global asymptotic stability of the system is investigated around the coexisting equilib-rium using a geometric approach. The existence of Hopf bifurcation phenomenon is also exam-ined with respect to some important parameters of the system. The criterion for disease a trans-mission delay the induced Hopf bifurcation phenomenon is obtained and subsequently, we use a normal form method and the center manifold theorem to examine the nature of the Hopf bifurca-tion. It is clearly observed that competition among predators can drive the system to a stable from an unstable state. Also the infection and competition among predator population enhance the availability of prey for harvesting when their values are high. Finally, some numerical simu-lations are carried out to illustrate the analytical results

Analysis of stability and Hopf bifurcation for an eco-epidemiological model with distributed delay

In this paper, the dynamical behavior of an eco-epidemiological model with distributed delay is studied. Sufficient conditions for the asymptotical stability of all the equilibria are obtained. We prove that there exists a threshold value of the infection rate $b$ beyond which the positive equilibrium bifurcates towards a periodic solution. We further analyze the orbital stability of the periodic orbits arising from bifurcation by applying Poore's condition. Numerical simulation with some hypothetical sets of data has been done to support the analytical findings

Modeling highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in wild birds and poultry in West Bengal, India.

Wild birds are suspected to have played a role in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in West Bengal. Cluster analysis showed that H5N1 was introduced in West Bengal at least 3 times between 2008 and 2010. We simulated the introduction of H5N1 by wild birds and their contact with poultry through a stochastic continuous-time mathematical model. Results showed that reducing contact between wild birds and domestic poultry, and increasing the culling rate of infected domestic poultry communities will reduce the probability of outbreaks. Poultry communities that shared habitat with wild birds or those indistricts with previous outbreaks were more likely to suffer an outbreak. These results indicate that wild birds can introduce HPAI to domestic poultry and that limiting their contact at shared habitats together with swift culling of infected domestic poultry can greatly reduce the likelihood of HPAI outbreaks

A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives

There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the presence of asymptomatic, or however undetected, infective, and the substantially long time these spend being infective and not isolated. We discuss how a SIR-based prediction of the epidemic course based on early data but not taking into account the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives would give wrong estimate of very relevant quantities such as the need of hospital beds, the time to the epidemic peak, and the number of people which are left untouched by the first wave and thus in danger in case of a second epidemic wave. In the second part of the note, we apply our model to the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy. We obtain a good agreement with epidemiological data; according to the best fit of epidemiological data in terms of this model, only 10\% of infectives in Italy is symptomatic.Comment: V4 (hopefully final) contains analysis of data up to May 15, 202

Dynamical Behavior of an Eco-epidemiological Model Incorporating Prey Refuge and Prey Harvesting

In this paper an eco-epidemiological model incorporating a prey refuge and prey harvesting with disease in the prey-population is considered. Predators are assumed to consume both the susceptible and infected prey at different rates. The positivity and boundedness of the solution of the system are discussed. The existence and stability of the biologically feasible equilibrium points are investigated. Numerical simulations are performed to support our analytical findings

Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil.

IntroductionCutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions.Methodology/principal findingsWe fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation.SignificanceThese outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets