Machine-learning-based calving prediction from activity, lying, and ruminating behaviors in dairy cattle

The objective of this study was to use automated activity, lying, and rumination monitors to characterize prepartum behavior and predict calving in dairy cattle. Data were collected from 20 primiparous and 33 multiparous Holstein dairy cattle from September 2011 to May 2013 at the University of Kentucky Coldstream Dairy. The HR Tag (SCR Engineers Ltd., Netanya, Israel) automatically collected neck activity and rumination data in 2-h increments. The IceQube (IceRobotics Ltd., South Queensferry, United Kingdom) automatically collected number of steps, lying time, standing time, number of transitions from standing to lying (ly-. ing bouts), and total motion, summed in 15-min increments. IceQube data were summed in 2-h increments to match HR Tag data. All behavioral data were collected for 14 d before the predicted calving date. Retrospective data analysis was performed using mixed linear models to examine behavioral changes by day in the 14 d before calving. Bihourly behavioral differences from baseline values over the 14 d before calving were also evaluated using mixed linear models. Changes in daily rumination time, total motion, lying time, and lying bouts occurred in the 14 d before calving. In the bihourly analysis, extreme values for all behaviors occurred in the final 24 h, indicating that the monitored behaviors may be useful in calving prediction. To determine whether technologies were useful at predicting calving, random forest, linear discriminant analysis, and neural network machine -learning techniques were constructed and implemented using R version 3.1.0 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). These methods were used on variables from each technology and all combined variables from both technologies. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies at the daily level yielded 100.0% sen-sitivity and 86.8% specificity. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies in bihourly increments was used to identify 2-h periods in the 8 h before calving with 82.8% sensitivity and 80.4% specificity. Changes in behavior and machine-learning alerts indicate that commercially marketed behavioral monitors may have calving prediction potential

LSTM Models to Support the Selective Antibiotic Treatment Strategy of Dairy Cows in the Dry Period

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Data ScienceUdder inflammation, known as mastitis, is the most significant disease of dairy cows worldwide, invoking substantial economic losses. The current common strategy to reduce this problem is the prophylactic administration of antibiotics treatment of cows during their dry period. Paradoxically, the indiscriminate use of antibiotics in animals and humans has been the leading cause of antimicrobial resistance, a concern in several public health organizations. In light of these assumptions, at the beginning of 2022, the European Union made it illegal to routinely administer antibiotics on farms, with Regulation 2019/6 of 11 December 2018. Considering this new scenario, the objective of this study was to produce a model that supports the decisions of veterinarians when administering antibiotics in the dry period of dairy cows. Deep learning models were used, namely LSTM layers that operate with dynamic features from milk recordings and a dense layer that uses static features. Two approaches were chosen to deal with this problem. The first is based on a binary classification model that considers the occurrence of mastitis within 60 days after calving. The second approach was a multiclass classification model based on veterinary expert judgment. In each approach, three models were implemented, a Vanilla LSTM, a Stacked LSTM, and a Stacked LSTM with a dense layer working in parallel. The best performances from binary and multiclass approaches were 65% and 84% accuracy, respectively. It was possible to conclude that the models of the multiclass classification approach had better performance than the other classification. The capture of long- and short-term dependencies in the LSTM models, especially with the combination of static features, obtained promising results, which will undoubtedly contribute to producing a machine learning system with a prompt and affordable response, allowing for a reduction in the administration of antibiotics in dairy cows to the strictly necessary

Indicators of mastitis and milk quality in dairy cows : data, modeling, and prediction in automatic milking systems

Methods for generating predictions of important and generally accepted indicators of udder inflammation and poor milk quality, such as somatic cell count (SCC) or changes in milk homogeneity, are few. The aim of this thesis was to investigate methods to identify indicators of mastitis and poor milk quality in dairy cows using data generated by automatic milking systems (AMS). The first part of the project investigated the relationship between SCC and data regularly recorded by the AMS using models that could capture nonlinear associations between the explanatory variables and the outcome. This information could be used in modeling the SCC. Furthermore, three statistical methods, generalized additive model, random forest and multilayer perceptron, were compared for their ability to predict SCC using data generated by the AMS. The results showed that equally low prediction error was obtained using generalized additive model or multilayer perceptron for prediction of SCC based on AMS data. The second part explored the dynamics of changes in milk homogeneity in cows milked in AMS using descriptive statistics for clots collected by inline filters, scored for density. Clots were found among certain cows and cow periods and appeared in new quarters over time. Models were fitted for detecting and predicting clots in single cow milkings as well as for detecting clots in milkings over a longer period. The models successfully distinguished periods of milking free of changes in milk homogeneity, although the detection and prediction performance was poor. The prediction target and severity grade of each density category is discussed

Detecting and predicting changes in milk homogeneity using data from automatic milking systems

To ensure milk quality and detect cows with signs of mastitis, visual inspection of milk by prestripping quarters before milking is recommended in many countries. An objective method to find milk changed in homogeneity (i.e., with clots) is to use commercially available inline filters to inspect the milk. Due to the required manual labor, this method is not applicable in automatic milking systems (AMS). We investigated the possibility of detecting and predicting changes in milk homogeneity using data generated by AMS. In total, 21,335 quarter-level milk inspections were performed on 5,424 milkings of 624 unique cows on 4 farms by applying visual inspection of inline filters that assembled clots from the separate quarters during milking. Images of the filters with clots were scored for density, resulting in 892 observations with signs of clots for analysis (77% traces or mild cases, 15% moderate cases, and 8% heavy cases). The quarter density scores were combined into 1 score indicating the presence of clots during a single cow milking and into 2 scores summarizing the density scores in cow milkings during a 30-h sampling period. Data generated from the AMS, such as milk yield, milk flow, conductivity, and online somatic cell counts, were used as input to 4 multilayer perceptron models to detect or predict single milkings with clots and to detect milking periods with clots. All models resulted in high specificity (98-100%), showing that the models correctly classified cow milkings or cow milking periods with no clots observed. The ability to successfully classify cow milkings or cow periods with observed clots had a low sensitivity. The highest sensitivity (26%) was obtained by the model that detected clots in a single milking. The prevalence of clots in the data was low (2.4%), which was reflected in the results. The positive predictive value depends on the prevalence and was relatively high, with the highest positive predictive value (72%) reached in the model that detected clots during the 30-h sampling periods. The misclassification rate for cow milkings that included higher-density scores was lower, indicating that the models that detected or predicted clots in a single milking could better distinguish the heavier cases of clots. Using data from AMS to detect and predict changes in milk homogeneity seems to be possible, although the prediction performance for the definitions of clots used in this study was poor

Bayesian integration of sensor information and a multivariate dynamic linear model for prediction of dairy cow mastitis

AbstractRapid detection of dairy cow mastitis is important so corrective action can be taken as soon as possible. Automatically collected sensor data used to monitor the performance and the health state of the cow could be useful for rapid detection of mastitis while reducing the labor needs for monitoring. The state of the art in combining sensor data to predict clinical mastitis still does not perform well enough to be applied in practice. Our objective was to combine a multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) with a naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC) in a novel method using sensor and nonsensor data to detect clinical cases of mastitis. We also evaluated reductions in the number of sensors for detecting mastitis. With the DLM, we co-modeled 7 sources of sensor data (milk yield, fat, protein, lactose, conductivity, blood, body weight) collected at each milking for individual cows to produce one-step-ahead forecasts for each sensor. The observations were subsequently categorized according to the errors of the forecasted values and the estimated forecast variance. The categorized sensor data were combined with other data pertaining to the cow (week in milk, parity, mastitis history, somatic cell count category, and season) using Bayes’ theorem, which produced a combined probability of the cow having clinical mastitis. If this probability was above a set threshold, the cow was classified as mastitis positive. To illustrate the performance of our method, we used sensor data from 1,003,207 milkings from the University of Florida Dairy Unit collected from 2008 to 2014. Of these, 2,907 milkings were associated with recorded cases of clinical mastitis. Using the DLM/NBC method, we reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89, with a specificity of 0.81 when the sensitivity was set at 0.80. Specificities with omissions of sensor data ranged from 0.58 to 0.81. These results are comparable to other studies, but differences in data quality, definitions of clinical mastitis, and time windows make comparisons across studies difficult. We found the DLM/NBC method to be a flexible method for combining multiple sensor and nonsensor data sources to predict clinical mastitis and accommodate missing observations. Further research is needed before practical implementation is possible. In particular, the performance of our method needs to be improved in the first 2 wk of lactation. The DLM method produces forecasts that are based on continuously estimated multivariate normal distributions, which makes forecasts and forecast errors easy to interpret, and new sensors can easily be added

The use of artificial neural networks to diagnose mastitis in dairy cattle

The use of milk sample categorization for diagnosing mastitis using Kohonen's self-organizing feature map (SOFM) is reported. Milk trait data of 14 weeks of milking from commercial dairy cows in New Zealand was used to train and test a SOFM network. The SOFM network was useful in discriminating data patterns into four separate mastitis categories. Several other artificial neural networks were tested to predict the missing data from the recorded milk traits. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network proved to be most accurate (R² = 0.84, r = 0.92) when compared to other MLP (R² = 0.83, r = 0.92), Elman (R² = 0.80, r = 0.92), Jordan (R² = 0.81, r = 0.92) or linear regression (R² = 0.72, r = 0.85) methods. It is concluded that the SOFM can be used as a decision tool for the dairy farmer to reduce the incidence of mastitis in the dairy herd

Point-of-care tests for bovine clinical mastitis: what do we have and what do we need?

Mastitis, inflammation of the bovine mammary gland, is generally caused by intramammary infection with bacteria, and antimicrobials have long been a corner stone of mastitis control. As societal concern about antimicrobial use in animal agriculture grows, there is pressure to reduce antimicrobial use in dairy farming. Point-of-care tests for on-farm use are increasingly available as tools to support this. In this Research Reflection, we consider available culture-dependent and culture-independent tests in the context of ASSURED criteria for low-resource settings, including convenience criteria, scientific criteria and societal criteria that can be used to evaluate test performance. As tests become more sophisticated and sensitive, we may be generating more data than we need. Special attention is given to the relationship between test outcomes and treatment decisions, including issues of diagnostic refinement, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, and detection of viable organisms. In addition, we explore the role of technology, big data and people in improved performance and uptake of point-of-care tests, recognising that societal barriers may limit uptake of available or future tests. Finally, we propose that the 3Rs of reduction, refinement and replacement, which have been used in an animal welfare context for many years, could be applied to antimicrobial use for mastitis control on dairy farms