Dynamic Reliability Models for Multiple Dependent Competing Degradation Processes

International audienceThis paper presents a holistic treatment to multiple dependent competing degradation processes, by employing the piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP) modeling framework. The proposed method can handle the dependencies between physics-based models, between multi-state models and between these two types of models. A Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is developed to compute the components/systems reliability. A case study on one subsystem of the residual heat removal system (RHRS) of a nuclear power plant is illustrated

Fuzzy Reliability Assessment of Systems with Multiple Dependent Competing Degradation Processes

International audienceComponents are often subject to multiple competing degradation processes. For multi-component systems, the degradation dependency within one component or/and among components need to be considered. Physics-based models (PBMs) and multi-state models (MSMs) are often used for component degradation processes, particularly when statistical data are limited. In this paper, we treat dependencies between degradation processes within a piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP) modeling framework. Epistemic (subjective) uncertainty can arise due to the incomplete or imprecise knowledge about the degradation processes and the governing parameters: to take into account this, we describe the parameters of the PDMP model as fuzzy numbers. Then, we extend the finite-volume (FV) method to quantify the (fuzzy) reliability of the system. The proposed method is tested on one subsystem of the residual heat removal system (RHRS) of a nuclear power plant, and a comparison is offered with a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation solution: the results show that our method can be most efficient

Asset management of energy company based on risk-oriented strategy

Repairs and maintenance of energy assets can be carried out in a variety of ways, which are usually based on indicators of reliability and efficiency. Due to the transition to a digital energy paradigm and implementation of intelligent diagnostic tools for technical condition of the equipment, it is advisable to carry out asset management with additional tools to consider operational and economic risks, as well as to predict the integrated efficiency of energy objects. This paper presents an overview of progressive strategies for energy asset management currently used in global practice. The analysis of approaches to asset management developed by one of the largest Russian generating and grid utilities is carried out. The authors developed several methodological recommendations for the identification of priority objects for technical maintenance and repair, ranked based on the type of equipment, risk of failure, predictiveness of defects, the undersupply of energy in emergency situations, types and cost of remediation and reputation losses of the energy business. Proposals for energy companies to implement a risk-based assets management strategy in units operating energy facilities are formulated. © 2020 WIT Press.The work was supported by Act 211 of Government of the Russian Federation, contract No. 02.A03.21.0006

State of the art in simulation-based optimisation for maintenance systems

Recently, more attention has been directed towards improving and optimising maintenance in manufacturing systems using simulation. This paper aims to report the state of the art in simulation-based optimisation of maintenance by systematically classifying the published literature and outlining main trends in modelling and optimising maintenance systems. The authors investigate application areas and published real case studies as well as researched maintenance strategies and policies. Much of the research in this area is focusing on preventive maintenance and optimising preventive maintenance frequency that will lead to the minimum cost. Discrete event simulation was the most reported technique to model maintenance systems whereas modern optimisation methods such as Genetic Algorithms was the most reported optimisation method in the literature. On this basis, the paper identifies the current gaps and discusses future prospects. Further research can be done to develop a framework that guides the experimenting process with different maintenance strategies and policies. More real case studies can be conducted on multi-objective optimisation and condition based maintenance especially in a production context

On fault propagation in deterioration of multi-component systems

In extant literature, deterioration dependence among components can be modelled as inherent dependence and induced dependence. We find that the two types of dependence may co-exist and interact with each other in one multi-component system. We refer to this phenomenon as fault propagation. In practice, a fault induced by the malfunction of a non-critical component may further propagate through the dependence amongst critical components. Such fault propagation scenario happens in industrial assets or systems (bridge deck, and heat exchanging system). In this paper, a multi-layered vector-valued continuous-time Markov chain is developed to capture the characteristics of fault propagation. To obtain the mathematical tractability, we derive a partitioning rule to aggregate states with the same characteristics while keeping the overall aging behaviour of the multi-component system. Although the detailed information of components is masked by aggregated states, lumpability is attainable with the partitioning rule. It means that the aggregated process is stochastically equivalent to the original one and retains the Markov property. We apply this model on a heat exchanging system in oil refinery company. The results show that fault propagation has a more significant impact on the system's lifetime comparing with inherent dependence and induced dependence

Un cadre holistique de la modélisation de la dégradation pour l’analyse de fiabilité et optimisation de la maintenance de systèmes de sécurité nucléaires

Components of nuclear safety systems are in general highly reliable, which leads to a difficulty in modeling their degradation and failure behaviors due to the limited amount of data available. Besides, the complexity of such modeling task is increased by the fact that these systems are often subject to multiple competing degradation processes and that these can be dependent under certain circumstances, and influenced by a number of external factors (e.g. temperature, stress, mechanical shocks, etc.). In this complicated problem setting, this PhD work aims to develop a holistic framework of models and computational methods for the reliability-based analysis and maintenance optimization of nuclear safety systems taking into account the available knowledge on the systems, degradation and failure behaviors, their dependencies, the external influencing factors and the associated uncertainties.The original scientific contributions of the work are: (1) For single components, we integrate random shocks into multi-state physics models for component reliability analysis, considering general dependencies between the degradation and two types of random shocks. (2) For multi-component systems (with a limited number of components):(a) a piecewise-deterministic Markov process modeling framework is developed to treat degradation dependency in a system whose degradation processes are modeled by physics-based models and multi-state models; (b) epistemic uncertainty due to incomplete or imprecise knowledge is considered and a finite-volume scheme is extended to assess the (fuzzy) system reliability; (c) the mean absolute deviation importance measures are extended for components with multiple dependent competing degradation processes and subject to maintenance; (d) the optimal maintenance policy considering epistemic uncertainty and degradation dependency is derived by combining finite-volume scheme, differential evolution and non-dominated sorting differential evolution; (e) the modeling framework of (a) is extended by including the impacts of random shocks on the dependent degradation processes.(3) For multi-component systems (with a large number of components), a reliability assessment method is proposed considering degradation dependency, by combining binary decision diagrams and Monte Carlo simulation to reduce computational costs.Composants de systèmes de sûreté nucléaire sont en général très fiable, ce qui conduit à une difficulté de modéliser leurs comportements de dégradation et d'échec en raison de la quantité limitée de données disponibles. Par ailleurs, la complexité de cette tâche de modélisation est augmentée par le fait que ces systèmes sont souvent l'objet de multiples processus concurrents de dégradation et que ceux-ci peut être dépendants dans certaines circonstances, et influencé par un certain nombre de facteurs externes (par exemple la température, le stress, les chocs mécaniques, etc.).Dans ce cadre de problème compliqué, ce travail de thèse vise à développer un cadre holistique de modèles et de méthodes de calcul pour l'analyse basée sur la fiabilité et la maintenance d'optimisation des systèmes de sûreté nucléaire en tenant compte des connaissances disponibles sur les systèmes, les comportements de dégradation et de défaillance, de leurs dépendances, les facteurs influençant externes et les incertitudes associées.Les contributions scientifiques originales dans la thèse sont:(1) Pour les composants simples, nous intégrons des chocs aléatoires dans les modèles de physique multi-états pour l'analyse de la fiabilité des composants qui envisagent dépendances générales entre la dégradation et de deux types de chocs aléatoires.(2) Pour les systèmes multi-composants (avec un nombre limité de composants):(a) un cadre de modélisation de processus de Markov déterministes par morceaux est développé pour traiter la dépendance de dégradation dans un système dont les processus de dégradation sont modélisées par des modèles basés sur la physique et des modèles multi-états; (b) l'incertitude épistémique à cause de la connaissance incomplète ou imprécise est considéré et une méthode volumes finis est prolongée pour évaluer la fiabilité (floue) du système; (c) les mesures d'importance de l'écart moyen absolu sont étendues pour les composants avec multiples processus concurrents dépendants de dégradation et soumis à l'entretien; (d) la politique optimale de maintenance compte tenu de l'incertitude épistémique et la dépendance de dégradation est dérivé en combinant schéma volumes finis, évolution différentielle et non-dominée de tri évolution différentielle; (e) le cadre de la modélisation de (a) est étendu en incluant les impacts des chocs aléatoires sur les processus dépendants de dégradation.(3) Pour les systèmes multi-composants (avec un grand nombre de composants), une méthode d'évaluation de la fiabilité est proposé considérant la dépendance dégradation en combinant des diagrammes de décision binaires et simulation de Monte Carlo pour réduire le coût de calcul

A review of asset management literature on multi-asset systems

This article gives an overview of the literature on asset management for multi-unit systems with an emphasis on two multi-asset categories: fleet (a system of homogeneous assets) and portfolio (a system of heterogeneous assets). As asset systems become more complicated, researchers have employed different terms to refer to their specific problems. With an objective to facilitate readers in searching conducive studies to their interests, this paper establishes a novel classification scheme for multi-unit systems in accordance with essential features such as diversity of assets and intervention options. Moreover, discerning differences in characteristics between cross-component and cross-asset interactions, we select three types of potential multi-component dependencies (performance, stochastic, and resource) and extend their notions to be applicable to multi-asset systems. The investigation into these dependencies enables the identification of problems that could exist in real industrial settings but are yet to be determined in academia. Ultimately, we delve into modelling approaches adopted by previous researchers. This comprehensive information allows us to offer the insights into the current trends in multi-asset maintenance. We expect that the output of this review paper will not only stress research gaps on multi-asset systems, but more importantly help systematise future studies on this aspect

Simulation-based optimisation of complex maintenance systems

There is a potential as well as a growing interest amongst researchers to utilise simulation in optimising maintenance systems. The state of the art in simulation-based optimisation of maintenance was established by systematically classifying the published literature and outlining main trends in modelling and optimising maintenance systems. In general, approaches to optimise maintenance varied significantly in the literature. Overall, these studies highlight the need for a framework that unifies the approach to optimising maintenance systems. Framework requirements were established through two main sources of published research. Surveys on maintenance simulation optimisation were examined to document comments on the approaches authors follow while optimising maintenance systems. In addition, advanced and future maintenance strategies were documented to ensure it can be accommodated in the proposed framework. The proposed framework was developed using a standard flowchart tool due to its familiarity and ability to depict decision structures clearly. It provides a systematic methodology that details the steps required to connect the simulation model to an optimisation engine. Not only it provides guidance in terms of formulating the optimal problem for the maintenance system at hand but it also provides support and assistance in defining the optimisation scope and investigating applicable maintenance strategies. Additionally, it considers current issues relating to maintenance systems both in research and in practice such as uncertainty, complexity and multi-objective optimisation. The proposed framework cannot be applied using existing approaches for modelling maintenance. Existing modelling approaches using simulation have a number of limitations: The maintenance system is modelled separately from other inter-related systems such as production and spare parts logistics. In addition, these approaches are used to model one maintenance strategy only. A novel approach for modelling maintenance using Discrete Event Simulation is proposed. The proposed approach enables the modelling of interactions amongst various maintenance strategies and their effects on the assets in non-identical multi-unit systems. Using the proposed framework and modelling approach, simulation-based optimisation was conducted on an academic case and two industrial cases that are varied in terms of sector, size, number of manufacturing processes and level of maintenance documentation. Following the structured framework enabled discussing and selecting the suitable optimisation scope and applicable maintenance strategies as well as formulating a customised optimal problem for each case. The results of the study suggest that over-looking the optimisation of maintenance strategies may lead to sub-optimal solutions. In addition, this research provides insights for non-conflicting objectives in maintenance systems

Maintenance optimization for asset systems with dependent performance degradation

This paper focuses on consider the optimization of maintenance plans for a system of assets with failure/degradation interaction between the assets. The asset system under consideration in this paper has M identical non-critical machines feeding their output to a critical machine. A common repair team performs maintenance on all the machines. All the machines deteriorate over time independently. In addition to the independent degradation, the performance of the non-critical machine also affects the degradation of the critical machine. We develop a mathematical model to represent the interactions and performance of the asset system. We also provide a simulation-based numerical solution to optimize the maintenance plan for the system outlining the maintenance intervals for each of the machines