Between fallacy and feasibility? Dealing with the risk of ecological fallacies in the quantitative study of protest mobilization and conflict

In recent years, the quantitative study of conflict has increasingly focused on small-scale and/or localized conflicts in the developing world. In this paper, we analyze and critically reflect upon a major methodological shortcoming of many studies in this field of research. We argue that by using group- or macro-level empirical data and modelling techniques, while at the same time theoretically underpinning observed empirical associations with individual-level mechanisms, many of these studies risk committing an ecological fallacy. The individual-level mechanism on which many studies rely concerns the presence of grievances which mobilize people to participate in contentious politics. This motivational approach was also present in early studies on protest mobilization in Western societies, which often relied on similar research designs. However, subsequent advances in this literature and the use of methods that were targeted more directly at the individual level uncovered that grievances alone cannot explain mobilization and that organizational capabilities and complex psychological mechanisms of belonging also form part of the puzzle. While drawing on conflict events as well as survey data from Africa, we demonstrate empirically that here, as well, inferring micro-level relations and dynamics from macro-level empirical models can lead to erroneous interpretations and inferences. Hence, we argue that to improve our understanding of conflict mobilization in the developing world, especially for conflicts with low levels of violence, it is necessary to substantially expand our methodological toolbox beyond macro-level analyses

Green change: renewable energies, policy mix and innovation

A far-reaching transformation to green, CO2–free solutions is needed to achieve the ambitious climate policy target of limiting the global temperature rise to not more than 2°C. With this in mind, the GRETCHEN project explored the impacts of the policy mix on innovation in renewable power generation technologies in Germany at three levels: the micro level, focusing on the perspective of individual companies, the meso level, examining industry structures and the innovation system, and the macro level, modelling macroeconomic effects and CO2 emissions. The impact of the policy mix was analysed at these three levels for the following aspects: political targets to expand power generation from renewable energy sources, technology push, demand pull and systemic instruments as well as their interaction within the instrument mix, and the consistency and credibility of the policy mix and the coherence of political processes. The policy mix needed for a green transformation of the energy system can be considered holistically and valuated with regard to its innovation impact based on the policy mix concept developed in the GRETCHEN project. The corresponding findings are synthesized in this report on the results of the GRETCHEN project concerning the influence of the policy mix on technological and structural change in renewable power generation technologies in Germany

Probabilistic Guarded P Systems, A New Formal Modelling Framework

Multienvironment P systems constitute a general, formal framework for modelling the dynamics of population biology, which consists of two main approaches: stochastic and probabilistic. The framework has been successfully used to model biologic systems at both micro (e.g. bacteria colony) and macro (e.g. real ecosystems) levels, respectively. In this paper, we extend the general framework in order to include a new case study related to P. Oleracea species. The extension is made by a new variant within the probabilistic approach, called Probabilistic Guarded P systems (in short, PGP systems). We provide a formal definition, a simulation algorithm to capture the dynamics, and a survey of the associated software.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2012- 37434Junta de Andalucía P08-TIC-0420

Investigation of flow and heat transfer in a large-scale spent nuclear fuel cooling pond

The recent focus on nuclear power has led to the need for more efficient and economical methods of operating the Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) cooling ponds as well as complying with the strict safety and environmental legislations imposed by the IAEA and the UK Government. Like many other industrial applications, the design and operation of the SNF cooling ponds have evolved from experience; trial and error. Since the stored materials in such ponds are radioactive, it is very difficult to perform experimental studies. As a result, a rigorous scientific study based on fundamental principles has to be performed. The present research explores analytically and numerically the main processes that take place across the pond installation. The body of the present study includes four main parts: the first part is involved in modelling the heat loss from the free water surface, mainly due to evaporation, using analytical and single-phase numerical approaches, which represents a critical factor in the modelling of the large-scale cooling ponds. The predicted results were in good agreement with experimental data available in open literature. In the second part, a thermal model using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet was developed for the cooling pond based on an analytical approach. The well-mixed hypothesis was adopted to describe the water zone as well as the humid air zone. Also, the ventilation system was considered within this model. The developed spreadsheet tool was validated against reliable data available for Maine Yankee pool as well as temperature measurements collected from the Sellafield site. This spreadsheet tool is able to describe the transient behaviour with low computational cost, allowing many "what-if" scenarios to be rapidly investigated. In the third part, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to model the cooling pond at both macro and micro levels. The macro level modelling involved in developing a CFD model for Sellafield’s cooling pond where the fuel regions were approximated to porous medium. The computational domain was produced for the water zone only, where the humid air zone was introduced to the model by coupling of the spreadsheet model with the CFD model. This model was validated and used to examine the distribution of water temperature to confirm the reliability of the adopted well-mixed approach in the analytical model. The outcomes from the CFD and spreadsheet models were used to provide some boundary conditions to the micro-level model of the fuel assemblies. The modelling methodology of the fuel assemblies was partially validated with experimental data for heat transfer around vertical cylinder. The maximum temperature of the water within the rack arrangement was determined under various conditions and a correlation was proposed. Finally, a sensitivity study was performed using Taguchi method and the statistical method of ANOVA to assess the influence of the cooling systems as well as the environmental conditions on the thermal performance of the cooling pond. The spreadsheet model was implemented to carry out the calculations. The outcomes from this study were presented in the form of recommendations that may be able to aid the organisation to manage their cooling pond more efficiently and safely during the normal operating conditions as well as recovery from an accident scenario

Demographic change and the drivers of future migration into Europe. Approach, methodology and work plan of the JRC/IIASA Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration

This document describes the research approach, methodology and work plan of the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration that was established in 2016 as a collaboration been IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and JRC (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission). This collaboration is scheduled for three years and each side provides the funding of five post-doctoral researchers. Team members will be jointly supervised and be stationed in Ispra and at IIASA with strong interactions. The new Centre will take a multi-dimensional demographic approach to assess the consequences of alternative future population and migration trends in Europe as well as in the main regions of origin for migration into Europe. The Centre will study push and pull factors, different kinds of migration streams as well as the impact of migration flows for Europe in terms of population aging and the productivity of Europe’s labor force over the coming decades. This will be done in terms of macro-level modelling including population scenarios by age, sex, level of education and labor force participation for all EU member states as well as micro-simulation models with more characteristics in order to study the integration of migrants. Scenarios by age, sex and level of education will also be done for potential sending countries in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe and combined with aspects of socio-economic and environmental change following the narratives of the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) to assess possible future push factors. Special attention is given to the possible impacts of climate change on migration. The main output documents will be a set of updated population scenarios by age, sex and level of education following the approach of the OUP volume “World Population and 4uman Capital in the 21st Century” (Lutz et al. 2014) to be produced by the end of 2017 and a scientific book with the main conclusion concerning alternative migration and integration scenarios to be finalized in late 2018 to serve as input for the policy planning of the new incoming European Commission. In addition the publication of a number of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles is foreseen

Costing study of two-year accelerated honours degrees

Report to HEFCE by Liz Hart Associates. "[This] study had two key objectives: to provide evidence of the impact of two-year accelerated honours degrees on course costs; to make comparisons with the costs of comparable degrees delivered through the traditional three-year route; and, in addition, the study was to consider any barriers to the possibility of expansion of two-year accelerated honours degrees... The indicative cost comparisons and institutional modelling in this study clearly show the potential for cost savings represented by two-year accelerated honours degrees. However, the realisation of these savings presents further challenges for institutions and the study makes recommendations to HEFCE as to how some of these might be addressed." - pp 3-4

Social Economy, Community Resilience and the Transition to Sustainability - Goal and Project Description

This five year summary section of a funding application to the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada was prepared by the BC-Alberta Social Economy Research Alliance (BALTA) to successfully seek funding to support a two year development process for a new research program and partnership focusing on how to scale innovation out and up to support community transitions to greater resilience and sustainability.BC-Alberta Social Economy Research Alliance (BALTA

Draft Mandate for the Community-Based Research - Research Cluster (CBR) BALTA 2 Partnership Development Project Scaling Innovation for Sustainability (SIS)

The goal of the Scaling Innovation for Sustainability Project is to focus expertise on developing a theoretical and methodological framework for studying the scaling up and scaling out of innovations that re-localize the economy and strengthen the resilience and sustainability of communities and regions. The Community Based Research Research Cluster will be focusing specifically on developing the methodological framework and methods for the community research projects that will be a part of this research program. This document provides guidance for the work of the research cluster.BC-Alberta Social Economy Research Alliance (BALTA); Athabasca University; Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC

Development of Hotzone Identification Models for Simultaneous Crime and Collision Reduction

This research contributes to developing macro-level crime and collision prediction models using a new method designed to handle the problem of spatial dependency and over-dispersion in zonal data. A geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model and geographically weighted negative binomial regression (GWNBR) model were used for crime and collision prediction. Five years (2009-2013) of crime, collision, traffic, socio-demographic, road inventory, and land use data for Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada were used. The need for geographically weighted models became clear when Moran's I local indicator test showed statistically significant levels of spatial dependency. A bandwidth is a required input for geographically weighted regression models. This research tested two bandwidths: 1) fixed Gaussian and 2) adaptive bi-square bandwidth and investigated which was better suited to the study's database. Three crime models were developed: violent, non-violent and total crimes. Three collision models were developed: fatal-injury, property damage only and total collisions. The models were evaluated using seven goodness of fit (GOF) tests: 1) Akaike Information Criterion, 2) Bayesian Information Criteria, 3) Mean Square Error, 4) Mean Square Prediction Error, 5) Mean Prediction Bias, and 6) Mean Absolute Deviation. As the seven GOF tests did not produce consistent results, the cumulative residual (CURE) plot was explored. The CURE plots showed that the GWPR and GWNBR model using fixed Gaussian bandwidth was the better approach for predicting zonal level crimes and collisions in Regina. The GWNBR model has the important advantage that can be used with the empirical Bayes technique to further enhance prediction accuracy. The GWNBR crime and collision prediction models were used to identify crime and collision hotzones for simultaneous crime and collision reduction in Regina. The research used total collision and total crimes to demonstrate the determination of priority zones for focused law enforcement in Regina. Four enforcement priority zones were identified. These zones cover only 1.4% of the Citys area but account for 10.9% of total crimes and 5.8% of total collisions. The research advances knowledge by examining hotzones at a macro-level and suggesting zones where enforcement and planning for enforcement are likely to be most effective and efficient