Human and environmental exposure to hydrocarbon pollution in the Niger Delta:A geospatial approach

This study undertook an integrated geospatial assessment of human and environmental exposure to oil pollution in the Niger Delta using primary and secondary spatial data. This thesis begins by presenting a clear rationale for the study of extensive oil pollution in the Niger Delta, followed by a critical literature review of the potential application of geospatial techniques for monitoring and managing the problem. Three analytical chapters report on the methodological developments and applications of geospatial techniques that contribute to achieving the aim of the study. Firstly, a quantitative assessment of human and environmental exposure to oil pollution in the Niger Delta was performed using a government spill database. This was carried out using Spatial Analysis along Networks (SANET), a geostatistical tool, since oil spills in the region tend to follow the linear patterns of the pipelines. Spatial data on pipelines, oil spills, population and land cover data were analysed in order to quantify the extent of human and environmental exposure to oil pollution. The major causes of spills and spatial factors potentially reinforcing reported causes were analysed. Results show extensive general exposure and sabotage as the leading cause of oil pollution in the Niger Delta. Secondly, a method of delineating the river network in the Niger Delta using Sentinel-1 SAR data was developed, as a basis for modelling potential flow of pollutants in the distributary pathways of the network. The cloud penetration capabilities of SAR sensing are particularly valuable for this application since the Niger Delta is notorious for cloud cover. Vector and raster-based river networks derived from Sentinel-1 were compared to alternative river map products including those from the USGS and ESA. This demonstrated the superiority of the Sentinel-1 derived river network, which was subsequently used in a flow routing analysis to demonstrate the potential for understanding oil spill dispersion. Thirdly, the study applied optical remote sensing for indirect detection and mapping of oil spill impacts on vegetation. Multi-temporal Landsat data was used to delineate the spill impact footprint of a notable 2008 oil spill incident in Ogoniland and population exposure was evaluated. The optical data was effective in impact area delineation, demonstrating extensive and long-lasting population exposure to oil pollution. Overall, this study has successfully assembled and produced relevant spatial and attribute data sets and applied integrated geostatistical analytical techniques to understand the distribution and impacts of oil spills in the Niger Delta. The study has revealed the extensive level of human and environmental exposure to hydrocarbon pollution in the Niger Delta and introduced new methods that will be valuable fo

Monitoring and modelling disturbances to the Niger Delta mangrove forests

The Niger River Delta provides numerous ecosystem services (ES) to local populations and holds a wealth of biodiversity. Nevertheless, they are under threat of degradation and loss mainly due to the population increase and oil and gas extraction activities. Monitoring mangrove vegetation change and understanding the dynamics related with these changes is crucial for the short and longer-term sustainability of the Niger Delta Region (NDR) and its mangrove forests. Over the last two decades, open access remote sensing data, together with technological and algorithmic advancements, have provided the ability to monitor land cover over large areas through space and time. However, the analysis of land cover dynamics over the NDR using freely available optical remote sensing data, such as Landsat, remains challenging due to the gaps in the archive associated with the West African region and the issue of cloud contamination over the wet tropics. This thesis applies state-art-of-the-art remote sensing techniques and integrated modelling approaches to provide reliable information relating to monitoring and modelling of land cover change in the NDR, focusing on its mangrove forests. Spectral-temporal metrics from all available Landsat images were used to accurately map land cover in three time points, using a Random Forests machine learning classification model. The performance of the classification was tested when L-band radar data are added to the Landsat-based metrics. Results showed that Landsat based metrics are sufficient in mapping land cover over the study region with high overall classification accuracies over the three time points (1988, 2000, and 2013) and degraded mangroves were accurately mapped for the first time. Two additional assessments: a change intensity analysis for the entire NDR and, fragmentation analysis focusing on mangrove land cover classes were carried out for the first time ever. The drivers of mangrove degradation were assessed using a Multi-layer Perceptron, Artificial Neutral Networks (MLP-ANN) algorithm. The results reveal that built-up infrastructure variables were the most important drivers of mangrove degradation between 1988 and 2000, whilst oil and gas infrastructure variables were the most important drivers between 2000 and 2013. Results also show that population density was the least important driver of mangrove degradation over the two study periods. Future land cover changes and mangrove degradation were predicted under two business-as-usual scenarios in the short (2026) and longer-term (2038) using a Multi-Layer Perceptron neutral network and Markov chain (MLP-ANN+MC) model. The model’s accuracy was assessed using the highly-accurate land cover classification of 2013. Results show that that mangrove forest and woodlands (lowland and freshwater forests) are demonstrating a net loss, whilst the built-up areas and agriculture are indicating a net increase in both the short and longer-term scenarios. However, degraded mangroves are demonstrating a net increase in the short-term scenario. Interestingly, in the longer-term scenario, more than double the net increase of mangroves degraded in the short-term scenario, are predicted to recover to their healthier state. The thesis results could provide useful information for planning conservation measures for sustainable mangrove forest management of the entire NDR

River network delineation from Sentinel 1 SAR data

In many regions of the world, especially in developing countries, river network data are outdated or completely absent, yet such information is critical for supporting important functions such as flood mitigation efforts, land use and transportation planning, and the management of water resources. In this study a new method was developed for delineating river networks using Sentinel-1 imagery. Unsupervised classification was applied to multi-temporal Sentinel-1 data to discriminate water bodies from other land cover types then the outputs were combined to generate a single persistent water bodies product. A thinning algorithm was then used to delineate river centre lines which were converted into vector features and built into a topologically structured geometric network. The complex river system of the Niger Delta was used to compare the performance of the Sentinel-based method against alternative freely available waterbody products from USGS, ESA and OpenStreetMap and a river network derived from a SRTM DEM. From both raster-based and vector-based accuracy assessments it was found that the Sentinel-based river network products were superior to the comparator data sets by a substantial margin. The resulting geometric river network was used to perform flow routing analysis which is important for a variety of environmental management and planning applications. The approach developed in this study holds considerable potential for generating up to date, detailed river network data for the many countries globally where such data are deficient

Natural Regeneration; 4 Years after the Ekiugbo Oil Spill, at Ughelli, Delta State, Nigeria: Implication for Phytoremediation Potential

This study assessed the floristic composition, structural classification and phytosociology of life form regeneration, mode of regeneration and demographic status of regeneration in vegetation forest, 4 years after pollution impact. It was aimed at evaluating the phytoremediation potential of some hydrocarbon tolerant macrophytes (HTM). Conventional ecological approach involving stratified simple random design method and phytosociological indices were used. Result has classified the study site flora as low land secondary mosaic vegetation with heterogenous continuum in spatial and closed horizontal structural arrangement. Phytosociological dynamics of 51 herbaceous and 12 shrubby life forms of 63 representative species under 21 families and 49 genera of angiosperms recorded changes. Four prevalently dominant families very abundant with highest species diversity richness and three families in abundance were recorded. Shrubby recruit was lower than Herbaceous recruits with the Herbaceous sedge (HS) recording highest recruits among regenerating life forms (HS>HG>HH>HCl). The herbaceous life form had Chamaephytes 33(64.71%) and Hemicryptophytes 18(35.29%). The shrubby life form recorded 2(11.11%) Nanophanerophytes and Mesophanerophytes respectively and 8(66.67%) Microphanerophytes. The herbaceous life form mode of regeneration had 28 recruits with multiplier mode, and 23 recruits with single mode of regeneration. Four recruits exhibited multiplier mode and eight with single mode of regeneration across shrubby life form. Demographic status of regeneration revealed greater seedling than sapling density devoid of adult tree recruits, thus implies “successful and new regeneration” Keywords: Coppice, Recruits, Rhizome, Sapling, and Seedlings. DOI: 10.7176/JEES/12-11-04 Publication date: November 30th 202

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CRITICAL OIL AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE NIGER DELTA

Oil and gas infrastructures are being severely impacted by extreme climate change-induced disasters such as flood, storm, tidal surges, and rising temperature in the Niger Delta with high. There is a high potential for disruption of upstream and downstream activities as the world climate continues to change. The lack of knowledge of the criticality and vulnerability of infrastructures could further exacerbate impacts and the assets management value chain. This thesis, therefore, applied a criteria-based systematic evaluation of the criticality and vulnerability of selected critical oil and gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta. It applied multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDA) tool – analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in prioritising systems according to their vulnerability and criticality and recommended sustainable adaptation mechanisms. Through a critical review of relevant literature, seven (7) criteria each for criticality and vulnerability assessment were synthesised accordingly and implemented in the assessment process. A further exploratory investigation, physical examination of infrastructures, focus groups and elite interviews were conducted to identify possible vulnerable infrastructures and scope qualitative and quantitative data for analysis using Mi-AHP spreadsheet. Results prioritised the criticality of infrastructures in the following order: terminals (27.1%), flow stations (18.5%), roads/bridges (15.5%), and transformers/high voltage cables (11.1%) while the least critical are loading bays (8.6%) and oil wellheads (5.1%). Further analysis indicated that the most vulnerable critical infrastructures are: pipelines (25%), terminals (17%) and roads/bridges (14%) while transformers/high voltage cables and oil wellheads where ranked as least vulnerable with 11% and 9% respectively. In addition to vulnerability assessment, an extended documentary analysis of groundwater geospatial stream flow and water discharge rate monitoring models suggest that an in-situ rise in groundwater level and increase in water discharge rate (WDR) at the upper Niger River could indicate a high probability of flood event at the lower Delta, hence further exacerbates the vulnerability of critical infrastructures. Accordingly, physical examination of infrastructures suggests that an increase in regional and ambient temperature disrupts the functionality of compressors and optimal operation of Flow Stations and inevitably exacerbate corrosion of cathodic systems when mixed with the saltwater flood from the Atlantic. The thesis produced a flexible conceptual framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructures, contextualised and recommended sustainable climate adaptation strategies for the Niger Delta oil/gas industry. Some of these strategies include installation of industrial groundwater and water discharge rate monitoring systems, construction of elevated platforms for critical infrastructures installations, substitution of cathodic pipes with duplex stainless and glass reinforcement epoxy pipes. Others include proper channelisation of drainages and river systems around critical platforms, use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for flood monitoring and the establishment of inter-organisational climate impact assessment groups in the oil/gas industry. Climate impact assessment (CIA) is suggested for oil and gas projects as part of best practice in the environmental management and impact assessment framework

A transdisciplinary-based coupled approach for vulnerability assessment in the context of natural resource-based conflicts using remote sensing, spatial statistics and fuzzy logic adapted models

This thesis presents a new approach for investigating vulnerability assessment in the context of natural resource-based conflicts (NRBCs). It develops SEFLAME-CM (A Spatially Explicit Fuzzy Logic Adapted Modeling for Conflict Management). SEFLAME-CM is an innovative tool that improves the holistic vulnerability assessment (the external and the internal driver components) of NRBCs at a community scale towards co-creating scenarios for future conflict management (CM) strategies. It was perceived specifically that a methodology with the worldviews and the knowledge of the actors is capable of understanding conflicts better than the previous linear models such as the Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) and the Multinomial Logistic Regression Models (MNLR). SEFLAME-CM, an adapted model proved to be a reliable modeling tool for capturing the non-linearity, uncertainty, and ambiguity characteristics of the vulnerability assessments of NRBCs. The spatial extent of the study was limited to selected test sites within Ogoni and Okrika territories of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. These comprise of LGAs/communities and villages. Despite the uncertainty involved in real-world problems such as the Socio-ecological Systems (SES), the NRBCs, the increase in the computational power in the last decades has enabled the modeling of the complexities involved. Issues that cut across social-economic and biophysical interfaces, such as NRBCs, require both the knowledge of the experts and that of the local actors. This is thus following the recommendation of Seidl et al. (2013) on science with social research in the Anthropocene: “A systems perspective on coupled human-environmental systems (HES) help to address the inherent complexities. Additionally, a thorough interaction between science and society (i.e., transdisciplinarity) is necessary, as sustainable transitions are sometimes contested and can cause conflicts. In order to navigate complexities regarding the delicate interaction of scientific research with societal decisions these processes must proceed in a structured and functional way” (: 5). The main sections of the thesis after the introduction and the study area description began by reconceptualizing NRBCs. Current publications indicate that the study of NRBCs in the era of the Anthropocene needs to be reconceptualized to be able to explore strategies for conflict management which are beyond the hitherto military strategies often employed in the different international interventions on conflicts in the developing countries, particularly in Africa and Asia (Section 3). Multilateral agencies such as the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other peacekeeping international organizations, often embark on the use of military strategies which have proved to be unsustainable. This is because NRBCs are complex and “wicked” in nature (Brauch, 2003a, Spring et al., 2009, Brauch, 2010, Brauch, 2016b, Brauch, 2016a). By reconceptualizing NRBCs, the research firstly clarifies the concepts of risk, risk perception resilience, vulnerability assessment, and the “Vulnerability Cube”. Secondly, the bridging of the gap between the concepts of a holistic vulnerability assessment (HVA) and the NRBCs was discussed. Thirdly, the integration of HVA of NRBCs into fuzzy logic theory was presented. This was implemented in Section 5. The main argument of this Section 3 is that the complex characteristics of vulnerability to NRBCs require the use of a non-linear theoretical model that is adaptable and capable of addressing the complexities of NRBCs research. After the reconceptualization of NRBCs in Section 3, the thesis then followed the three phases of the transdisciplinary research approach proposed by Mauser et al. (2013) (see also Section 1.4 and Section 5.1). This phase dealt with a joint problem framing. This helped to operationalize NRBCs for simulation (see Section 4). The problem of NRBCs was framed by integrating the problem structuring methods (PSMs) (e.g GIS) with the qualitative method (e.g discourse analysis). The results of this joint problem framing showed the different drivers of NRBCs which were selected by the actors. With the aid of GIS, the actors’ mental maps were presented based on the different dimensions of NRBCs vulnerability. The results also show the similarities in the interest of local actors. The joint problem framing equally helped to organize and operationalize the input variables that were used for the modeling phase of the research. Hence the operationalization of the conflict drivers/factors generated from the joint problem framing is seen as a critical step in the transdisciplinary-based coupled approach to NRBCs. The second phase of the research after the joint problem phase is a co-production of knowledge for managing the NRBCs with the integration of knowledge from the actors. Here the overall research methodology and the algorithm of SEFLAME-CM were presented in Section 5. This was validated following a rigorous validation process (see Section 6). Prior to the validation of SEFLAME-CM, a non-spatially explicit model, Fuzzy Logic Adapted Modeling for Conflict Management (FLAME-CM) was developed, improved and validated following an iterative process using scores like R2, p-values, RMSE. The results of the validated FLAME-CM was conducted at village scale as a test site, but this was transferred to a spatially explicit context using a resolution of 200 x 200m2. The content of the FLAME-CM helped to establish a SEFLAME-CM. The validation of SEFLAME-CM is, therefore, an extension of FLAME-CM validation result (Figure 6.7). As seen in Figure 6.7, the result of the validated SEFLAME-CM is the final output of the model and the process does not have to go back to the FLAME-CM process. Figure 6.7 shows the schematics of the overall validation process. SEFLAME-CM was firstly validated by comparing outputs with spatial multi-criteria evaluation for conflict management (SMCE-CM) and secondly by using satellite remote sensing data. The result of the latter proved that the model result corresponds with the real world data (remote sensing). The result of the former shows that SEFLAME-CM performed better even when compared with the already established model of SMCE-CM. However, the advantage of SEFLAME-CM is that it accepts weighted inputs by the actors or stakeholders right from the problem framing phase. The entire methodological procedure of the research, therefore, shows a blend of methodology from the natural sciences and the social sciences, and integration of integration co-created knowledge with the actors. The third and the last phase of the research process of this thesis is the outlook and conclusion (see Section 7). It dealt with the research proposal for co-construction of scenario pathways for long-term conflict management strategies. The scenario construction, when applied in the future, would address the positive potential of collective natural resource management for longer-term peacebuilding and sustainable peace (Bruch et al., 2009, Ratner et al., 2013). It was conceived that after developing and validating an innovative spatially explicit component of the simulation model, SEFLAME-CM, the next logical step of the thesis is to apply the methodology for future conflict management. The “scenario” proposal for future CM is a period from 2016 to 2060. The justification is that while global scenarios cover time horizons of say 50–100 years, local scenarios focus on shorter periods, 20–30 years (Folhes et al., 2015). The choice of a scenario time frame that is longer than 20–30 years is because the study outcome is considered to be applicable to regional or national governance. When the co-constructed scenarios are implemented, they would help to explore CM options and strategies that can influence policy and decision making over natural resource management (NRM). For example, in the Niger Delta, the investments in CM can be re-channeled from military strategies and the current unsustainable Presidential Amnesty Programmes to achieve both peacebuilding and sustainability. Since social resilience is a “naturally emergent” response to harm or disaster, it is argued that conflict management plans must recognize and build on community adaptive capacities, while the areas of high resilience in terms of peace should be priority areas for future NRM. In a nutshell, the thesis enables the application of a transdisciplinary-based coupled approach that is based on co-creation of knowledge between the experts and the local actors in the management of NRBCs. Both the external and internal vulnerability drivers of NRBCs were assessed. The results demonstrate that environmental degradation, socio-economic and political drivers of resource conflict can be addressed holistically as well as being treated as separate drivers in the interplay of natural resources and conflicts at the community scale. Though there are limitations, relating to cost, time and the complex social processes involved in modeling a real-world process, the results at a fine-grained spatial and temporal scale proved to be very useful and form the basis for supporting integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) strategies for the future management and development of the Niger Delta region. The model remains very adaptable to other NRBCs cases in Africa and other regions of the world. This is especially where both natural resource extraction and conflicts intertwine, and particularly when there is either data scarcity or the available data sets are imprecise.Diese Arbeit demonstriert eine neue Herangehensweise zur Analyse von Vulnerabilität gegenüber Konflikten, die auf natürlichen Resourcen beruhen (Natural Resource Based Conflicts: NRBCs). Gezeigt wird die Entwicklung von SEFLAME-CM-A, ein räumlich explizites Fuzzy Logic Modell für Konfliktmanagement. SEFLAME-CM-A ist ein innovatives Tool, welches an co-konstruierte Klimamodellszenarien unter verschiedenen Bedingungen anpassbar ist. Im Speziellen wurde festgestellt, dass eine Methode mit weltweitem Blick und Expertenwissen besser dazu in der Lage ist Konflikte zu erklären, als die bisherigen linearen Modelle, wie etwa multivariate lineare Regressionen (MLRM) oder multinomiale logistische Regressionen (MNLR). SEFLAME-CM zeigte sich als verlässliches Tool um die Nicht-Linearitäten, Unsicherheiten, fehlende Präzision und Mehrdeutigkeiten abzufangen, welche Vulnerabilitätsanalysen prinzipiell mit sich bringen. Das räumliche Ausmaß der Studie ist auf ausgewählte Gebiete im Niger Delta begrenzt, die in LGAs/Communitys und Dörfer strukturiert sind. Trotz Unsicherheiten, welche bei realen Anwendung der NRBCs eine Rolle spielen, z.B. sozial-ökonomische Systeme, ermöglichte die zunehmende Leistungsstärke von Computern in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten auch Modellierungen von Sachverhalten höherer Komplexität. Probleme, die sozio-ökonomische und biophysikalische Räume spalten, schaffen eine Notwendigkeit sowohl für Expertenwissen, als auch für Mitwirken der lokal Beteiligten. Seidl et al. (2013) empfehlen für eine Wissenschaft mit Sozialforschung im Anthropozän, dass die Perspektive auf gekoppelte Mensch-Umwelt-Beziehungen dabei helfe, die damit einhergehende Komplixität besser berücksichtigen zu können. Zusätzlich sei eine gewissenhafte Interaktion zwischen Wissenschaft und Gesellschaft (also Interdisziplinarität) notwendig, da nachhaltige Umstellungen manchmal umstritten seien und Konflikte hervorrufen könnten. Um sich in der Komplexität zurechtzufinden, welche die heiklen Interaktionen zwischen wissenschaftlicher Forschung und gesellschaftlichen Entscheidungen mit sich bringen, müssten diese Prozesse auf strukturierte und funktionale Art und Weise ausgeführt werden. Das Hauptkapitel dieser Arbeit, welches sich an die Einleitung und die Beschreibung des Untersuchungsgebiet anschließt, begann mit der Entwicklung eines neuen Denkansatzes bezüglich NRBCs. Aktuelle Veröffentlichungen zeigen, dass die Untersuchung dieser Konflikte neue Strategien des Konfliktmanagements erforderlich macht, die jenseits der bisherigen militärischen Lösungen liegen, wie sie derzeit in Entwicklungsländern vor allem in Afrika und Asien eingesetzt werden. Obwohl sie sich im Anthropozän als nicht nachhaltig erwiesen, da die Ursachen der Konflikte eindeutig in Umweltproblemen zu suchen sind, sind zahlreiche multilaterale Vertretungen wie die Vereinten Nationen, NATO oder internationale Organisationen zur Friedenswahrung auf die militärischen Strategien aufgesprungen (Brauch, 2003a, Spring et al., 2009, Brauch, 2010, Brauch, 2016b, Brauch, 2016a). Aus diesem Grund klärt diese Studie erstens die Konzepte von Risiko, Risikowahrnehmung, Resilienz, Vulnerabilitätsanalysen und Vulnerabilitätswürfel. Zweitens wurde eine Brücke zwischen dem Konzept der holistischen Vulnerabilitätsanalyse (holistic vulnerability assessment HVA) und NRBCs geschlagen. Drittens wurde die Integration der HVA von NRBCs in die Fuzzy Logic Theorie vorgestellt. Dies wurde in Section 5 eingebaut. Dessen Hauptargument war, dass die komplexen Eigenschaften der NRBCs einem nicht-linearen theoretischen Modell bedürfen, welches sowohl anpassungsfähig ist, als auch der Komplexität der NRBC-Forschung gerecht wird. Nach der Neukonzeptionalisierung von NRBCs in Section 3, folgte die Arbeit schließlich dem Ansatz der drei Phasen transdisziplinärer Forschung von Mauser et al. (2013, siehe Section 1.4). Diese Phase verfolgte einen vereinten Problemlösungsansatz. Dieses Framework mit seiner Strukturierung ermöglichte die Operationalisierung von NRBCs für Computer-Simulationen. Dabei werden problemstrukturierende Methoden, wie beispielsweise GIS, mit qualitativen Methoden, z.B. einer Diskursanalyse, kombiniert. Die Ergebnisse der Implementierung von Problemabgrenzung und –strukturierung zeigt die unterschiedlichen Treiber von Konflikten über Naturresourcen, die von den Akteuren genannt wurden. Mithilfe von GIS wurden Mental Maps der Akteure basierend auf den verschiedenen Dimensionen des Konflikts und der Vulnerabilität visualisiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen die Gemeinsamkeiten des Interesses lokaler Aktuere. Gleichwohl half die gemeinsame Problemabgrenzung dabei, die Eingangsvariablen zu organisieren, die in der Modellierungsphase genutzt wurden. Deshalb wird die Operationalisierung der Konfliktfaktoren, welche bei der gemeinsamen Problemabgrenzung erzeugt wurde, als kritischer Schritt im interdisziplinären Modellansatz naturresourcenbedinger Konflikte gesehen. Die zweite Phase nach der gemeinsamen Problemphase war die Koproduktion zwischen Wissen über Konflikte über Naturresourcen und die Integration des Wissens der Akteure. Die Methodik und der Algorithmus von SEFLAME-CM wurde in Section 5 vorgestellt und anschließend einem strengen Validierungsprozess unterworfen (Section 6). Vor der Entwicklung des disziplinübergreifenden Modellansatzes SEFLAME-CM, welcher validiert und in dieser Arbeit angewandt wurde, wurde ein ähnliches, aber räumlich nicht explizites Modell – FLAME-CM – entwickelt, verbessert und einem iterativen Prozess folgend mit Methoden wie R², p-Values und RMSE getestet. Das Ergebnis des validierten FLAME-CM wurde auf lokaler Skala durchgeführt, aber dann auf räumlich expliziten Kontext mit einer Auflösung von 200x200 Metern übertragen. Wie in Abbildung 6.7 gezeigt, ist der Modell-Output von SEFLAME-CM final und der Prozess muss nicht länger auf FLAME-CM zurückgestuft werden. Abbildung 6.7 skizziert den übergreifenden Validierungsprozess. SEFLAME-CM wurde zunächst validiert, indem die Outputs mit einer räumlich multikriteriellen Evaluierung im Konfliktmanagement (Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation for Conflict Management, SMCE-CM) verglichen wurden. Die Ergebnisse des zuletztgenannten Verfahrens belegten, dass die Modellergebnisse korrekt mit echten Daten (Fernerkundung) übereinstimmen. Das Ergebnis des erstgenannten Verfahrens zeigt, dass SEFLAME-CM bessere Resultate erzielt, selbst wenn es mit dem existierenden Modell SMCE-CM verglichen wird. Der Vorteil von SEFLAME-CM ist jedoch, dass es ohne Weiteres gewichtete Inputs durch die Akteure und Stakeholder direkt in der Phase der Problemabgrenzung annimmt. Die gesamte methodologische Wissenschaftsprozedur zeigt daher einen Methodenmix aus Natur- und Sozialwissenschaften, wie beispielsweise eine integrative Kooperation der verschiedenen Akteure. Die dritte und letzte Phase der Arbeit beinhaltet den Ausblick und die Schlussfolgerung (Section 7). Sie behandelt die Anwendung der gekoppelten Informationen. Diese finale Wissenschaftsphase umfasst eine gemeinschaftliche Erarbeitung von Szenarien und eine Simulation von Langzeitstrategien zum Konflikt-Management. Die Erstellung der Szenarien behandelt das Potential eines gemeinschaftlichen Management natürlicher Resourcen. Eine Verbesserung der Zusammenarbeit wird im Konflikt-Management zunehmend als wichtiger Bestandteil dauerhafter Friedensschließung angesehen (Bruch et al., 2009, Ratner et al., 2013). Nach Entwicklung und Validierung einer innovativen, räumlich expliziten Modell-Komponente, SEFRAME-CM, war der nächste logische Schritt dieser ArbAeit die Methoden auf zukünftiges Konflikt-Management anzuwenden, indem das Management natürlicher Resourcen in Klimamodelle integriert wurde. Der Vorschlag für ein „Szenario“ für zukünftiges Konfliktmanagement beinhaltet die Zeitperiode von 2016 bis 2060. Dies liegt darin begründet, dass sich lokale Szenarien mit 20-30 Jahren (Folhes et al., 2015) auf kürzere Zeiträume konzentrieren, während globale Szenarien einen Horizont von 50-100 Jahren umspannen. Die Wahl fällt auf einen Zeitraum von 20-30 Jahren, da die Ergebnisse der Studie auf regionaler und nationaler Regierungsführung anwendbar sind. Eine Implementierung der gemeinschaftlich konstruierten Szenarien würde dabei helfen Optionen und Strategien des Konfliktmanagements zu erkunden, welche die Politik und deren Entscheidungsträger im Bezug auf Ressourcenmanagement beeinflussen. Eine Investition in Konflikt-Management, z.B. im Niger Delta, kann durch Neuausrichtung militärischer Strategien und das derzeit nicht-nachhaltige Presidential Armnesty Programm geschehen um Friedensbildung und Nachhaltigkeit zu erreichen. Da soziale Resilienz eine naturgemäße Antwort auf Unheil und Katastrophen darstellt, wird oft so argumentiert, dass Pläne zum Konflikt-Management die adaptiven Möglichkeiten der Communitys anerkennt und auf ihnen aufbaut, während Gebiete mit hohem Potential an Resilienz prioritär für Naturresourcen-Management der Zukunft angesehen wird Zusammenfassend lässt sich sagen, dass die in dieser Arbeit dargestellte Herangehensweise die Anwendung eines interdisziplinären Modells ermöglicht, das auf gemeinsam entwickeltem Wissen von Experten und lokalen Akteuren im Management von NRBCs beruht. Sowohl die externen als auch internen Vulnerabilitätstreiber der NRBCs wurden bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Degradation der Umwelt sowie sozio-ökonomische als auch politische Treiber von Resourcenkonflikten jeweils holistisch, aber auch als separate Treiber im Zusammenspiel natürlicher Resourcen und Konflikten auf kommunaler Ebene behandelt werden können. Trotz allem gibt es Limitierungen, die hauptsächlich auf den komplexen sozialen Prozessen der realen globalen Prozesse beruhen. Die Ergebnisse aus räumlich und zeitlich hoch aufgelösten Daten zeigte sich als sehr nützlich und stellt die Basis für die Unterstützung der Strategien des integrierte Management von Küstenzonen dar, wie sie für ein zukünftiges Management in der Region des Niger Deltas Anwendung finden soll. Das Modell bleibt dabei stark anpassungsfähig für ähnliche Fälle von NRBCs in Afrika und anderen Regionen der Welt, bei denen biophysikalische, sozio-ökonomische und politische Verbindungen entzweit werden. Dies gilt besonders dann, wenn die Datengrundlage knapp und die verfügbaren Datensätze unpräzise

Sustainable management of mineral resource active regions: a participatory framework for the application of systems thinking

Mineral active regions (MARs), considered here as those with stocks of geological resources of intrinsic economic interest that can be used beyond the scope or need of the local people, have undergone decades of extraction with significant environmental and human health effects, socio-cultural impacts, and ecosystem and biodiversity consequences. Traditional resource governance and management approaches were reviewed and the potential for re-assessing these regions from a systems perspective was investigated. Through an extensive review, the application of systems thinking in resource management was demonstrated to have the potential to deliver benefits to all stakeholders while maintaining ecological integrity. Rather than simply relying on competition, a process that focuses on the interdependencies between the various players and sectors in these regions can deliver system improvements and should be further investigated because of its potential to deliver holistic solutions that could benefit all involved. Appraisal of systems methodologies was undertaken and their application to MAR challenges discussed, and a participatory approach was selected to form the basis of the proposed framework, a holistic tool to deal effectively with the complexity of MARs. Using a case study, the thesis addressed the data required to capture its complexity and catchment information, policy problems as well as relevant stakeholders were identified. A participatory group building process was conducted which was a learning process that resulted in the co-production of knowledge by identifying problem drivers in the region. Quantitative data on a decade of oil spill was analysed with graphical representation showing the causes of oil spill, quantity spilled and lost to the environment. The result of the data analysis supported the outcome of the participatory process which links the problem drivers with underlying socio-economic problems plaguing the region. The application of the participatory framework in the case study demonstrates the practicability of the tool and how it can be utilised to see the interactions and interdependences between actors and elements in the MAR system. Understanding the full consequences and benefits of such interactions was shown to be the way to avoid conflicts and encourage collaboration. The participatory systems framework developed here can facilitate the sustainable management of MARs based on its inclusive approach. It can serve as a tool to support policies that ensures that resource development is undertaken sustainably through a resource regime that is able to deliver benefits to all stakeholders involved.Open Acces

Corporate social responsibility in the oil industry in Iraq

This thesis examines Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in the context of International Oil Companies operating in Iraq. International oil companies are the focus for examining CSR because the oil and gas industry is the backbone of the Iraqi economy and the primary source of government revenue. Corporate social responsibility requires corporations to act as good corporate citizens. At the very minimum, corporations, in addition to complying with their legal obligations, should be responsible for negative externalities created by their activities; otherwise the community bears these costs rather than the corporation. Corporations should act responsibly to avoid negative impacts of its activities on society, its employees, the natural environment as well as respecting human rights, and taking measures to combat corruption and bribery. This is justified according to the key theories of corporate governance. It is now generally accepted that, according to stakeholder theory, corporations should take into account the interests of stakeholders who may be seriously harmed by the corporation’s activities. Although the primary concern of corporations is to maximise profits for the shareholder, modern elaborations of the shareholder primacy theory, namely enlightened shareholder value and enhanced shareholder welfare, now recognise that recognising stakeholder interests is important for a corporation’s long-term sustainable development. Consequently, directors, in for example, the UK and the US are required to promote the long-term success of the company taking into account the concerns and interests of relevant stakeholders and the social and environmental impact of the company’s activities. Putting aside negative externalities, CSR does not require corporations to contribute to social welfare in ways that do not advance the long-term sustainability or reputation of the corporation. The thesis argues that, for Iraq, a broader conception of CSR should be used to require International Oil Companies to positively contribute to community welfare by assisting with local infrastructure, training and local content. This is because Iraq and its citizens have not fairly shared in Iraq’s oil wealth. The thesis argues that Iraq can learn from other developing countries which, rather than relying on voluntary CSR, have legislatively required large corporations (and International Oil Companies) to contribute to development and social welfare. This approach recommends imposing legal obligations on International Oil Companies through oil contracts and where possible by legislation. This approach recognises the limitations of CSR based on voluntary conduct and its principal concerns with negative externalities. The thesis proposes a framework for implementing CSR in the oil industry which responds to the Iraqi context and makes recommendations for future policies and the imposition of legal obligations on International Oil Companies not only to avoid negative externalities but requiring them to positively contribute to social welfare