Sistemas granulares evolutivos

Orientador: Fernando Antonio Campos GomideTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: Recentemente tem-se observado um crescente interesse em abordagens de modelagem computacional para lidar com fluxos de dados do mundo real. Métodos e algoritmos têm sido propostos para obtenção de conhecimento a partir de conjuntos de dados muito grandes e, a princípio, sem valor aparente. Este trabalho apresenta uma plataforma computacional para modelagem granular evolutiva de fluxos de dados incertos. Sistemas granulares evolutivos abrangem uma variedade de abordagens para modelagem on-line inspiradas na forma com que os humanos lidam com a complexidade. Esses sistemas exploram o fluxo de informação em ambiente dinâmico e extrai disso modelos que podem ser linguisticamente entendidos. Particularmente, a granulação da informação é uma técnica natural para dispensar atenção a detalhes desnecessários e enfatizar transparência, interpretabilidade e escalabilidade de sistemas de informação. Dados incertos (granulares) surgem a partir de percepções ou descrições imprecisas do valor de uma variável. De maneira geral, vários fatores podem afetar a escolha da representação dos dados tal que o objeto representativo reflita o significado do conceito que ele está sendo usado para representar. Neste trabalho são considerados dados numéricos, intervalares e fuzzy; e modelos intervalares, fuzzy e neuro-fuzzy. A aprendizagem de sistemas granulares é baseada em algoritmos incrementais que constroem a estrutura do modelo sem conhecimento anterior sobre o processo e adapta os parâmetros do modelo sempre que necessário. Este paradigma de aprendizagem é particularmente importante uma vez que ele evita a reconstrução e o retreinamento do modelo quando o ambiente muda. Exemplos de aplicação em classificação, aproximação de função, predição de séries temporais e controle usando dados sintéticos e reais ilustram a utilidade das abordagens de modelagem granular propostas. O comportamento de fluxos de dados não-estacionários com mudanças graduais e abruptas de regime é também analisado dentro do paradigma de computação granular evolutiva. Realçamos o papel da computação intervalar, fuzzy e neuro-fuzzy em processar dados incertos e prover soluções aproximadas de alta qualidade e sumário de regras de conjuntos de dados de entrada e saída. As abordagens e o paradigma introduzidos constituem uma extensão natural de sistemas inteligentes evolutivos para processamento de dados numéricos a sistemas granulares evolutivos para processamento de dados granularesAbstract: In recent years there has been increasing interest in computational modeling approaches to deal with real-world data streams. Methods and algorithms have been proposed to uncover meaningful knowledge from very large (often unbounded) data sets in principle with no apparent value. This thesis introduces a framework for evolving granular modeling of uncertain data streams. Evolving granular systems comprise an array of online modeling approaches inspired by the way in which humans deal with complexity. These systems explore the information flow in dynamic environments and derive from it models that can be linguistically understood. Particularly, information granulation is a natural technique to dispense unnecessary details and emphasize transparency, interpretability and scalability of information systems. Uncertain (granular) data arise from imprecise perception or description of the value of a variable. Broadly stated, various factors can affect one's choice of data representation such that the representing object conveys the meaning of the concept it is being used to represent. Of particular concern to this work are numerical, interval, and fuzzy types of granular data; and interval, fuzzy, and neurofuzzy modeling frameworks. Learning in evolving granular systems is based on incremental algorithms that build model structure from scratch on a per-sample basis and adapt model parameters whenever necessary. This learning paradigm is meaningful once it avoids redesigning and retraining models all along if the system changes. Application examples in classification, function approximation, time-series prediction and control using real and synthetic data illustrate the usefulness of the granular approaches and framework proposed. The behavior of nonstationary data streams with gradual and abrupt regime shifts is also analyzed in the realm of evolving granular computing. We shed light upon the role of interval, fuzzy, and neurofuzzy computing in processing uncertain data and providing high-quality approximate solutions and rule summary of input-output data sets. The approaches and framework introduced constitute a natural extension of evolving intelligent systems over numeric data streams to evolving granular systems over granular data streamsDoutoradoAutomaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric

Fuzzy rule-based systems for recognition-intensive classification in granular computing context

In traditional machine learning, classification is typically undertaken in the way of discriminative learning using probabilistic approaches, i.e. learning a classifier that discriminates one class from other classes. The above learning strategy is mainly due to the assumption that different classes are mutually exclusive and each instance is clear-cut. However, the above assumption does not always hold in the context of real-life data classification, especially when the nature of a classification task is to recognize patterns of specific classes. For example, in the context of emotion detection, multiple emotions may be identified from the same person at the same time, which indicates in general that different emotions may involve specific relationships rather than mutual exclusion. In this paper, we focus on classification problems that involve pattern recognition. In particular, we position the study in the context of granular computing, and propose the use of fuzzy rule-based systems for recognition-intensive classification of real-life data instances. Furthermore, we report an experimental study conducted using 7 UCI data sets on life sciences, to compare the fuzzy approach with four popular probabilistic approaches in pattern recognition tasks. The experimental results show that the fuzzy approach can not only be used as an alternative one to the probabilistic approaches but also is capable to capture more patterns which probabilistic approaches cannot achieve

Defining and applying prediction performance metrics on a recurrent NARX time series model.

International audienceNonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been successfully demonstrated for modeling the input-output behavior of many complex systems. This paper deals with the proposition of a scheme to provide time series prediction. The approach is based on a recurrent NARX model obtained by linear combination of a recurrent neural network (RNN) output and the real data output. Some prediction metrics are also proposed to assess the quality of predictions. This metrics enable to compare different prediction schemes and provide an objective way to measure how changes in training or prediction model (Neural network architecture) affect the quality of predictions. Results show that the proposed NARX approach consistently outperforms the prediction obtained by the RNN neural network

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Time Series Functions Approach for Time Series Forecasting

Fuzzy inference systems have been commonly used for time series forecasting in the literature. Adaptive network fuzzy inference system, fuzzy time series approaches and fuzzy regression functions approaches are popular among fuzzy inference systems. In recent years, intuitionistic fuzzy sets have been preferred in the fuzzy modeling and new fuzzy inference systems have been proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets. In this paper, a new intuitionistic fuzzy regression functions approach is proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets for forecasting purpose. This new inference system is called an intuitionistic fuzzy time series functions approach. The contribution of the paper is proposing a new intuitionistic fuzzy inference system. To evaluate the performance of intuitionistic fuzzy time series functions, twenty-three real-world time series data sets are analyzed. The results obtained from the intuitionistic fuzzy time series functions approach are compared with some other methods according to a root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error criteria. The proposed method has superior forecasting performance among all methods

Application of Fuzzy and Conventional Forecasting Techniques to Predict Energy Consumption in Buildings

This paper presents the implementation and analysis of two approaches (fuzzy and conventional). Using hourly data from buildings at the University of Granada, we have examined their electricity demand and designed a model to predict energy consumption. Our proposal was conducted with the aid of time series techniques as well as the combination of artificial neural networks and clustering algorithms. Both approaches proved to be suitable for energy modelling although nonfuzzy models provided more variability and less robustness than fuzzy ones. Despite the relatively small difference between fuzzy and nonfuzzy estimates, the results reported in this study show that the fuzzy solution may be useful to enhance and enrich energy predictions.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación” (Spain) (Grant PID2020-112495RB-C21MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and from the I+D+i FEDER 2020 project B-TIC-42-UGR20 “Consejería de Universidad, Investigación e Innovación de la Junta de Andalucía.”Next Generation EU” Margaritas Salas aids

Multimodal forecasting methodology applied to industrial process monitoring

IEEE Industrial process modelling represents a key factor to allow the future generation of industrial manufacturing plants. In this regard, accurate models of critical signals need to be designed in order to forecast process deviations. In this work a novel multimodal forecasting methodology based on adaptive dynamics packaging and codification of the process operation is proposed. First, a target signal is decomposed by means of the Empirical Mode Decomposition in order to identify the characteristics intrinsic mode functions. Second, such dynamics are packaged depending on their significance and modelling complexity. Third, the operating condition of the considered process, reflected by available auxiliary signals, is codified by means of a Self-Organizing Map and presented to the modelling structure. The forecasting structure is supported by a set of ensemble ANFIS based models, each one focused on a different set of signal dynamics. The performance and effectiveness of the proposed method is validated experimentally with industrial data from a copper rod manufacturing plant and performance comparison with classical approaches. The proposed method improves performance and generalization versus classical single model approaches.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Evolving fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy approaches in clustering, regression, identification, and classification: A Survey

Major assumptions in computational intelligence and machine learning consist of the availability of a historical dataset for model development, and that the resulting model will, to some extent, handle similar instances during its online operation. However, in many real world applications, these assumptions may not hold as the amount of previously available data may be insufficient to represent the underlying system, and the environment and the system may change over time. As the amount of data increases, it is no longer feasible to process data efficiently using iterative algorithms, which typically require multiple passes over the same portions of data. Evolving modeling from data streams has emerged as a framework to address these issues properly by self-adaptation, single-pass learning steps and evolution as well as contraction of model components on demand and on the fly. This survey focuses on evolving fuzzy rule-based models and neuro-fuzzy networks for clustering, classification and regression and system identification in online, real-time environments where learning and model development should be performed incrementally. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Inc.Igor Škrjanc, Jose Antonio Iglesias and Araceli Sanchis would like to thank to the Chair of Excellence of Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and the Bank of Santander Program for their support. Igor Škrjanc is grateful to Slovenian Research Agency with the research program P2-0219, Modeling, simulation and control. Daniel Leite acknowledges the Minas Gerais Foundation for Research and Development (FAPEMIG), process APQ-03384-18. Igor Škrjanc and Edwin Lughofer acknowledges the support by the ”LCM — K2 Center for Symbiotic Mechatronics” within the framework of the Austrian COMET-K2 program. Fernando Gomide is grateful to the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for grant 305906/2014-3

A novel unemployment rate forecasting method based on fuzzy information granules and GM(1,1) model

Granular computing is a novel method to solve complex tasks in the context of big data by simulating human problem-solving thinking, abstracting complex problems and dividing them into several simpler problems (i.e., granulation), which helps to better analyze and solve problems. In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting unemployment rates, this paper introduces the granulation idea of granular computing into the time series analysis of unemployment rates. Therefore, a novel method based on fuzzy information granules (FIGs) and grey system theory, namely FIG-GM(1,1) model, is proposed. This method not only reduces the dimensionality of the problem and computational complexity but also effectively reduces cumulative errors. In empirical analysis, three different performance indicators, mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE), and seven comparative models are used to evaluate the forecasting performance of our proposed model. The empirical results indicate that the MAE, MAPE, and RMSE values of the FIG-GM(1,1) model are significantly lower than those of other models, indicating that the FIG-GM(1,1) model has better forecasting performance compared to other models