Recent land use and land cover pressures on Iberian peatlands

Iberian peatlands have been severely affected by land use and land cover (LULC) changes. Despite these pressures, some peatlands persist in the region, although their susceptibility to LULC change remains poorly understood. This study presents the most detailed and extensive distribution data for Iberian peatlands to date and analyzes the dynamics and drivers of LULC in Iberian peatlands and their surrounding areas. We compiled peatland records from various sources and used Corine Land Cover Change layers to determine LULC shifts in their surrounding areas for 1990, 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018. Environmental and socioeconomic variables were used to create Boosted Regression Tree models explaining spatial variations in the mean percentage of changed area. Analysis of 270 peatland locations in the Iberian Peninsula revealed that forests and seminatural areas constituted over 80% of the peatland’s surroundings. Agricultural areas expanded the most, except between 2006 and 2012 when the artificial areas showed more gains. While most surrounding areas experienced an average change of 0%-9.51% of the total area, between 1990 and 2018, lowland peatlands (littoral and sublittoral) suffered more intense changes (9.51% to 38.43%). Our models showed that only elevation and agricultural area density were relevant predictors of the spatial distribution of changes. Upland Iberian peatlands showed lower susceptibility to LULC change, while lowland peatlands underwent remarkable transformations. This study substantially expands previous knowledge about the distribution and conservation needs of these ecosystems in the Iberian Peninsula, especially those in littoral and sublittoral lowlands.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Half-century changes in LULC and fire in two Iberian inner mountain areas

Wildfires in the Iberian Peninsula were large and frequent in the second half of the 20th century. Land use and land cover (LULC) also changed greatly. Our aim was to understand the relationship between LULC and fire in the western and eastern ends of the Iberian Central Mountain System. We compared two case study landscapes, the Estrela massif and the Ayllón massif, which are biophysically similar but with di erent social-ecological contexts. In both, fires were in general more likely in shrublands and pastures than in forests. Shrublands replaced forests after fires. Contrasting LULC in the two massifs, particularly pastures, likely explained the di erences in fire occurrence, and reflected di erent regional land use policies and history. Fire here is a social-ecological system, influenced by specific LULC and with implications from landscape to regional scales. Understanding how LULC changes interact with fire is powerful for improving landscape and regional planninginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Relationship of runoff, erosion and sediment yield to weather types in the Iberian Peninsula

Precipitation has been recognized as one of the main factors driving soil erosion and sediment yield (SY), and its spatial and temporal variability is recognized as one of themain reasons for spatial and temporal analyses of soil erosion variability. The weather types (WTs) approach classifies the continuumof atmospheric circulation into a small number of categories or types and has been proven a good indicator of the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation. Thus, themain objective of this study is to analyze the relationship betweenWTs, runoff, soil erosion (measured in plots), and sediment yield (measured in catchments) in different areas of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) with the aimof detecting spatial variations in these relationships. To this end, hydrological and sediment information covering the IP from several Spanish research teams has been combined, and related with daily WTs estimated by using the NMC/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. The results showthat, in general, a fewWTs (particularly westerly, southwesterly and cyclonic) provide the largest amounts of precipitation; and southwesterly, northwesterly and westerly WTs play an important role in runoff generation, erosion and sediment yield as they coincide with the wettest WTs. However, this study highlights the spatial variability of erosion and sediment yield in the IP according to WT, differentiating (1) areas under the influence of north and/or north-westerly flows (the north coast of Cantabria and inland central areas), (2) areas under the influence of westerly, southwesterly and cyclonic WTs (western and southwestern IP), (3) areas in which erosion and sediment yield are controlled by easterly flows (Mediterranean coastland), and (4) lastly, a transitional zone in the inland northeast Ebro catchment,wherewe detected a high variability in the effects ofWTs on erosion. Overall results suggest that the use of WTs derived fromobserved atmospheric pressure patterns could be a useful tool for inclusion in future projections of the spatial variability of erosion and sediment yield, as models capture pressure fields reliably

Progress in grassland cover conservation in southern European mountains by 2020: a transboundary assessment in the Iberian Peninsula with satellite observations (2002–2019)

Conservation and policy agendas, such as the European Biodiversity strategy, Aichi biodiversity (target 5) and Common Agriculture Policy (CAP), are overlooking the progress made in mountain grassland cover conservation by 2020, which has significant socio-ecological implications to Europe. However, because the existing data near 2020 is scarce, the shifting character of mountain grasslands remains poorly characterized, and even less is known about the conservation outcomes because of different governance regimes and map uncertainty. Our study used Landsat satellite imagery over a transboundary mountain region in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (Peneda-Gerês) to shed light on these aspects. Supervised classifications with a multiple classifier ensemble approach (MCE) were performed, with post classification comparison of maps established and bias-corrected to identify the trajectory in grassland cover, including protected and unprotected governance regimes. By analysing class-allocation (Shannon entropy), creating 95% confidence intervals for the area estimates, and evaluating the class-allocation thematic accuracy relationship, we characterized uncertainty in the findings. The bias-corrected estimates suggest that the positive progress claimed internationally by 2020 was not achieved. Our null hypothesis to declare a positive progress (at least equality in the proportion of grassland cover of 2019 and 2002) was rejected (X2 = 1972.1, df = 1, p p = 0.0001, n = 708) suggesting a relationship between the quality of pixel assignment and thematic accuracy. We therefore encourage a post-2020 conservation and policy action to safeguard mountain grasslands by enhancing the role of protected governance regimes. To reduce uncertainty, grassland gain mapping requires additional remote sensing research to find the most adequate spatial and temporal data resolution to retrieve this process.This work was supported by the Portuguese FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e Teconologia in the framework of the ATM Junior researcher contract DL57/2016/CP1442/CP0005 and funding attributed to CEG-IGOT Research Unit (UIDB/00295/2020 and UIDP/00295/2020). Claudia Carvalho-Santos is supported by the “Contrato-Programa” UIDP/04050/2020 funded by FCT. We also acknowledge ECOPOTENTIAL (Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits Through Earth Observations)— European framework programme H2020 for research and innovation- grant agreement Nº 641762

Land Change Science and the STEPLand Framework : An Assessment of Its Progress

This contribution assesses a new term that is proposed to be established within Land Change Science: Spatio-TEmporal Patterns of Land ('STEPLand'). It refers to a specific workflow for analyzing land-use/land cover (LUC) patterns, identifying and modeling driving forces of LUC changes, assessing socio-environmental consequences, and contributing to defining future scenarios of land transformations. In this article, we define this framework based on a comprehensive meta-analysis of 250 selected articles published in international scientific journals from 2000 to 2019. The empirical results demonstrate that STEPLand is a consolidated protocol applied globally, and the large diversity of journals, disciplines, and countries involved shows that it is becoming ubiquitous. In this paper, the main characteristics of STEPLand are provided and discussed, demonstrating that the operational procedure can facilitate the interaction among researchers from different fields, and communication between researchers and policy makers

Caution Is Needed When Using Niche Models to Infer Changes in Species Abundance: The Case of Two Sympatric Raptor Populations

Despite the mounting evidence supporting positive relationships between species abundance and habitat suitability, the capacity of ecological niche models (ENMs) to capture variations in population abundance remains largely unexplored. This study focuses on sympatric populations of hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and Montagu’s harrier (Circus pygargus), surveyed in 1997 and 2017 in an upland moor area in northwestern Spain. The ENMs performed very well for both species (with area under the ROC curve and true skill statistic values of up to 0.9 and 0.75). The presence of both species was mainly correlated with heathlands, although the normalized difference water index derived from Landsat images was the most important for hen harrier, indicating a greater preference of this species for wet heaths and peat bogs. The findings showed that ENM-derived habitat suitability was significantly correlated with the species abundance, thus reinforcing the use of ENMs as a proxy for species abundance. However, the temporal variation in species abundance was not significantly explained by changes in habitat suitability predicted by the ENMs, indicating the need for caution when using these types of models to infer changes in population abundanceThis work received funding from Xunta de Galicia through the grant to structure and consolidate competitive research groups of Galicia (ED431B 2018/36). A.R. was funded by the Xunta de Galicia, Spain (postdoctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0)S

Understanding driving forces and implications associated with the land use and land cover changes in Portugal

Understanding the processes of land use and land cover changes (LUCC) and the associated driving forces is important for achieving sustainable development. This paper presents the LUCC in Portugal at the regional level (NUTS II) from 1995 to 2010 and discusses the main driving forces and implications associated with these LUCC. The main objectives of this work are: (a) to quantify the land use and land cover (LUC) types (level I of LUC cartography) by NUT II in Portugal for the years 1995, 2007 and 2010; (b) to assess the spatio-temporal LUCC; and (c) to identify and discuss the main driving forces of LUCC and corresponding implications based on correlations and Principal Components Analysis. The results revealed large regional and temporal LUCC and further highlighted the different and sometimes opposite time trends between neighboring regions. By associating driving forces to LUCC, different influences at the regional level were observed, namely LUCC into agriculture land derived from the construction of dams (Alentejo region), or the conversion of coniferous forest into eucalypt forest (Centre region) associated with increased gross value added (GVA) and employment in industry and forestry. Temporal differentiation was also observed, particularly in the settlements that expanded between 1995 and 2007 due to the construction of large infrastructures (e.g., highways, industrial complexes, or buildings), which is reflected on employment in industry and construction and respective GVA. However, certain LUCC have implications, particularly in energy consumption, for which different behavior between regions can be highlighted in this analysis, but also on land-use sustainability.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Analyzing post-socialist grassland conversion in a traditional agricultural landscape – Case study Croatia

Shrub encroachment and agricultural intensification have been a widespread occurrence in the former communist and socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Such changes have strongly affected grassland areas which are seen as hotspots of biodiversity in Europe. In this study we have investigated the changes in grassland cover as well as the causal mechanism of those changes in a selected region in Northern Croatia during the post-socialist transition. By using the mixed methods approach we combined remote sensing, statistical modelling and a household-based questionnaire (n = 285) to map the changes in the grassland cover and to assess the socio-economic and bio-physical contributing factors of the documented changes. The results demonstrate that areas seeing general depopulation trends and population ageing, along with increases in the amount of educated people are characterized by shrub encroachment and farmland abandonment, while flatlands and lowland areas are seeing higher rates of grassland to farmland conversion. The results also show that the partial de-agrarization characteristic for the socialist period has become a full de-agrarization in the post-socialist period, with the main impetus being education, rather than employment, as was the case during socialism

Using fire to enhance rewilding when agricultural policies fail

Rewilding has been proposed as an opportunity for biodiversity conservation in abandoned landscapes. However, rewilding is challenged by the increasing fire risk associated with more flammable landscapes, and the loss of open-habitat specialist species. Contrastingly, supporting High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf) has been also highlighted as a valuable option, but the effective implementation of agricultural policies often fails leading to uncertain scenarios wherein the effects of wildfire management remain largely unexplored. Herein, we simulated fire-landscape dynamics to evaluate howfire suppression scenarios affect fire regime and biodiversity (102 species of vertebrates) under rewilding and HNVf policies in the future (2050), in a transnational biosphere reserve (Gerês-Xurés Mountains, Portugal-Spain). Rewilding and HNVf scenarios were modulated by three different levels of fire suppression effectiveness. Then, we quantified scenario effects on fire regime (burned and suppressed areas) and biodiversity (habitat suitability change for 2050). Simulations confirm HNVf as a longterm opportunity for fire suppression (up to 30,000 ha of additional suppressed areas between 2031 and 2050 in comparison to rewilding scenario) and for conservation (benefiting around 60% of species). Rewilding benefits some species (20%), including critically endangered, vulnerable and endemic taxa, while several species (33%) also profit from open habitats created by fire. Although HNVf remains the best scenario, rewilding reinforced by low fire suppression management may provide a nature-based solution when societal support through agricultural policies failsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio