Uncertainty-aware dynamic reliability analysis framework for complex systems

YesCritical technological systems exhibit complex dynamic characteristics such as time-dependent behavior, functional dependencies among events, sequencing and priority of causes that may alter the effects of failure. Dynamic fault trees (DFTs) have been used in the past to model the failure logic of such systems, but the quantitative analysis of DFTs has assumed the existence of precise failure data and statistical independence among events, which are unrealistic assumptions. In this paper, we propose an improved approach to reliability analysis of dynamic systems, allowing for uncertain failure data and statistical and stochastic dependencies among events. In the proposed framework, DFTs are used for dynamic failure modeling. Quantitative evaluation of DFTs is performed by converting them into generalized stochastic Petri nets. When failure data are unavailable, expert judgment and fuzzy set theory are used to obtain reasonable estimates. The approach is demonstrated on a simplified model of a cardiac assist system.DEIS H2020 Project under Grant 732242

Quality in crowdsourced experience-based evaluations : handling subjective responses

Experience-based evaluations (XBEs) are appraisals based on what someone has understood or learned about a topic by experience. Although XBEs can be highly subjective, imprecise, and diverse, information extracted from them can result in significant benefits for companies and organizations. However, handling XBEs can entail several challenges especially when potential data quality issues, such as a lack of reliability on XBEs provided by a large and heterogeneous group of (anonymous) sources, need to be handled. In this dissertation, challenges connected with the characterization, processing and quality of XBEs have been handled. Thereby, it is studied if and how existing and novel concepts and methods in the area of computational intelligence can be used to characterize and process XBEs in such a way that one can adequately handle data quality issues on subjective data provided by a large and heterogeneous group of respondents. It has been shown that existing and novel concepts and methods connected to fuzzy set theory, which aims to find approximate, achievable and robust solutions, can be used to address these challenges. Among the novel proposed concepts, augmented appraisal degrees and augmented (Atanassov) intuitionistic fuzzy sets are deemed to be the most important contributions of this dissertation

Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review

YesSystem safety, reliability and risk analysis are important tasks that are performed throughout the system lifecycle to ensure the dependability of safety-critical systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approaches are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). Growing complexity of modern systems and their capability of behaving dynamically make it challenging for classical PRA techniques to analyse such systems accurately. For a comprehensive and accurate analysis of complex systems, different characteristics such as functional dependencies among components, temporal behaviour of systems, multiple failure modes/states for components/systems, and uncertainty in system behaviour and failure data are needed to be considered. Unfortunately, classical approaches are not capable of accounting for these aspects. Bayesian networks (BNs) have gained popularity in risk assessment applications due to their flexible structure and capability of incorporating most of the above mentioned aspects during analysis. Furthermore, BNs have the ability to perform diagnostic analysis. Petri Nets are another formal graphical and mathematical tool capable of modelling and analysing dynamic behaviour of systems. They are also increasingly used for system safety, reliability and risk evaluation. This paper presents a review of the applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in system safety, reliability and risk assessments. The review highlights the potential usefulness of the BN and PN based approaches over other classical approaches, and relative strengths and weaknesses in different practical application scenarios.This work was funded by the DEIS H2020 project (Grant Agreement 732242)

Uncertain Multi-Criteria Optimization Problems

Most real-world search and optimization problems naturally involve multiple criteria as objectives. Generally, symmetry, asymmetry, and anti-symmetry are basic characteristics of binary relationships used when modeling optimization problems. Moreover, the notion of symmetry has appeared in many articles about uncertainty theories that are employed in multi-criteria problems. Different solutions may produce trade-offs (conflicting scenarios) among different objectives. A better solution with respect to one objective may compromise other objectives. There are various factors that need to be considered to address the problems in multidisciplinary research, which is critical for the overall sustainability of human development and activity. In this regard, in recent decades, decision-making theory has been the subject of intense research activities due to its wide applications in different areas. The decision-making theory approach has become an important means to provide real-time solutions to uncertainty problems. Theories such as probability theory, fuzzy set theory, type-2 fuzzy set theory, rough set, and uncertainty theory, available in the existing literature, deal with such uncertainties. Nevertheless, the uncertain multi-criteria characteristics in such problems have not yet been explored in depth, and there is much left to be achieved in this direction. Hence, different mathematical models of real-life multi-criteria optimization problems can be developed in various uncertain frameworks with special emphasis on optimization problems

Risk assessment of complex engineering project based on fuzzy Petri net under the perspective of vulnerability

Traditional engineering risk management has been unable to adapt to the complexity and variability due to its constituent elements and dynamic nature of internal and external environments. Vulnerability, as a concept closely related to risk, has been neglected in the traditional risk management due to its hidden characteristics. This study attempts to quantify and evaluate vulnerabilities of complex engineering projects independently and explore the transmission mechanism between risk and vulnerability factors. Twenty different types of large-scale engineering projects in China were selected as case studies from the Mega Project Case Study Center (MPCSC) of Tongji University. Vulnerability and risk factors of each project were identified and analysed. A mechanism model was developed to explore the impacts of vulnerabilities and risks through ta Fuzzy Petri Net. Four main vulnerability-risk critical paths were identified through the reverse labelling method. The overall evaluation of engineering project risks considering the impacts of vulnerabilities is the highlight of this paper. This study interprets the cognition and evaluation of complex engineering risks from a new perspective, enriches the connotation of engineering risk management, and provides a reference for risk management and decisionmaking of complex engineering projects

Cyber Security of Critical Infrastructures

Critical infrastructures are vital assets for public safety, economic welfare, and the national security of countries. The vulnerabilities of critical infrastructures have increased with the widespread use of information technologies. As Critical National Infrastructures are becoming more vulnerable to cyber-attacks, their protection becomes a significant issue for organizations as well as nations. The risks to continued operations, from failing to upgrade aging infrastructure or not meeting mandated regulatory regimes, are considered highly significant, given the demonstrable impact of such circumstances. Due to the rapid increase of sophisticated cyber threats targeting critical infrastructures with significant destructive effects, the cybersecurity of critical infrastructures has become an agenda item for academics, practitioners, and policy makers. A holistic view which covers technical, policy, human, and behavioural aspects is essential to handle cyber security of critical infrastructures effectively. Moreover, the ability to attribute crimes to criminals is a vital element of avoiding impunity in cyberspace. In this book, both research and practical aspects of cyber security considerations in critical infrastructures are presented. Aligned with the interdisciplinary nature of cyber security, authors from academia, government, and industry have contributed 13 chapters. The issues that are discussed and analysed include cybersecurity training, maturity assessment frameworks, malware analysis techniques, ransomware attacks, security solutions for industrial control systems, and privacy preservation methods

Collected Papers (on various scientific topics), Volume XIII

This thirteenth volume of Collected Papers is an eclectic tome of 88 papers in various fields of sciences, such as astronomy, biology, calculus, economics, education and administration, game theory, geometry, graph theory, information fusion, decision making, instantaneous physics, quantum physics, neutrosophic logic and set, non-Euclidean geometry, number theory, paradoxes, philosophy of science, scientific research methods, statistics, and others, structured in 17 chapters (Neutrosophic Theory and Applications; Neutrosophic Algebra; Fuzzy Soft Sets; Neutrosophic Sets; Hypersoft Sets; Neutrosophic Semigroups; Neutrosophic Graphs; Superhypergraphs; Plithogeny; Information Fusion; Statistics; Decision Making; Extenics; Instantaneous Physics; Paradoxism; Mathematica; Miscellanea), comprising 965 pages, published between 2005-2022 in different scientific journals, by the author alone or in collaboration with the following 110 co-authors (alphabetically ordered) from 26 countries: Abduallah Gamal, Sania Afzal, Firoz Ahmad, Muhammad Akram, Sheriful Alam, Ali Hamza, Ali H. M. Al-Obaidi, Madeleine Al-Tahan, Assia Bakali, Atiqe Ur Rahman, Sukanto Bhattacharya, Bilal Hadjadji, Robert N. Boyd, Willem K.M. Brauers, Umit Cali, Youcef Chibani, Victor Christianto, Chunxin Bo, Shyamal Dalapati, Mario Dalcín, Arup Kumar Das, Elham Davneshvar, Bijan Davvaz, Irfan Deli, Muhammet Deveci, Mamouni Dhar, R. Dhavaseelan, Balasubramanian Elavarasan, Sara Farooq, Haipeng Wang, Ugur Halden, Le Hoang Son, Hongnian Yu, Qays Hatem Imran, Mayas Ismail, Saeid Jafari, Jun Ye, Ilanthenral Kandasamy, W.B. Vasantha Kandasamy, Darjan Karabašević, Abdullah Kargın, Vasilios N. Katsikis, Nour Eldeen M. Khalifa, Madad Khan, M. Khoshnevisan, Tapan Kumar Roy, Pinaki Majumdar, Sreepurna Malakar, Masoud Ghods, Minghao Hu, Mingming Chen, Mohamed Abdel-Basset, Mohamed Talea, Mohammad Hamidi, Mohamed Loey, Mihnea Alexandru Moisescu, Muhammad Ihsan, Muhammad Saeed, Muhammad Shabir, Mumtaz Ali, Muzzamal Sitara, Nassim Abbas, Munazza Naz, Giorgio Nordo, Mani Parimala, Ion Pătrașcu, Gabrijela Popović, K. Porselvi, Surapati Pramanik, D. Preethi, Qiang Guo, Riad K. Al-Hamido, Zahra Rostami, Said Broumi, Saima Anis, Muzafer Saračević, Ganeshsree Selvachandran, Selvaraj Ganesan, Shammya Shananda Saha, Marayanagaraj Shanmugapriya, Songtao Shao, Sori Tjandrah Simbolon, Florentin Smarandache, Predrag S. Stanimirović, Dragiša Stanujkić, Raman Sundareswaran, Mehmet Șahin, Ovidiu-Ilie Șandru, Abdulkadir Șengür, Mohamed Talea, Ferhat Taș, Selçuk Topal, Alptekin Ulutaș, Ramalingam Udhayakumar, Yunita Umniyati, J. Vimala, Luige Vlădăreanu, Ştefan Vlăduţescu, Yaman Akbulut, Yanhui Guo, Yong Deng, You He, Young Bae Jun, Wangtao Yuan, Rong Xia, Xiaohong Zhang, Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas, Zayen Azzouz Omar, Xiaohong Zhang, Zhirou Ma.‬‬‬‬‬‬‬