Timed colored Petri Net generating Arrays

Motivated by Interval Timed Colored Petri Net and two dimensional Array generating Petri nets, this paper defines an Array Generating Timed Colored Petri Net. In this paper time has been associated with the tokens of the net. Time associated with tokens will delay its availability as a resource. The introduction of time as an attribute of the token has an additional control over the firing sequence of the net. The focus of this paper is on the array language generated by such timed colored Petri net model.Publisher's Versio

SIMULATING EXOGENOUS SHOCKS IN COMPLEX SUPPLY NETWORKS USING MODULAR STOCHASTIC PETRI NETS

Almost all major companies are embedded in complex, global supply networks, consisting of multiple nested supply chains, and building up a high level of complexity. Exogenous shocks on these networks (e.g. natural disasters) can directly and indirectly impact companies and even cause their entire supply network to fail. However, today it is extremely difficult for a company to predict the actual impact of an exogenous shock on its supply network. Hence, companies are not able to identify adequate counteractive measures. Therefore safeguarding measures are oftentimes insufficient or even counterproductive. This paper deals with modelling, analyzing and quantifying impacts of exogenous shocks on supply networks using Petri Nets. It provides means to simulate the vulnerability of different network constellations regarding exogenous influences. In order to evaluate the proposed method, we simulate different intensities of an exogenous shock delaying the delivery for an exemplary supply network. We thereby illustrate which results could be yielded from a real-world application. For our exemplary network we find that the marginal effect of a disruption declines with an increasing intensity of shock. Moreover, the impact of shocks can be mitigated by appropriate counteractive measures like in this example by an increased safety margin of stock